Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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May 16th, 2017 at 11:14:15 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I am open to it. In what format is the data? Can you copy and paste about ten hands here so we know what we're dealing with.



It came as a txt file, but I've imported it all into excel. I tried pasting it here, but the formatting was ugly and wouldn't be helpful. If you send me a PM of your email address, I can share the file w/ you.

John
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 16th, 2017 at 1:06:22 PM permalink
Are we still keeping the name of this casino secret?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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May 16th, 2017 at 1:30:34 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Are we still keeping the name of this casino secret?



Yes. I think until/unless someone besides myself can corroborate that the game is gaffed, there's no sense naming anyone or getting egg on my face.

Also, if the game IS gaffed, step #1 for me would be to privately negotiate a refund/settlement.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 16th, 2017 at 5:38:07 PM permalink
Quote: Johnboy85



Also, if the game IS gaffed, step #1 for me would be to privately negotiate a refund/settlement.

Good thinking, some good old blackmail might do the trick.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
Joined: Jan 18, 2017
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May 16th, 2017 at 5:40:11 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Good thinking, some good old blackmail might do the trick.



Not sure if sarcasm? What would you do?
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 19th, 2017 at 6:42:11 AM permalink
Here is some additional information on the rules:

1. Is double after a split allowed? - Yes.
2. Can the player re-split? If so, to how many hands? - Yes to five hands
3. Same question as above but on re-splitting aces. - No resplit on Aces.
4. What happens if the player doubles or splits and the dealer gets a blackjack? In other words, does the player lose his original bet only or everything? - Early Surrender and Dealer Peeks, so N/A to this game.

Six decks and dealer hits a soft 17 were already stated.

Using my house edge calculator, before considering the early surrender rule, I get a house edge of 0.61873%.

From my list of rule variations, the value of early surrender against an ace is 0.39% and against a 10 is 0.24%. So, the overall house edge is 0.62% - 0.39% - 0.24% = -0.01%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Dobrij
Dobrij
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May 19th, 2017 at 7:40:45 AM permalink
Hello!

I estimated that the possible range might be:



And if we had a history of cards that were released, then it's possible to establish the honesty of random events with a high probability ...
Johnboy85
Johnboy85
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May 19th, 2017 at 7:50:09 AM permalink
Quote: Dobrij

Hello!

I estimated that the possible range might be:



And if we had a history of cards that were released, then it's possible to establish the honesty of random events with a high probability ...



Hi, thanks for doing this!

Questions:
Which rules and variables did you use to sim this?
The lines represent 1,2, and 3 SD positive and negative, and blue is EV?
Y axis is dollars, and X axis is # of hands?

Finally, Wizard has the hand history in his possession and I assume will be doing a basic analysis. I've asked him to keep the results of that analysis private for now, but I will happy to update this thread once we know more.
Dobrij
Dobrij
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May 19th, 2017 at 8:10:14 AM permalink
My calculations are average and may not be accurate ...

I think if you analyze the concentration of hands and dealer cards, you can find the answer, or maybe not:)
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 19th, 2017 at 11:27:53 AM permalink
Here are some initial rough results. First, let me explain the way the log files are organized. The amount bet column is the amount after any double, if any. Also, if the player split, there is a separate line entry for each hand. So, the ratio of the win to the initial bet can only be:

0, for a loss
0.5, for a surrender
1, for a win (including after doubling)
1.5, for a blackjack

For this reason, the usual standard deviation for blackjack of around 1.14 cannot be used. The standard deviation based on the way the log file is formatted would be much less. For now, I'm going to make an educated guess at a variance of 0.8, which equates to a standard deviation of 0.8944. The reason it is so low is there are no 2x wins and lots of surrendering, due to the early surrender rule.

Total bet $8,629,233.50
Total win $(44,847.30)
Expected win $862.92
Win compared to expectations $(45,710.22)
Variance $538,878,465.80
Standard deviation $23,213.76
Number std. dev (1.97)
Probability 0.0244707637
Inverse 40.87


So, we see the player's loss due to bad luck is $45,710 compared to his small expected win, based on a player edge of 0.01%. A standard deviation on all this play (based on my rough estimate) is $23,214. So, the player is down 1.97 standard deviations. The probability of luck that bad or worse in a fair game is 2.45%, or 1 in 41.

Unless there is something I have wrong about the rules or am reading the file wrong, this looks like just moderate bad luck to me.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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