Janner
Joined: Oct 21, 2010
• Posts: 4
October 21st, 2010 at 11:13:48 AM permalink
Me being interested in the "why" behind everything, my question is.. how do you calculate, for instance, P(17|2) for the dealer, assuming 6 deck S17? I tried Bayes, but it doesnt really help me.

Could anyone shed some light on this?
PapaChubby
Joined: Mar 29, 2010
• Posts: 486
October 21st, 2010 at 11:24:46 AM permalink
I'd think you'd need to create a tree of all the possible hole cards and hit cards, along with their probabilities. Then add up all the branches of the tree that lead to a 17. I'd think that a spreadsheet would be especially useful for doing this.
Janner
Joined: Oct 21, 2010
• Posts: 4
October 23rd, 2010 at 3:34:10 AM permalink
Meh, that is a whole lotta work. Guess I'll have to do that then.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 20827
October 23rd, 2010 at 6:44:44 AM permalink
Quote: PapaChubby

I'd think you'd need to create a tree of all the possible hole cards and hit cards, along with their probabilities. Then add up all the branches of the tree that lead to a 17. I'd think that a spreadsheet would be especially useful for doing this.

Yep. If you can live with an infinite deck assumption it can be done in Excel pretty easily.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Janner
Joined: Oct 21, 2010
• Posts: 4
October 25th, 2010 at 3:54:47 AM permalink
And if I wanted to do it for a 6-deck? Would simulation be the best option?
PapaChubby
Joined: Mar 29, 2010