blackjacklad
blackjacklad
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Joined: Dec 14, 2017
December 14th, 2017 at 3:38:04 PM permalink
A casino near me has recently added an interesting sidebet which I think can be beaten with a counting system. I can't find any evidence anywhere of this particular sidebet being discussed, apologies if I've missed it.

The Blackjack game is fairly standard UK rules: Dealt from a shu, 4 decks, dealer stands soft 17, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed, no surrender, dealer doesn't peek, unlimited resplits, only 1 card to split aces. Typical penetration of 75%.

The sidebet allows bets of between £1-£5. If the player gets Blackjack the payouts on this sidebet are:

Blackjack (different colour): 10 to 1
Blackjack (same colour, different suit): 15 to 1
Blackjack (suited): 40 to 1

My questions are:
1) Can anybody calculate the house edge of this sidebet? (Or point me to a resource so I can calculate it myself).
2) Can anybody think of a counting system or method of developing one which could beat this sidebet? My initial thoughts are that keeping a count of the aces in relation to the number of cards left in the pack one would know once the point was reached that playing became EV+. I'm just not sure how to calculate the point at which the density of aces makes it worth playing.
miplet
miplet
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Joined: Dec 1, 2009
December 14th, 2017 at 4:02:02 PM permalink
Quote: blackjacklad

A casino near me has recently added an interesting sidebet which I think can be beaten with a counting system. I can't find any evidence anywhere of this particular sidebet being discussed, apologies if I've missed it.

The Blackjack game is fairly standard UK rules: Dealt from a shu, 4 decks, dealer stands soft 17, double any 2 cards, double after split allowed, no surrender, dealer doesn't peek, unlimited resplits, only 1 card to split aces. Typical penetration of 75%.

The sidebet allows bets of between £1-£5. If the player gets Blackjack the payouts on this sidebet are:

Blackjack (different colour): 10 to 1
Blackjack (same colour, different suit): 15 to 1
Blackjack (suited): 40 to 1

My questions are:
1) Can anybody calculate the house edge of this sidebet? (Or point me to a resource so I can calculate it myself).
2) Can anybody think of a counting system or method of developing one which could beat this sidebet? My initial thoughts are that keeping a count of the aces in relation to the number of cards left in the pack one would know once the point was reached that playing became EV+. I'm just not sure how to calculate the point at which the density of aces makes it worth playing.


I have a spreadsheet at http://miplet.net/blackjack/ . Just download the bj bounty one. You can edit the pays and deck composition. Here is your pay table with 4 decks:

EventPaysCommbinationsProbabilityReturn
Suited402560.011891490150.4756596061
Colored152560.011891490150.1783723523
Mixed105120.02378298030.237829803
Loser-1205040.9524340394-0.9524340394
Total215281-0.06057227796
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
tyler498
tyler498
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Joined: Jun 24, 2017
December 15th, 2017 at 7:10:23 AM permalink
It is definitely countable. would be so great if the max bet was higher than 5£ though.
The 6% HE is very small for a side bet and can easily be overcome if the probability of BJ is increased by about 13%. I don't have simulation software to give you exact values, but based on miplet's reply and this https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount6.htm
my educated guess would be that it becomes +EV at TC+2, I would play it at TC>+3.
Romes
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
December 15th, 2017 at 7:56:04 AM permalink
It's countable... It's worth very little with a max bet of $5... I wouldn't use a separate counting system for this. I would just count the game regularly and anything TC +3 or higher I'd play the $5 euro. Also my educated guess at the moment.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
blackjacklad
blackjacklad
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Joined: Dec 14, 2017
December 15th, 2017 at 11:18:06 AM permalink
Thanks miplet really appreciate that, it's exactly what I was looking for!
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