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gordonm888
gordonm888
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OnceDear
March 6th, 2019 at 12:38:26 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I don't know the answer, but i'll throw back two questions:
What count are you using and why would a high count improve your chances with these side bets.
I mean, we all know how a shoe rich in tens can make an insurance bet advantageous, but surely something as simple as richness of tens does not easily correlate to an increased likelihood of a flush or three of a kind. Using a normal high low count is a pretty blunt tool, probably the wrong tool, to attack 21+3 side bet.

But at least it's something less researched than regular hi-lo counting. It just means you have more research to do from less sources.



1. I think that a shoe that is rich in the ranks 3-6 has:

- a higher probability of 3-card straight flushes that a fresh shoe ( All of those ranks are able to participate in three different straights, i.e., a 4 can participate in a 543, 432, and 32A straight.)
- In general, the odds of making some straight flushes will be elevated, namely those of these sequences : 654, 543, 765, 432. Other straight flushes will have reduced probabilities but the net effect will likely be to have more straight flushes.

2. HOWEVER, the probability of making a 3oaK -whether unsuited or suited - will go down with penetration, on average, because there are fewer and fewer cards remaining in the deck. And much of the return on this sidebet paytable comes from making 3oaKs. So, I do suspect that this paytable offers even fewer cases (less frequent instances) in which the player will have a +EV situation with computer perfect play. Indeed, the frequency of having a +EV sidebet with this paytable may be well below 1%.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
goodh2o1
goodh2o1
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March 6th, 2019 at 6:55:19 PM permalink
Thanks for the courtesy of a reply and feedback.

I'm using simple plus minus from "Playing Blackjack as a Business". Really you can't see where having counts of 19-20-21-20 at the table would not result in better chances of three of a kind or straights, some of those straights are straight flushes.

The Trulix version of this game in Missouri pays, unsuited three of a kind at 33 to 1 on the plus 3 and the top three pays 90 to 1.

Just as there are more chances for straights and flushes with a lot of high cards in the deck. The same has to be there when there are lots of small cards left in the deck. The chances of straights has to go up. The Count good or bad is an indicator to bet on the side bet.

The AP that I see is to just play Blackjack the best you can and bet the plus 3 and top 3 when it is most favorable. What I'm seeing in my case is that once the count gets to plus or minus 6 I'm seeing more pairs. Of the pairs I caught the other day, 4 of the 5 pairs dealt to my hand occurred when the count was plus 6 or more. I had a bet on 4 of the 5 occasions. There were two players and the other player caught three of a kind suited paying 1350 for a 5 dollar bet and then caught a three of a kind unsuited for 450 for a 5 dollar bet. Both of those occasions the count was plus 6 or more. The other player was betting every hand. However the winning hands were dealt with the count being plus 6 in these cases.

I had at least 4 chances for straight flushes and 5 chances for three of a kind.

Most responses I get aren't using the higher payouts figure when they are responding.

I'm probably only betting this about 30% of the time.
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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March 6th, 2019 at 7:58:00 PM permalink
Quote: goodh2o1

Thanks for the courtesy of a reply and feedback.

I'm using simple plus minus from "Playing Blackjack as a Business". Really you can't see where having counts of 19-20-21-20 at the table would not result in better chances of three of a kind or straights, some of those straights are straight flushes.

The Trulix version of this game in Missouri pays, unsuited three of a kind at 33 to 1 on the plus 3 and the top three pays 90 to 1.

Just as there are more chances for straights and flushes with a lot of high cards in the deck. The same has to be there when there are lots of small cards left in the deck. The chances of straights has to go up. The Count good or bad is an indicator to bet on the side bet.

The AP that I see is to just play Blackjack the best you can and bet the plus 3 and top 3 when it is most favorable. What I'm seeing in my case is that once the count gets to plus or minus 6 I'm seeing more pairs. Of the pairs I caught the other day, 4 of the 5 pairs dealt to my hand occurred when the count was plus 6 or more. I had a bet on 4 of the 5 occasions. There were two players and the other player caught three of a kind suited paying 1350 for a 5 dollar bet and then caught a three of a kind unsuited for 450 for a 5 dollar bet. Both of those occasions the count was plus 6 or more. The other player was betting every hand. However the winning hands were dealt with the count being plus 6 in these cases.

I had at least 4 chances for straight flushes and 5 chances for three of a kind.

Most responses I get aren't using the higher payouts figure when they are responding.

I'm probably only betting this about 30% of the time.



Here's another Wizard of Vegas thread about the Top 3 bet that uses your pay table (270/180/90): https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/29932-blackjack-side-bet-21-3-top-3/#post619154

How many decks are in the shoe? For a 6-deck shoe, I get a house edge of 11.073%.

For a 6-deck shoe, I think a hi-lo true count of 11 would be the index (edit: also, -11.) But that's ignoring the 21+3 side bet that is required to be made with the Top 3 bet.
Last edited by: ChesterDog on Mar 6, 2019
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 7th, 2019 at 1:40:02 AM permalink
Quote: goodh2o1

Thank you for the courtesy of a reply. None of the reference articles uses the correct pay table of:

3 of a kind suited paying 270-1.
Straight Flush paying 180-1.
3 of a kind unsuited 90-1.

Using these pay tables with a count of plus or minus 6 and higher is the casino advantage lower?



This is because this is not the 21+3 bet. It is an additional.bet sometimes offered, usually in conjunction with the 21+3 bet, but it is called Top3. It's determined using the same 3 cards as 21+3, but it stands alone.

The HE on this bet is approximately 9%, as published in the UK.

http://www.ukcasinotablegames.info/blackjacktop3.html
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 7th, 2019 at 2:43:13 AM permalink
Quote: goodh2o1


I'm probably only betting this about 30% of the time.

I never play these side bets, so forgive my ignorance, but..... To be eligible to play these side bets, you have to be sitting and playing the main game. Also, isn't the side bet wager size limited depending on your main bet? So, 100% of the time, your bankroll is being mostly used on a game that will tend to deplete it. If the count is +6, you are laughing, but on average it's not. Plus you would play into a -6 count just for the opportunity to exploit the side bet?
Doesn't sound like a lucrative opportunity to me.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 7th, 2019 at 2:44:43 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The HE on this bet is approximately 9%, as published in the UK.

http://www.ukcasinotablegames.info/blackjacktop3.html

OUCH!!!!!

But with volatility that would make a few lucky folk think they have the Holy Grail.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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March 7th, 2019 at 2:51:32 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

OUCH!!!!!

But with volatility that would make a few lucky folk think they have the Holy Grail.



I've played it a few times. Very fun, and I'm ahead on it lifetime. But that's still a very high HE. I think some.casinos are afraid.of it. The places I played, the limits were $1-10 only.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
goodh2o1
goodh2o1
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March 7th, 2019 at 7:02:46 AM permalink
The bets required are table minimum on blackjack and 5 dollar minimum 100 max on plus 3 and 1 to 25 on top 3.
goodh2o1
goodh2o1
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March 7th, 2019 at 7:10:14 AM permalink
If there are more chances to hit a straight with a high count because more big cards are "Cllumped" together the exact same situation exists for high negative counts.

Maybe it needs to be tweaked to say only betting it as the plus ten level or negative ten level. If there is clumping available then this bet is more vulnerable.

What I find amazing is all the poo pooing and nobody even knows the correct pay offs before trashing it.

Hell I know its a bad bet, I want to know how it changes with the count going high negative or positive, then apply the correct pay table.

Good luck to all, may you win all your splits and double downs.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
March 7th, 2019 at 9:48:20 AM permalink
Quote: goodh2o1

If there are more chances to hit a straight with a high count because more big cards are "Cllumped" together the exact same situation exists for high negative counts.



Here are two specific cases:

1) Cards remaining: 172 Running Count = -16

12 cards (3 each of each suit): 2, 7-A
16 cards (4 each of each suit): 3,4,5,6
Calculated House Edge: -0.1275

2) Cards remaining: 172 Running Count = +16

12 cards (3 each of each suit): 2-9, A
16 cards (4 each of each suit): T,J,Q,K
Calculated House Edge: -0.1197

So, you can see that being rich in cards 3-6 is better than being rich in Tens-King. This is because the Kings can only participate in making 2 straights (AKQ, and KQJ).
******************************************************
Here is how House Edge varies with the number of (full) decks in the shoe:

8 decks: -0.0900
6 decks: -0.1107
4 decks: -0.1504
3 decks: -0.1876
2 decks: -0.2545
*******************************************
Given a 6-deck shoe, if the first 24 cards out of the shoe are the 24 Aces, then the remainder of the shoe is favorable to the dealer with EV= +0.00174.

Given a 6-deck shoe, if the first 48 cards out of the shoe are the 24 Aces and 24 Deuces, then the remainder of the shoe is favorable to the dealer with EV= +0.1847.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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