Current Vegas BJ conditions

I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who plays at an intermediate to professional level, and has played in Vegas in the last year or so.

1. Is finding decent penetration a problem? I've seen anywhere from 33-50% of the shoe getting cut off. Can you even find 25% pen any more?

2. What about heat? Can you spread 1-8? What about 1-4? And what about red vs. green action?

3. Is cover necessary? Are they backing people off as much as, say, five years ago?

4. I would have expected that the blossoming of Idiot 6:5 has made BJ a MUCH more lucrative game for the casinos. Does that mean they watch the few remaining decent games like hawks? I remember last year playing the very good El Cortez single deck game, and spreading $5-15, and the floorman was watching me like I was an escaped murderer. Is there that kind of paranoia out there now?

The reason I ask these questions is that video poker is probably going to die out completely as an advantage game, so I'm thinking of going back to BJ.

Quote: mkl654321

1. Is finding decent penetration a problem? .

I thought penetration was illegal in the city limits. Don't you have to go to Pahrump for that?

Quote: EvenBob

I thought penetration was illegal in the city limits. Don't you have to go to Pahrump for that?

3. Is cover necessary?

Gotta use a cover.

Quote: mkl654321

I remember last year playing the very good El Cortez single deck game, and spreading $5-15, and the floorman was watching me like I was an escaped murderer. Is there that kind of paranoia out there now?

El Co is well known for heat on their single deck game. I believe only 1-2 spread is tolerated usually.

-B

1. Shoe penetraion is usually 75%. By that I mean that 75% of the cards are dealt before the cut card.
2. In a shoe you can spread 1 to 4 no problem. 1 to 8 is pushing it.
3. Yes at 1 to 8. Tollerance is about the same as five years ago, but I don't count much any more, so could be wrong on that.
4. Yes, the good games get watched more carefully. Some counters have taken to counting 6-5 games, because they can get away with so much more.

Quote: Wizard

1. Shoe penetraion is usually 75%. By that I mean that 75% of the cards are dealt before the cut card.
2. In a shoe you can spread 1 to 4 no problem. 1 to 8 is pushing it.
3. Yes at 1 to 8. Tollerance is about the same as five years ago, but I don't count much any more, so could be wrong on that.
4. Yes, the good games get watched more carefully. Some counters have taken to counting 6-5 games, because they can get away with so much more.

1. What would you consider the minimum penetration you would need to make a game viable?
2. Is a 1-4 spread good enough to beat a shoe game (Strip rules) using a single-level count (with Ace adjustments)?
3. Are there any venues you are aware of where 1-8 might pass unnoticed, if the bets were $5-40?
4. Is it actually possible to beat a 6:5 game, given the horrendous off-the-top disadvantage? I would think you'd have to spread 1-20 or something insane like that.

Quote: mkl654321

1. What would you consider the minimum penetration you would need to make a game viable?
2. Is a 1-4 spread good enough to beat a shoe game (Strip rules) using a single-level count (with Ace adjustments)?
3. Are there any venues you are aware of where 1-8 might pass unnoticed, if the bets were $5-40?
4. Is it actually possible to beat a 6:5 game, given the horrendous off-the-top disadvantage? I would think you'd have to spread 1-20 or something insane like that.

1. 75% is good enough, and easy to find.
2. My educated guess is 1-4 would only barely beat the game, like 0.3% advantage. Not enough to bother. There is software, like Casino Verite that does these simulations.
3. I think you'd be fine playing $5-$40 anywhere. Few places will sweat red chip action.
4. I think such counters were spreading 1-20 in those games. Again, Casino Verite is good for plugging in rules, penetration, spread, and count strategy used, and it will tell you the edge, in break it more ways than you could ever think to use.

Quote: mkl654321

I'd be interested in hearing from anyone who plays at an intermediate to professional level, and has played in Vegas in the last year or so.

1. Is finding decent penetration a problem? I've seen anywhere from 33-50% of the shoe getting cut off. Can you even find 25% pen any more?

2. What about heat? Can you spread 1-8? What about 1-4? And what about red vs. green action?

3. Is cover necessary? Are they backing people off as much as, say, five years ago?

4. I would have expected that the blossoming of Idiot 6:5 has made BJ a MUCH more lucrative game for the casinos. Does that mean they watch the few remaining decent games like hawks? I remember last year playing the very good El Cortez single deck game, and spreading $5-15, and the floorman was watching me like I was an escaped murderer. Is there that kind of paranoia out there now?

The reason I ask these questions is that video poker is probably going to die out completely as an advantage game, so I'm thinking of going back to BJ.

I was last in Vegas the week leading up to July 4th. I played six days in a row at Mandalay Bay in six deck shoes with a 0.28% house edge. Table minimums were $10 and I found a couple of dealers who cut off 1 1/4 decks for a good 80% pen. I never saw anything less than 75%.

I had no problem spreading 1-8. My only cover consisted of doubling my base bet immediately after buying in so it would be recorded and always making sure my high bets had some red chips in them. My wife and daughter would frequently come by the table to tell me about their slot escapades, so I think we came off as typical tourists.

By the end of the week, I was getting light heat in the form of excessive chatting by the floor. I got the feeling that they were trying to get me to drop the count. They repeatedly asked if I wanted to be rated, which is unusual at low limit tables. I told them my wife was using my card while playing two slot machines and that seemed to satisfy them. I realize that this is only one casino and that conditions constantly change but there are still decent games out there.

A 1-4 spread is a little weak, however in the above game that I described a 1-4 spread with 75% pen should yield a modest profit. Don't forget this particular game was S17 and surrender.

I visited the El Cortez twice and was told by a reliable source that they were on another one of their barring crusades and that non counters had gotten barred for spreading 1-4. I didn't play there.

I have never played 6/5 blackjack but know people who do and claim it can be beaten with huge spreads. There are strategy changes too such as always take even money. The problem is a lot of houses won't offer it. Not my cup of tea right now.

Go for it mkl, it's like riding a bike!

Benbakdoff, nice story. I think MB has some of the better conditions in LV. How long were your sessions? They might have actually wanted to get your card so they could rate you, and didn't have any ulterior motive. If you played for a long time, they may have gotten suspicious, however. How did you do over the week based on how many hours you put in? What was your expected win rate and did you spread $10-$80 or something else?

I don't think it would be worth the effort to count down 6/5 games. I have heard that some people do very well in the East on the good Spanish 21 games, where there is a .40% H.E. and little to no heat. The counting method is of course different.

I'm not a counter myself but I enjoy hearing and talking about it.

Are you saying that even if I don't count cards I could get heat from varying my bet amount? I know betting systems don't work, but I also know it is hard to make any money flat betting. You have to have a way to make more of your wins at higher bets and take more of your losses at lower bets, which is what card counting and bet spreads are all about.

Quote: jackblack21

I know betting systems don't work, but I also know it is hard to make any money flat betting.

It's not just hard, it's impossible. Positive games off the top haven't existed for 30+ years.* Some stores will throw you out if you spread even if you're not counting. The El Cortez is the most notorious for doing this, and in fact is the only one I've heard of that does it. (The Western used to do it before they got rid of their good games). Most strip joints, and locals joints even, don't care if you spread if your action is generally small.

*(Your video game in NC notwithstanding)

Quote: teddys

Benbakdoff, nice story. I think MB has some of the better conditions in LV. How long were your sessions? They might have actually wanted to get your card so they could rate you, and didn't have any ulterior motive. If you played for a long time, they may have gotten suspicious, however. How did you do over the week based on how many hours you put in? What was your expected win rate and did you spread $10-$80 or something else?

I don't think it would be worth the effort to count down 6/5 games. I have heard that some people do very well in the East on the good Spanish 21 games, where there is a .40% H.E. and little to no heat. The counting method is of course different.

I'm not a counter myself but I enjoy hearing and talking about it.

I did indeed spread $10-$80. As I mentioned, my first bet was doubled hoping that my max bet would be seen as only a four unit increase. Sometimes it works. I also had two hands out at 75% when the time was right.(2x $60)

Wonging out was easy- I was able to do it without getting up most of the time.

I played about five hours a day logging 28 hours for the week. Ever the optimist I was hoping to win 2 units per hour even though the expected rate was probably more like 1-1 1/4 units per hour. I finished the week ahead 61 units, however 36 of those were won in one day. The rest of the time was the usual give and take.

You could be right about the heat. I admit I'm probably overly sensitive to it ,but they never asked me about being rated until my fifth visit. My wife actually did use my card at the slots, so it worked out fine.

Quote: teddys

Some stores will throw you out if you spread even if you're not counting. The El Cortez is the most notorious for doing this

I've heard that South Point (same ownership, totally different crowd) has the same policy of prompt reaction to high bet spreads. If you've just arrived and couldn't possibly be counting they still react to a sudden increase in bet size.

Played about three hours for the first time in a while this weekend. Double deck 3-2 and if the first hands had small cards I kept count, otherwise didn't bother. Moved between $5 to $20 and was handed a pair of fuzzy dice and a couple dollar off coupons for the food court. Penetration wasn't that great. Other guys at the table were spreading $5 to $100+ and the pit was loving them for it. . .

Quote: FleaStiff

I've heard that South Point (same ownership, totally different crowd) has the same policy of prompt reaction to high bet spreads. If you've just arrived and couldn't possibly be counting they still react to a sudden increase in bet size.

South Point just instituted a policy of CANCELING the player's cards of customers who only play their best video poker games (which are breakeven at best, and slightly positive on rare double point days). It seems that paranoia is their new modus operandi. That will kill them as their good games were the only reason to go way, way, way down there (though I would still make a trip to eat at their prime rib joint).

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