OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 27th, 2017 at 1:38:37 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

interestingly, (to me anyway), at one time I thought Risk of Ruin was the percentage chance that you would go bankrupt before doubling your bankroll. I later found out that is incorrect. Risk of Ruin means the % chance that you will EVER go bankrupt.

Actually, I suspect that with Kelly betting, it's the risk that you will ever fall below half your starting bankroll, but I'd love Romes's input on that.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 27th, 2017 at 1:54:29 PM permalink
this is what Don Schlesinger author of Blackjack Attack and blackjack Hall of Fame member posted about Risk of Ruin on another forum:

"There are six different ROR formulas in BJA3. Some of them have goals, some don't. Some have time constraints, some don't. ROR comes in more than one flavor."


BJA3 refers to the 3rd edition of Blackjack Attack.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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October 27th, 2017 at 2:21:46 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

Bank roll issues you will run out of funds before you see your long term Edge
your blackjacks splits and dd will not be successful im the short term
the high cards favor you as much as the dealer (your opponent)
waiting for a positive return on a high count is almost the same as a royal flush in 9/6 JoB
And finally collecting all the information from various websites on counting forums dating back now and 10 years ago it seems there is no hope for the average joe like me or you to double there Roll as they call it in todays tables minium and getting backed off is most likely to happen

but for all you Kool jasons out there and Zen kings carry on!

Everything you've said is wrong, and more importantly MATHEMATICALLY WRONG. Stop trolling these forums.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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October 27th, 2017 at 2:27:33 PM permalink
I'm shocked he hasn't accused the shufflers of being rigged.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachmonkey
beachmonkey
Joined: May 13, 2015
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October 27th, 2017 at 6:41:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'm shocked he hasn't accused the shufflers of being rigged.


Here bj is 8decks but after each hand the cards are re shuffled as opposed to 5 years ago when the shuffle was done at the end of the shoe. Is it the same state side Las Vegas? Or do you still get the end of shoe shuffle?
I ve found the continuous shuffle negates the count, oh and by the way there are NO video POKER machines at Sydney casino, not one just for some posters that have posted on video challenges
Kind regards
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
ZenKinGRomes
October 27th, 2017 at 7:14:26 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Everything you've said is wrong, and more importantly MATHEMATICALLY WRONG. Stop trolling these forums.



Two things:

1. +1 for Romes.... Clearly we have a troll.
2. Did anyone check for pre-shuffled chinese prison cards? (Best excuse EVER... TY ZK!)

Seriously thought, I'm a hack part time red chip player that knows 2 indecencies, 16 v 10 and insurance. I spread 1/2 the amounts the boards say and wong out at -1 TC...

That plan puts me about even +comps and it kills time. Could it be luck, I don't know...

As best I can tell, math works but counting is hard.
sidthesquid
sidthesquid
Joined: Aug 6, 2016
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October 28th, 2017 at 8:15:06 AM permalink
i guess the thread should have said "why counting is not worth it" ask zen king and stab world if they have gambling addictions

same math you use on casino the casino use on you and thats why they lost bigger banks bigger advantage they lacked both
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
RomesfearlessdragonOnceDear
October 28th, 2017 at 8:18:39 AM permalink
First off sidthesquid, i dont know why you said i failed or went bankrupt, maybe you do that to try and add whatever validity to your nonsense that you're spewing. I'm not even in the negative in Vegas, im actually in the black. I stopped playing recently not because I 'lost it all' like you keep saying, but to not risk any more backoffs at other properties due to a possible flyer being generated and then having my face 'remembered' by all these properties. I also stopped posting in the Dday thread because I was backed off and didn't feel like updating that thread anymore and probably won't anymore. The thread ended with me ending in the positive after a roller coaster and should serve a good story for whoever wants to take up counting to know how tough it really is. Also, this is just Vegas, I've played over 800 hours in PA and made over +40k, so even if I was to lose money here in Vegas, im still not a 'failure' as you keep claiming I was after trying to count.

Secondly, you're the prototypical average card counter that casinos love and why books and movies on card counting was the best thing to ever happen to casinos. Casinos offer blackjack because they know how tough it is and how improperly capitalized most people are when they try to come count and beat them. Thus their profits are actually even more due to the surplus number of people trying to come in and beat them. These newly made counters after skimming through a card counting book or googling +1 and -1, end up not understanding the true math behind it all. The unfortunate result of this, is that these average counters come in and think it's a money making machine and quickly lose their $200-$500 in their wallets and go on these forums and cry like a little girl. Casinos also continue to offer blackjack as well because for every person that can beat them, they have the luxury of just kicking them out and trespassing them. For every person that can beat them, there are also hundreds maybe even thousands who cannot.

Not to mention, do you realize an uninformed average card counter like yourself is actually more beneficial to the casino than your average basic strategy player? Why is that? Instead of just flat betting like the average basic player, the average counter who reads a book on counting on the plane ride here will now induce more variance by spreading his bets and most likely lose, which will cause the casino to have a better hold for that day and thus more profits. Also the average counter, even if he/she could beat them, would probably be making around $4 an hour and keeping tables open for more ploppies to join and thus even more profits for the casino. The point is, there are simply too many indirect positive factors for casinos to simply not offer blackjack.

I suggest you stop spamming my name here saying I failed because I haven't. Maybe if you took all the time you waste on crying and actually trying to understand the math behind the game, you would actually succeed. Yes I might sound like a hypocrite because I also complained a lot, but my complaining was completely different to what you're doing. I was actually a winning player, but that the lack of transparency between casinos and players was not there and it bothered me to the point I thought I was getting cheated. I suggest the first thing you start to understand, if you're actually even a real player and not just a troll; is to learn what exactly N-zero(N0) is. That metric alone will answer all of the complaining you constantly do about this game. I bet you haven't even played 100 hours or 6-7k worth of hands at the tables.
Last edited by: ZenKinG on Oct 28, 2017
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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October 28th, 2017 at 8:21:41 AM permalink
Oh, dang, this is getting good....
sidthesquid
sidthesquid
Joined: Aug 6, 2016
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October 28th, 2017 at 4:02:26 PM permalink
llllll

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