DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
October 29th, 2017 at 11:12:47 AM permalink
Yabbut, according to Dunning-Kruger's research, that garden variety excessively self-esteemed mediocre stuff is nothing special; it gets much worse than that. Because the BELOW average person will 'know' he's even farther above average than the merely mediocre person does, and the most profoundly incompetent mentally impaired individuals will often 'know' with the greatest certainty that they are the most skillful of all. Meantime, those who are objectively quite competent will tend to believe they're merely doing some simple easy stuff that they feel practically everyone would naturally be able do.

Dunning & Kruger's original academic study:
Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (1999)

Or a more easily readable short version: Why losers have delusions of grandeur
Quote:

Charles Darwin observed that “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.” That was certainly true on the day in 1995 when a man named McArthur Wheeler boldly robbed two banks in Pittsburgh without using a disguise. Security camera footage of him was broadcast on the evening news the same day as the robberies, and he was arrested an hour later. Mr. Wheeler was surprised when the police explained how they had used the surveillance tapes to catch him. “But I wore the juice,” he mumbled incredulously. He seemed to believe that rubbing his face with lemon juice would blur his image and make him impossible to catch.


For daily illustration of the Dunning-Kruger text, see also the WoV forums: esp. any random baccarat horoscope discoverer, dice spell caster, roulette telepathy, or brilliant drooler political pontification thread.

Conclusion: Civilization is most likely doomed, in due course. But on the bright side, doom will probably take a while, because those who are sure of their causes are slow.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1194
October 29th, 2017 at 11:14:46 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

No, dealers don't care if someone is counting. I've been a Pit Boss. Shift Manager and Table Games Director.


ZCore13



Interesting. I just sent you a PM.
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1194
October 29th, 2017 at 11:21:24 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Yabbut, according to Dunning-Kruger's research, that garden variety excessively self-esteemed mediocre stuff is nothing special; it gets much worse than that. Because the BELOW average person will 'know' he's even farther above average than the merely mediocre person does, and the most profoundly incompetent mentally impaired individuals will often 'know' with the greatest certainty that they are the most skillful of all. Meantime, those who are objectively quite competent will tend to believe they're merely doing some simple easy stuff that they feel practically everyone would naturally be able do.

Dunning & Kruger's original academic study:
Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (1999)

Or a more easily readable short version: Why losers have delusions of grandeur

For daily illustration of the Dunning-Kruger text, see also the WoV forums: esp. any random baccarat horoscope discoverer, dice spell caster, roulette telepathy, or brilliant drooler political pontification thread.

Conclusion: Civilization is most likely doomed, in due course. But on the bright side, doom will probably take a while, because those who are sure of their causes are slow.



Knowledge is shaped like a point down cone. When you know very little and are at the bottom, there is not much more you can see at the next level up.

When you are higher up the cone and you look up, the next step is huge.

I see this interviewing people at work. The better people are with any given software package, the more likely they are to rate themselves closer to average or just slightly above average.

Not always, those that know very little are the "experts"

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