Wizard
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Wizard
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April 9th, 2018 at 8:17:46 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Let me make it clear that I am not criticizing Mike Shackleford - he did not do these calculations and this is not his dumpster fire.



Thanks, but I'll take some heat for this. I made some transcription errors from the BMM report, but I think that may be in error too. Let me at least post my own infinite-deck strategies. Stay tuned.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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April 9th, 2018 at 8:38:37 PM permalink
Bravo, you really knocked it out of the park, Gordon. So much for me to digest, and I will still not understand everything. The points about 10-10 v 7 and the dealer making 22 must be answered. I'm sorry I'm going to be offline the next few days, I want to see how this all works out. This is so interesting and you did a lot of work, and it looks like there is more to come from the Wizard. I'm on the edge of my seat. I'll print this out and try to study the differences while I travel.

THANK YOU.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 10th, 2018 at 6:47:44 AM permalink
Here are my infinite-deck strategies. These still may have some mistakes.



It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 10th, 2018 at 6:54:14 AM permalink
Gordon, we have differences all over the place. May I ask for your EV numbers for a player 16 to 21 standing against a dealer 2 with a small hole card?

Here are my values:

Player EV Stand
16 -0.327764
17 -0.146722
18 0.160033
19 0.394391
20 0.608178
21 0.813650
Last edited by: Wizard on Apr 10, 2018
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Romes
Romes
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Thanks for this post from:
Hunterhillbobbartop
April 10th, 2018 at 8:16:49 AM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

...I'll be offline for a couple days, I am looking forward to your findings and taking the knowledge up to Table Mountain.

Where is Romes in this thread? He's got a good brain, he should like this stuff.

Did Gordon say "double hard 8 v. Ten"?

Color met flattered bobbartop =)... to be honest I was investigating this privately with another member for our own personal greedy reasons =). Was kinda hoping this thread just died at the time lol.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
charliepatrick
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April 10th, 2018 at 9:04:15 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

...

Player EV Stand
16 -0.327764
17 -0.146722
18 0.160033
19 0.394391
20 0.608178
21 0.813650


I've only had a quick look and agree your 16 and 17 figure. It looks as if I have an error with my higher values (also I'm ignoring some 20s winning vs 22s at this stage) and get the following...

 0.899671098
0.608178243
0.394390647
0.160033043
-0.146722236
-0.327764348
edited figures - which correspond with yours except for the 21 figure which will win against dealer 22.
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Apr 10, 2018
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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April 10th, 2018 at 9:25:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Gordon, we have differences all over the place. May I ask for your EV numbers for a player 16 to 21 standing against a dealer 2 with a small hole card?

Here are my values:

Player EV Stand
16 -0.327764
17 -0.146722
18 0.160033
19 0.394391
20 0.608178
21 0.813650



I appreciate the opportunity to compare.

My dealer probabilities for 17-22 are not infinite deck. They are based on 6 decks such that a dealer hand with multiple cards of the same rank has a lower probability than with an infinite deck. This may lead to small differences between our numbers. My numbers are:

Player EV-Stand
16 -0.3260876
17 -0.145049
18 0.161052
19 0.394613
20 (not TT) 0.6078688
20 -TT 0.694298
21 0.8995276


The big difference appears to be in player 21. I wonder if you may have overlooked the rule that dealer 22 loses (not pushes) against player 21 and 20 (TT).

Also, you appear to have posted the same strategy for Small and Medium Hole Cards?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
bobbartop
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April 10th, 2018 at 10:18:27 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Color met flattered bobbartop =)... to be honest I was investigating this privately with another member for our own personal greedy reasons =). Was kinda hoping this thread just died at the time lol.



That's funny, I did actually think to myself, "Gee, I hope I'm not messing up anyone's opportunity to beat the crowd on this". Sorry about that.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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April 10th, 2018 at 1:39:11 PM permalink
I just found a weird error in my basic strategy model that produced a wrong value of EV when you split a pair of threes!

Correcting that, I now agree that when dealer has a Small Hole Card that player should HIT "3-3 vs 2" and "3-3 vs 3." I had previously recommended that player should split those hands.

However, correcting that error doesn't seem to flip any of the other decisions in my strategy charts.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Apr 10, 2018
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 10th, 2018 at 1:59:58 PM permalink
Thanks again for everybody's help. Let me catch up here.

First, yes, I didn't count that a 21 wins against a 22 in my Small Card strategy nor that table of EV's. In my defense, it looks like I did do it correctly for the other two strategies.

Second, I had a titling error, which caused the Small Card strategy to be given the file name for both the Small and Medium card strategies. Stupid.

For what little it is worth, I think I stand by my previous High Card strategy.

Let me make my due corrections. First those expected values for standing against a 2 and Small Card in the hole.


Player EV stand
16 -0.327764
17 -0.146722
18 0.160033
19 0.394391
20* 0.608178
10,10 0.694199
21 0.899671


* Any 20 other than two tens.

Here are my new basic strategies. You may need to close and reopen your browsers to clear the old ones from the cache because I overwrote the previous strategies.





It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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