Good Penetration

The casino where I have been playing lately has probably 90% pen. literally on both their 6 and 8 deck shoes at the end of the shoe there will be less than a deck left, one shoe the dealer pulled the remaining cards and said look 10 cards left, usually its about 1/2 a deck. I have played there 3 times first time was a loss but last two have been real good. I use hi-lo with a conservative spread of 1-6. Their rules are h17 3-2 bj , split to 4, das, double any two cards. Is this a beatable game? Any advice? Suggestions? I am fairly new to counting and have tried several things in Blackjack but like hi-lo for me.

My girlfirends likes good penetration also

Quote: dwight56

The casino where I have been playing lately has probably 90% pen. literally on both their 6 and 8 deck shoes at the end of the shoe there will be less than a deck left, one shoe the dealer pulled the remaining cards and said look 10 cards left, usually its about 1/2 a deck. I have played there 3 times first time was a loss but last two have been real good. I use hi-lo with a conservative spread of 1-6. Their rules are h17 3-2 bj , split to 4, das, double any two cards. Is this a beatable game? Any advice? Suggestions? I am fairly new to counting and have tried several things in Blackjack but like hi-lo for me.

H17 is a bummer, but sounds possibly beatable. However, as a new counter, you must not fall into the trap of being under capitalized. Bankroll at risk might well need to be several tens of thousand dollars or else you might be extremely likely to get wiped out. Also, it could be a counter trap from which you get identified, 86d and maybe buried in the desert,,, ok skip that last one. It's not an Indan casino is it? How easy would it be to backcount or wong in or out mid shoe?
Suggest trying to elicit input from Romes, Wizard, Stabworld or just about anyone except sidthesquid :o)

Plenty beatable.

Quote: dwight56

The casino where I have been playing lately has probably 90% pen. literally on both their 6 and 8 deck shoes at the end of the shoe there will be less than a deck left, one shoe the dealer pulled the remaining cards and said look 10 cards left, usually its about 1/2 a deck. I have played there 3 times first time was a loss but last two have been real good. I use hi-lo with a conservative spread of 1-6. Their rules are h17 3-2 bj , split to 4, das, double any two cards. Is this a beatable game? Any advice? Suggestions? I am fairly new to counting and have tried several things in Blackjack but like hi-lo for me.

The first thing you are going to want to do is read Romes' three, "A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack," Articles:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

If there is a more succinct, yet information-packed resource out there on card counting, I've yet to see it. Excellent for new and aspiring counters.

Now, you didn't mention Surrender or how Splitting Aces is treated. I would assume you can Surrender, but cannot Re-Split Aces or Hit Split Aces, but you can go here yourself:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/

And pop in the specific Rules to get a House Edge.

In addition to your stated Rules, I have a House Edge range for six decks at:

0.28411% HE (Optimal) ---- 0.61563% HE (Optimal)

And, for eight decks:

0.30602% HE (Optimal) --- 0.64493% HE (Optimal)

Most relevant seems to be Hit Split Aces, which I seriously doubt you can do.

Now, Blackjack is not even close to being a field of expertise for me, and you will invariably get better and more specific advice as more people respond to this thread, but here are a few observations I have.

1.) High-Low

-High-Low is a tried and true card-counting style that is used by recreational counters as well as people who play Blackjack (in whole or part) for a living alike. There are many other mostly more complicated counts out there and complicated Index Plays that go along with those counts, but many individuals have said that for the ease of play, it is better for them just to operate with High/Low and sacrifice a little value.

2.) Insurance:

-Make sure to take Insurance at a TC of +3 (I believe) or greater. My understanding is that is some 1/3rd of your total value.

3.) Spread:

Again, not an expert, but 1-6 seems a little low. I think 1-8 is closer to standard.

4.) The Game:

That seems like neither a great or terrible BJ base game, but highly countable given the penetration you are suggesting.

5.) Wong In/Out:

Is that something you think you could do without drawing too much heat?

BEST THREAD TITLE EVER! I laughed so hard, yes I am immature.

Thanks for your help, there is no surrender, split aces up to 4 times buy no hitting of split aces

where did you say this casino was?

I have the exact same rules in my neck of the woods except they are all 6 decks. I'd recommend keeping your state private in favor of a wider region like "Midwest"

Totally beatable. Make sure you know pefect basic strategy and can keep the count accurately. The 90% pen is really good and better than the vast majority of games in the country. Heat will be a factor probably. Try to back count if you can and jump in for only positive shoes. If you do a play all style you should up the spread to 12 to 1 assuming you have a proper bankroll.

Quote: dwight56

The casino where I have been playing lately has probably 90% pen. literally on both their 6 and 8 deck shoes at the end of the shoe there will be less than a deck left, one shoe the dealer pulled the remaining cards and said look 10 cards left, usually its about 1/2 a deck. I have played there 3 times first time was a loss but last two have been real good. I use hi-lo with a conservative spread of 1-6. Their rules are h17 3-2 bj , split to 4, das, double any two cards. Is this a beatable game? Any advice? Suggestions? I am fairly new to counting and have tried several things in Blackjack but like hi-lo for me.

Penetration is everything to a counter. It basically makes any rule set obsolete, so unless of course the game is completely unplayable, which your game doesn't seem to be from what you listed, then you can make a really nice hourly depending on your bet size. Of course hourly in blackjack always looks better on paper than anything. It takes a long time for you to realize that hourly, not to mention the roller coaster of emotions that you will go through and the discipline it will take to persevere throughout.

Card counting blackjack is probably the worst AP play out there due to the combination of it being such a grind and most importantly because the casinos sweat the action for no reason and then proceed to kick you out. If these casinos actually let you play nonstop, card counting in my opinion would probably be up there in terms of AP plays, but with all the documentaries and books that have come out, it's just a tough gig to make any decent money at now. You really need a huge rotation of stores, play short sessions, and be willing to travel if you're anywhere near the $100 an hour range.

Quote: dwight56

The casino where I have been playing lately has probably 90% pen. literally on both their 6 and 8 deck shoes at the end of the shoe there will be less than a deck left, one shoe the dealer pulled the remaining cards and said look 10 cards left, usually its about 1/2 a deck. I have played there 3 times first time was a loss but last two have been real good. I use hi-lo with a conservative spread of 1-6. Their rules are h17 3-2 bj , split to 4, das, double any two cards. Is this a beatable game? Any advice? Suggestions? I am fairly new to counting and have tried several things in Blackjack but like hi-lo for me.

Everyone has jumped on and said the game is beatable... yes, and I argree... but is it PLAYABLE???

New counters often get stuck on the rules of the game, or something that I personally wouldn't even have near the top of my "check list." You can have the best game in the world, but if they don't let you spread without kicking you out, the game is worthless. That's why HEAT is, and always will be, the #1 thing to check for me:

1) Heat/Tollerence
2) Penetration
3) Side Bets
4) Speed
5) Rules/HE

I'm a huge fan of believing the majority of EV for counters are at the 'mediocre' rules games. Why? Because the other more important "checks" are so good... such as 0 heat, 90%+ penetration, and hopefully a beatable side bet =). With just no heat and great Pen though you can BLAST AWAY with a really good SCORE for a long time. That makes the game worth the most, in my opinion. Some new counters get hung up on "But this HE is .25%, which means I'll make $X more per hour in the long run!" but they fail to factor in the heat that comes with that good game, and the fact that they won't ever be able to play it NEARLY as long, or as hard (yes, I snuck that in in this PENETRATION thread).

I know my spread is a little low, but that is for two reasons I have only been counting for a short amount of time although I have practice a lot, and I don t want to draw unwanted attention. I spread from 10-60 I am not a high roller by any means, if its a five dollar table and the TC goes to -2 or more I leave or drop to 5 dollar bet. I did try other easy counts, such as ace-5 and speed count but did not like the results, so moved to high-low. As far as Casino location it is in the mid west. Thanks everyone for the replys and advice. I may change to a 1-8 spread on 10 dollar table and on 5 dollar table I could use 5 dollars for a min. bet and have a 1-16 spread or 5-20-40-60-80.

Thanks Romes, and what do you consider a beatable side bet?

Quote: dwight56

Thanks Romes, and what do you consider a beatable side bet?

Romes, that's my question too.

Side bet is more important than rules? Hmm...

I can't think of a side bet that has even reasonably good HE (that is, a bad HE, but better than most side bets) unless it ALSO is countable.

Maybe because even if it's bad, betting it is good cover?

I don't have a wide selection of side bets where I play, but it doesn't matter because I don't play them because I thought they were universally horrible.

Till now.

The rules are extremely important. A liberal rule set means you will have a strong advantage at a low true count and thus a lot more opportunities to bet with an advantage, and bigger advantages to bet with. Penetration, rules and game speed are all very important in determining your hourly rate.

Well well well, you boys and girls are definitely living in the land of milk and honey, with your 8 deck ,less than one deck cut, multi split and double downs, plus end of shoe shuffle. Oh lar de dar bloody dar.
I can see the happy ,happy, now ,now ohhhh right now glow of deep penetration, here we get the dry shaft of back entry phalange on our mandatory shuffle after each hand blackjack. Must be nice walking away from a table without bowed legs and a sore back.
Nevada you say. Sounds good to me 2out of 3 aint bad. Better odds(1), sand (2)but no ocean (3)
Shoot no wonder everybody wants to live there.
Good luck to you all. gotta lay down now , backs a bit sore, gotta get to hair salon as my hair all mussed up as well.
Kind regards

That penetration is a dream! definitely beatable.
As others mentioned before, great pen with ok rules is so much better than ok pen with great rules, and one important thing is it also makes wonging a lot more useful. Since your average HE is almost -0.6%, I would highly recommend aggressive wonging if you can get away with it.

Quote: dwight56

Thanks Romes, and what do you consider a beatable side bet?

Quote: racquet

Romes, that's my question too....

Lucky Ladies is one. Just type beatable blackjack side bets in to google =).

Quote: BlackjackGuy123

The rules are extremely important. A liberal rule set means you will have a strong advantage at a low true count and thus a lot more opportunities to bet with an advantage, and bigger advantages to bet with. Penetration, rules and game speed are all very important in determining your hourly rate.

They're something to consider, but definitely not in the top 3 even of things that are most important. Sure, you don't want to play 6:5, but if you're between H17 and S17 (commonly .42% HE and .66% HE) the much more important thing is "how long and how hard can I hit this game?" If you can play the .42% for 30 min before being asked to leave but you can sit at the .66% table and spread 1-20 all night, then lol the .66% HE game is beyond the better game.

Quote: Romes

"how long and how hard can I hit this?"

Really?

Quote: gordonm888

Really?

HEY HEY HEY... the full quote says "game" at the end =)... I threw game in because otherwise I thought it would be a bit too on the nose =D.