New AP blog
I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.Quote: InTimeForSpace1Look, casinos look at what you win or lose, nothing else.
other AP's know what you know, how
that helps you in some way. Unless you
want them as partners, loose lips sink
ships. There's a lot of ego involved in
AP, keeping your mouth shut is a big
advantage. Lord knows I had as big
a mouth as anybody, not anymore.
I'm quieter than a church mouse on
the subject the last few years.
Sometimes the casino's tolerance is big enough that you CAN share with others. In turn, they share with you. in the end, everyone involved makes more money because of this. Obviously, if you share too manny plays with too many people it's game over. There's always the chance you share with someone, who shares it with the wrong person, who will do something really dumb. There's a balancing act involved. Most seasoned and even many new AP's know what they can and should share and what they need to keep to themselves.
Quote: AxelWolfus mear mortal AP's can't beat -EV games using a betting system("like you can on roulette")
Never ever said I have a betting system
that beats anything. Betting systems don't
work. Period.
Quote:There's always the chance you share with someone, who shares it with the wrong person, who will do something really dumb.
I'm talking more about the sharing with the
general public and casinos, like blogs do.
Casinos are more interested in AP blogs
than players will ever be. I don't see the
point of keeping them constantly updated,
where's the advantage play in that.
Love the "mere mortals" phrase Axel.Quote: AxelWolfBut since us mear mortal AP's can't beat -EV games using a betting system
Wonder what would happen if WoV people encouraged the proliferation & discussion of -EV tactics... :-)
More camouflage for +EV conversation.
Personally I was quite surprised in 2014-2016 to find anyone discussing non-defunct machine plays (especially on non-back channels).
In 2010, I don't recall any on-line discussion...perhaps I simply didn't look hard enough.
Internet has changed quit a lot since 1969. Surprising how much more information appears every 5 years.
Way TOO much info has been spread by incompetents looking for partners.Quote: EvenBobI've never been sure why it helps to have other AP's know what you know, how that helps you in some way. Unless you want them as partners, loose lips sink ships.
...it's how I originally learned a lot of "plays" in Las Vegas (from people too broke to do the plays themselves).
...and still happens a lot from certain blabbermouths who often run out of cash, and drag newbies with cash to "plays".
Quote: Zcore13I'll give it 6 months before he's tired of blogging.
ZCore13
But he has another person also blogging there. A year, then?
Quote: mamat
Another person retired in the 1970s (via poker), and does UX for fun (almost no other games). Very low 5-figures each year.
He likes to have 200-300 day winning streaks, so doesn't like more volatile games.
His money is not invested in the stock market, but in fixed income, because he doesn't want the risk.
No poker. No blackjack.
----
P.S. Benefits are room, board, shows, weird gifts like kitchen stuff. No medical, unemployment, or disability.
I assume this means he uses a players card while vulturing? Seems like a good way to 1) let the casino know you are grinding out small profits and 2) reduce offers by lowering coin in.
Who wants points or mercy? It just seems that the people who don't gamble at casinos know so much more about it. Nobody has to figure anyone out to arrive at this.Quote: AxelWolfI award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Sorry, Axel, a bunch of lonely (older male) people are still lonely. They live their lonely lives out on internet forums.
I know someone on this very forum (not me)that will probably wear a dress and high hills for you, or whomever you are talking about. You/they just have to think positive.Quote: InTimeForSpace1Who wants points or mercy? It just seems that the people who don't gamble at casinos know so much more about it. Nobody has to figure anyone out to arrive at this.
Sorry, Axel, a bunch of lonely (older male) people are still lonely. They live their lonely lives out on internet forums.
I don't know what you mean when you say "It just seems that the people who don't gamble at casinos know so much more about it." Was that sarcasm directed at Boob? I can't tell if what you said was actually all just sarcasm?
Either way, the casinos will, in fact, target AP's who are losing at times. Ya, its much more likely they will go after you when you start winning.
Sometimes people have the appearance of winning (lots of big jackpots or lots of chips) but they don't take the time to investigate and see how much the guy is actually in for.
If a casino doesn't know "how much the guy is in for," then they don't know him at all. You guys ridicule the baccarat players who write stuff down. Where do the casinos write down their so-called long psychological "evaluations", performed by whomever, on every generic AxelWolf through the door? Furthermore, I doubt that any gambling make-up or profile would be normal in any mainstream sense of the word. Yeah, sure, I'm writing in some foreign language, and using a translator. At least I'm not a robot. WTF are you guys eating and drinking? QFit?Quote: AxelWolfSometimes people have the appearance of winning (lots of big jackpots or lots of chips) but they don't take the time to investigate and see how much the guy is actually in for.
Quote: InTimeForSpace1Who wants points or mercy? It just seems that the people who don't gamble at casinos know so much more about it. Nobody has to figure anyone out to arrive at this.
Sorry, Axel, a bunch of lonely (older male) people are still lonely. They live their lonely lives out on internet forums.
I don't know about other games. But I know for 100% fact that people who play Blackjack have managed to get away with play by changing their appearance and behavior. (and no I am not talking about elaborate disguises to fool facial recognition or something as extensive as that) As long as casinos are run and managed by humans and not robots its going to be a factor.
I have never ridiculed a Baccarat player for writing stuff down, only for thinking it actually helps him overcome the HA.Quote: InTimeForSpace1If a casino doesn't know "how much the guy is in for," then they don't know him at all. You guys ridicule the baccarat players who write stuff down. Where do the casinos write down their so-called long psychological "evaluations", performed by whomever, on every generic AxelWolf through the door? Furthermore, I doubt that any gambling make-up or profile would be normal in any mainstream sense of the word. Yeah, sure, I'm writing in some foreign language, and using a translator. At least I'm not a robot. WTF are you guys eating and drinking? QFit?
I didn't say they can't find out or never look into how much a player is up or down. In fact, they oftentimes look into that and then use that information to 86 players, or even roll out the red carpet. I was just saying, being up or down is not the only factor. Simply playing something that AP's might play can get you tossed, win lose or draw.
They don't need to know how much a card counter is in for to know they don't want his action.
It's the same concept on all other games, if the casino knows a guy is playing during a +EV situation they might react based solely on the fact they appear to be hitting too many jackpots.
Females have more hair, etc, to work with in this department. But it doesn't change the argument that casinos look at the money first , middle and last. It probably makes great linear programming sense to just throw out the few who win a lot or consistently over a short period of time. If you do a volume business, who cares if you are completely wrong? But, if they are beating you, then you have saved yourself some "change" by the end of the month. But the players are convinced, in any event, that they are all "irrational, whining casino employees" because of them.Quote: DiscreteMaths2But I know for 100% fact that people who play Blackjack have managed to get away with play by changing their appearance and behavior.
1) Drop - cash used (both for tables and slots)
2) Theo - ADT (Average Daily Theo)
3) Win - ADW (Average Daily Win), PADW (Peak Average Daily Win) - actual win/loss
4) Win/Loss
5) Coin-in, Points
6) Player reinvestment - total amount of FP, rooms, food, gifts, benefits
7) Games played - tables, slots
8) Address - very local, local, in-state, out-of-state
9) Google, Social Media, possibly detective work
10) etc....
Formulas vary a LOT between casinos. Some casinos are simple & easy-to-understand. Others are pretty complicated.
Marketing and tables/slots may have different formulas.
Some APs spend time trying to reverse-engineer this process, to get "over-comped", to stay "under the radar", etc...
The formulas in some cases have WEIRD effects compared to old-school seat-of-the-pants judgement.
------
You might expect a casino to prefer players with an overall loss,
but (in some situations) many casinos prefer players who've walked away with some of their money.
e.g. I took a 4-6 month break from casinos. After a 3 month decline in casino offers, some casinos where I won money raised their offers to get me back. You would think that the casinos where I lost the most would try the hardest to keep my business. Nope.
There are many cases (as an entrepreneur & business owner) where I'm just scratching my head, going "what are they thinking?"
Of course, not every business owner has the luxury of being in a business with 40-45% gross profit margins! It allows you lots of leeway to make mistakes.
Quote: InTimeForSpace1Look, casinos look at what you win or lose, nothing else.
In Las Vegas it's not that common for them to investigate these too heavily, especially at table games. There are something like 100 casinos, most of which range in value from $100 million to over $1 billion. If a player is beating them for an average of $100 every other week, they don't care enough to look into it. And even if they did, most of the time the player who has an advantage still loses more then half the time, making it hard to add up all their wins and losses.
Quote: TomGIn Las Vegas it's not that common for them to investigate these too heavily, especially at table games. If a player is beating them for an average of $100 every other week, they don't care enough to look into it.
Agreed. I once was acquainted with someone in NYC who worked TV production for live sports broadcasts. (Since DI doesn't exist, I'll just say...) He was VERY lucky at craps, and several times a month he would go to AC for the day. He would play 8-10 casinos, attempting to win $500 each (often successful), and then leave. He commented that the casinos stopped giving him comps. "A player won $500 today? So what?" As far as the casinos were concerned, it was no big deal.
It's amazing because every DI, system player, positive energy player, voodoo guy, fuzzy math guys, all the guys on the roulette and baccarat forums are making their $100 to $1k per day, and that's not including the guys claiming much higher profits. The casinos don't seem to be interested them guys at all. Yet, they will sweat and toss out guys with a small mathematical advantage making a few bucks an hour on something as silly as playing VP on a crappy point multiplier day.Quote: LuckyPhowAgreed. I once was acquainted with someone in NYC who worked TV production for live sports broadcasts. (Since DI doesn't exist, I'll just say...) He was VERY lucky at craps, and several times a month he would go to AC for the day. He would play 8-10 casinos, attempting to win $500 each (often successful), and then leave. He commented that the casinos stopped giving him comps. "A player won $500 today? So what?" As far as the casinos were concerned, it was no big deal.
I think, and have been told by persons in the industry, that most casinos know within a hundred dollars what every one at the tables comes (buys in) and goes with. The ones with a history have a history; the very, very few who start winning, and keep winning, just show them the door. Some places do this, too, after, say, a few weeks. It seems to me that most just let them play because even the so-called gambling experts end up losing at least their time, in that dreaded long run, where it's more about seeing what wasn't accounted for; and end up sucking in all their "friends" and others along for the "ride". While the people who write the books and run the forums, etc, try to convince themselves in front of their "friends" that someone else is getting rich by it, as well. Always "something big going on".Quote: TomGIn Las Vegas it's not that common for them to investigate these too heavily, especially at table games. There are something like 100 casinos, most of which range in value from $100 million to over $1 billion. If a player is beating them for an average of $100 every other week, they don't care enough to look into it. And even if they did, most of the time the player who has an advantage still loses more then half the time, making it hard to add up all their wins and losses.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's amazing because every DI, system player, positive energy player, voodoo guy, fuzzy math guys, all the guys on the roulette and baccarat forums are making their $100 to $1k per day, and that's not including the guys claiming much higher profits.
Ain't it the truth, Axel. Everyone knows none of that "stuff" works. Some people have all the luck. My friend used to call casinos his own personal ATMs.
Quote: AxelWolfThe casinos don't seem to be interested them guys at all. Yet, they will sweat and toss out guys with a small mathematical advantage making a few bucks an hour on something as silly as playing VP on a crappy point multiplier day.
Well, of course! Casinos consider advantage plays something akin to stealing and believe it's their duty to let APs know, "We don't appreciate players like that in this casino." APs don't show up every month or so. They show up every day, especially for things like "silly" point multipliers. I don't know whether APs hurt the casinos or not, but it sometimes seems casinos believe APs squeeze the juice right out of their bottom line. Heck, I don't even know how to spell "AP," so you're probably right on that one, too.
Ha... Sounds like time for a comedy post. :-)Quote: AxelWolfevery DI, system player, positive energy player, voodoo guy, fuzzy math guys, all the guys on the roulette and baccarat forums
How about some irony?Quote: mamatHa... Sounds like time for a comedy post. :-)
Quote: InTimeForSpace1I think, and have been told by persons in the industry, that most casinos know within a hundred dollars what every one at the tables comes (buys in) and goes with.
If the margin of error is close $100, that is a pretty clear indication the casino doesn't know a players total results. And how is the casino able to keep track of someone's results who plays for between 15 and 90 minutes every couple of weeks?
get a rental car for a 3 day weekend for under
$50 a lot of the time. That's pretty cheap.
https://www.apstreet.com/rental-cars/
a good + EV way to get comped is to
run $10K thru the video poker machines
and lose about $75. This should get you
a couple hundred in rooms and meals.
But how long does that take, I've never
played video poker. Time is money too,
especially if you don't live in Vegas.
Quote: EvenBobIn the last post on the AP blog, he says
a good + EV way to get comped is to
run $10K thru the video poker machines
and lose about $75. This should get you
a couple hundred in rooms and meals.
But how long does that take, I've never
played video poker. Time is money too,
especially if you don't live in Vegas.
90 minutes on a single-line $1 vp machine, 6 hrs on .25, both max bet @5 coins. Not that long, really.
Quote: beachbumbabs90 minutes on a single-line $1 vp machine, 6 hrs on .25, both max bet @5 coins. Not that long, really.
That is super super fast. Very few players can maintain that pace, if the machine will even has turbo. 2.5 hours $1, or 10 hours 0.25 probably closer if playing at a "decent" speed.
Let's just say this is good advice for many people and leave it at that.Quote: IbeatyouracesThis ploy is pretty well known.
I don't think we should scoff at or challenge AP bloggers.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't think we should scoff at or challenge AP bloggers.
especially if that's all they've got
Quote: Zcore13I'll give it 6 months before he's tired of blogging.
ZCore13
5 total blog posts in July and NONE in August. I win! Lol
ZCore13
Quote: Zcore135 total blog posts in July and NONE in August. I win! Lol
ZCore13
And nothing from Grosjean on the LVA GWAE site since May 13th. Better check the backrooms!
