LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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April 27th, 2017 at 8:30:43 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

(6) conditions - friendly dealer's names, unfriendly staff, etc....

Thanks, mamat! It's satisfying to know that I, too, track conditions (these are in a hidden cell). FWIW, conditions are a critical element for me because of my respiratory issues - MSS is a gem because of what seems to be higher ceilings and maybe better HVAC than the Cal (or fewer people/less smokers). . . the MSS layout is appealing because the restrooms don't require my calling Uber or Lyft to get there . . . so far, I've only encountered friendlies in the PB, dealers, cocktail waitresses, and even slot attendants. I remembered to jot down some names as well! And BTW, thank you again for your many and varied posts - I enjoy them all the time, even when the subject is something I know little about - you have a way of engaging into the conversation very intimately and knowledgeably without sounding like some of the know-it-alls on the WoV forum. Kudos!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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April 28th, 2017 at 7:08:13 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

And now you tell me I am supposed to be keeping a log!

You are too funny. On my very first seating at a blackjack table last Oct 2016, I somehow ended up with 5 cards in my hand. For the life of me I froze and could not add them up. The dealer saw me sweating bullets (but didn't see me almost wet my pants), and said "Let me help you, hon, you look like you're struggling . . . "

Good thing it was a hand that added up to 21 and not a bust, so the embarrassment subsided a bit . . .
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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April 28th, 2017 at 7:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: RS

. . . but track your EV as well as SD. . .

I understand the EV of $2.50/hr is embarrassingly low, and that my buy-in of $100 is underfunded for a spread of 1-5 ($5 to $25). However, I knowingly proceeded with these conditions so that I could have my first opportunity at card-counting. The first buy-in was a disaster (nervous, plus extremely annoying seat mate to my right); the second buy-in was a very pleasant and successful head-to-head experience of 2 shuffles, followed by a modest winning 3rd shuffle with 2 other players. I was able to maintain card-count all 3 shuffles.

I am now in the process of developing my strategy for a 3rd trip to be better balanced for bankroll amount, spread, and betting strategy.

Of course, I'll still welcome any constructive criticism from the more experienced players. I still plan to return to the MSS tables, and then I can play DB or JoB for quads & scratchers in between playing blackjack. On this 3rd trip, I hope to at least try one shoe game or 6-deck blackjack. I called the MSS, talked to a Pit Boss, and was assured that the rules for 6-deck are
3:2 payout | min $5/max $500 | dealer hits on S17 | no SURR, no DAS, no RSA, and split non-Ace pairs a maximum of 4 times

Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 2nd, 2017 at 6:59:48 AM permalink
EV definitely needs to be on there =P. Also, when you were still learning BS, you still have an EV you can figure out... Estimate your number of hands, average bet, and the house edge of the game (which you know) and you'll have a negative EV for those sessions playing basic strategy.

I believe we use: Date, Location, Comps/Coupons, Hours Played, Hands Played, EV, AV (actual value), Yearly Total.

Don't think I missed one or two, but might have. Tips are something that could be an interesting stat to keep track of that we probably should be doing but haven't been. I was astounded when I realized at the end of the year how much we got in "comps" per year... =). There is real value there, especially since some places we had so much we just bought really expensive things from the gift shop and sold them online.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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May 2nd, 2017 at 9:43:37 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Also, when you were still learning BS, you still have an EV you can figure out.

Ahhh, you've read my mind again. I believe you might have already explained this particular EV calculation, but I can't find my notes (pages and pages and pages - I'm a SPONGE!).

Good that you posted your thoughts, as I know have an even more interesting response back that I am still drafting . . . HINT: it will have NUMBERS!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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May 2nd, 2017 at 11:42:23 AM permalink
Hint: EV is EV, whether positive or negative, it's what's simply expected. When you are counting you have an "average advantage" which is a positive number (1-2% generally). When you're not counting, this is simply the negative house edge. Otherwise, the calculation is exactly the same. EV = (NumHands*AvgBet)*(Advantage), where advantage can be positive or negative pending the play (counting vs basic strategy).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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May 2nd, 2017 at 7:11:58 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

I understand the EV of $2.50/hr is embarrassingly low, and that my buy-in of $100 is underfunded for a spread of 1-5 ($5 to $25).

Don't be embarrassed about playing small.

The art of "Bootstrapping", whether in business or gambling...is the art of turning $1 into $1 million in steps.
Learning how to turn $100 -> $200 -> $400 -> $1,000 is a valuable skill.

Usually $5 at a 1-5 spread is within +/- $75 for an hour of play, so the $100 buy-in works.
At nervous places like El Cortez, I might even buy-in $20 at a time... Makes the top bet look like an "all-in".

It's fun to play "all-in" BJ, and just bring out more money from your wallet when you lose.

Best I could do on $20 was run up to $1,100 & cash out at $950. (47.5x).

----
Another tactic is to buy in $1,000, but only play $100. That way if you win $50, it doesn't look like you're winning a lot relative to your stack.

----
Buy in for weird amounts - $65, $240, etc...

----
Lots and lots of tactics to try. Good luck.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
  • Threads: 38
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May 2nd, 2017 at 7:59:18 PM permalink
Quote: mamat

Lots and lots of tactics to try. Good luck.

Hey there, mamat! Thanks for always giving me positive encouragement saddled with a variety of tips to try out. Hope to reciprocate one day, in one way or another. I'm busy working out my next strategy for an improved BR/ramp on my 3rd trip (probably not till end of 2017 or early 2018). Cheers!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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May 5th, 2017 at 4:52:01 PM permalink
Quote: LostWages

No, I don't have CVCX; I understand the basic definition of SD (normal distribution, bell curve), but I wouldn't know how to actually calculate it. A handful of WoV folks have also suggested I invest in "the software". That would be stellar if you could find an old log and send it to me. I'm only in my 5th yr of retirement, and life can be surprisingly busy with things you don't realize. All of a sudden, there's time to do those repairs & maintenence you couldn't do when you were both working, etc. But I'm also showered with multiple "break times", which I use to enjoy the WoV forum, and do things like make a blackjack log.


But yes! I only recently learned how to calculate my EV playing Blackjack, and look at me! I've overlooked logging it in. In fact the EV for my last bout of BJ described was only $2.50/hr, which I had posted elsewhere that I knew it was underfunded. I played anyway, as this was my first time to actually card-count - it was worth it, and I actually won a little, even though the EV was low. Lady Variance stayed with me long enough to give me my first taste of card-counting (even if the first 2 shuffles were head-to-head, and the last shuffle we were 3 players).


PM me an email I can send the spreadsheet to. It's sorta complicated so I'll attach a 'readme' to follow in how it works, what to change, what not to touch, etc. Just remember anything in the sim_data tab, it's in UNITS, not DOLLARS.

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