Dealer bust-out rate

I know that the dealer busts out at a rate of roughly 28%. In a given shoe, is this rate dependent upon future and previous busts? Or this rate independent, like black & white spots on roulette? I've read about not-betting, not-hitting, and applying a Martingdale version to successive dealer non-busts, but what about just increasing one's bet while using basic strategy? If I'm too lazy to count cards, but notice that the dealer hasn't busted in awhile, should I increase my bet for a few hands? Or if the dealer busts several times in a row, should I decrease my bet? Or am I applying the fallacious roulette strategy of seeing a bunch of reds in row and so betting on black?

Thanks!

Quote: AlexM

I know that the dealer busts out at a rate of roughly 28%. In a given shoe, is this rate dependent upon future and previous busts? Or this rate independent, like black & white spots on roulette? I've read about not-betting, not-hitting, and applying a Martingdale version to successive dealer non-busts, but what about just increasing one's bet while using basic strategy? If I'm too lazy to count cards, but notice that the dealer hasn't busted in awhile, should I increase my bet for a few hands? Or if the dealer busts several times in a row, should I decrease my bet? Or am I applying the fallacious roulette strategy of seeing a bunch of reds in row and so betting on black?

Thanks!

Hi Alex,
Welcome to the forum.

The probability of dealer busting late in a shoe is very, VERY nearly totally independent of how many times (s)he busted earlier in the shoe. I'm too lazy to do any maths or simulations around that assertion, but I'm pretty darned sure that if there was an edge to be derived from analysing and Martingaling dealer busts or non-busts, then that would already have been written about much more than the topic of card counting.

Now, if you can find a dealer with a large bust, and short arms, you might have a better chance of getting an edge by glimpsing the hole card. I'd expect that would be more fruitful and fun to analyse.

$:o)