Question about Down Under Blackjack
April 9th, 2018 at 8:17:46 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Let me make it clear that I am not criticizing Mike Shackleford - he did not do these calculations and this is not his dumpster fire.
Thanks, but I'll take some heat for this. I made some transcription errors from the BMM report, but I think that may be in error too. Let me at least post my own infinite-deck strategies. Stay tuned.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
April 9th, 2018 at 8:38:37 PM
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Bravo, you really knocked it out of the park, Gordon. So much for me to digest, and I will still not understand everything. The points about 10-10 v 7 and the dealer making 22 must be answered. I'm sorry I'm going to be offline the next few days, I want to see how this all works out. This is so interesting and you did a lot of work, and it looks like there is more to come from the Wizard. I'm on the edge of my seat. I'll print this out and try to study the differences while I travel.
THANK YOU.
THANK YOU.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
April 10th, 2018 at 6:47:44 AM
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Here are my infinite-deck strategies. These still may have some mistakes.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
April 10th, 2018 at 6:54:14 AM
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Gordon, we have differences all over the place. May I ask for your EV numbers for a player 16 to 21 standing against a dealer 2 with a small hole card?
Here are my values:
Here are my values:
| Player | EV Stand |
| 16 | -0.327764 |
| 17 | -0.146722 |
| 18 | 0.160033 |
| 19 | 0.394391 |
| 20 | 0.608178 |
| 21 | 0.813650 |
Last edited by: Wizard on Apr 10, 2018
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
April 10th, 2018 at 8:16:49 AM
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Color met flattered bobbartop =)... to be honest I was investigating this privately with another member for our own personal greedy reasons =). Was kinda hoping this thread just died at the time lol.Quote: bobbartop...I'll be offline for a couple days, I am looking forward to your findings and taking the knowledge up to Table Mountain.
Where is Romes in this thread? He's got a good brain, he should like this stuff.
Did Gordon say "double hard 8 v. Ten"?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
April 10th, 2018 at 9:04:15 AM
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Quote: Wizard...
Player EV Stand 16 -0.327764 17 -0.146722 18 0.160033 19 0.394391 20 0.608178 21 0.813650
I've only had a quick look and agree your 16 and 17 figure. It looks as if I have an error with my higher values (also I'm ignoring some 20s winning vs 22s at this stage) and get the following...
0.899671098
0.608178243
0.394390647
0.160033043
-0.146722236
-0.327764348
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Apr 10, 2018
April 10th, 2018 at 9:25:43 AM
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Quote: WizardGordon, we have differences all over the place. May I ask for your EV numbers for a player 16 to 21 standing against a dealer 2 with a small hole card?
Here are my values:
Player EV Stand 16 -0.327764 17 -0.146722 18 0.160033 19 0.394391 20 0.608178 21 0.813650
I appreciate the opportunity to compare.
My dealer probabilities for 17-22 are not infinite deck. They are based on 6 decks such that a dealer hand with multiple cards of the same rank has a lower probability than with an infinite deck. This may lead to small differences between our numbers. My numbers are:
| Player | EV-Stand |
| 16 | -0.3260876 |
| 17 | -0.145049 |
| 18 | 0.161052 |
| 19 | 0.394613 |
| 20 (not TT) | 0.6078688 |
| 20 -TT | 0.694298 |
| 21 | 0.8995276 |
The big difference appears to be in player 21. I wonder if you may have overlooked the rule that dealer 22 loses (not pushes) against player 21 and 20 (TT).
Also, you appear to have posted the same strategy for Small and Medium Hole Cards?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
April 10th, 2018 at 10:18:27 AM
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Quote: RomesColor met flattered bobbartop =)... to be honest I was investigating this privately with another member for our own personal greedy reasons =). Was kinda hoping this thread just died at the time lol.
That's funny, I did actually think to myself, "Gee, I hope I'm not messing up anyone's opportunity to beat the crowd on this". Sorry about that.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
April 10th, 2018 at 1:39:11 PM
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I just found a weird error in my basic strategy model that produced a wrong value of EV when you split a pair of threes!
Correcting that, I now agree that when dealer has a Small Hole Card that player should HIT "3-3 vs 2" and "3-3 vs 3." I had previously recommended that player should split those hands.
However, correcting that error doesn't seem to flip any of the other decisions in my strategy charts.
Correcting that, I now agree that when dealer has a Small Hole Card that player should HIT "3-3 vs 2" and "3-3 vs 3." I had previously recommended that player should split those hands.
However, correcting that error doesn't seem to flip any of the other decisions in my strategy charts.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Apr 10, 2018
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
April 10th, 2018 at 1:59:58 PM
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Thanks again for everybody's help. Let me catch up here.
First, yes, I didn't count that a 21 wins against a 22 in my Small Card strategy nor that table of EV's. In my defense, it looks like I did do it correctly for the other two strategies.
Second, I had a titling error, which caused the Small Card strategy to be given the file name for both the Small and Medium card strategies. Stupid.
For what little it is worth, I think I stand by my previous High Card strategy.
Let me make my due corrections. First those expected values for standing against a 2 and Small Card in the hole.
* Any 20 other than two tens.
Here are my new basic strategies. You may need to close and reopen your browsers to clear the old ones from the cache because I overwrote the previous strategies.
First, yes, I didn't count that a 21 wins against a 22 in my Small Card strategy nor that table of EV's. In my defense, it looks like I did do it correctly for the other two strategies.
Second, I had a titling error, which caused the Small Card strategy to be given the file name for both the Small and Medium card strategies. Stupid.
For what little it is worth, I think I stand by my previous High Card strategy.
Let me make my due corrections. First those expected values for standing against a 2 and Small Card in the hole.
| Player | EV stand |
| 16 | -0.327764 |
| 17 | -0.146722 |
| 18 | 0.160033 |
| 19 | 0.394391 |
| 20* | 0.608178 |
| 10,10 | 0.694199 |
| 21 | 0.899671 |
* Any 20 other than two tens.
Here are my new basic strategies. You may need to close and reopen your browsers to clear the old ones from the cache because I overwrote the previous strategies.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” -- Carl Sagan
