Blony1789
Blony1789
Joined: Nov 23, 2016
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November 23rd, 2016 at 7:26:35 AM permalink
A few days ago I was playing at a casino on the east coast (I won't mention any names), where they offered free insurance. The game is an 8 deck revolving shoe, you can only split twice, bj pays 3/2 & dealer hits on soft 17. How much does insurance mathematically affect the game?
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Nov 25, 2016
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
November 23rd, 2016 at 7:42:26 AM permalink
I think you should stop calling it a loophole. It clearly isn't. The game isn't designed to operate that way.

If this game exists, I'm sure there are people who would dearly love you to delete your post.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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November 23rd, 2016 at 12:23:19 PM permalink
That is worth an extra unit every 42 hands or so, or an increase in expected value of about 2.37%, depending on the number of decks.

I expect you're getting a flood of PM's by now, offering to buy the name of the casino or machine maker and model. I would recommend forum members exercise proper skepticism, especially given that this is a new member.

Let me remind the forum that flagging for reasons that you don't want a post read is not an acceptable reason, except for the original poster. We are able to tell who flags what post. It is a suspension-worthy offense.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Blony1789
Blony1789
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November 23rd, 2016 at 1:32:40 PM permalink
Thanks Wizard for answering my question. Obviously I knew that the "loophole" benifits the player, but no one around these parts were exactly sure just how the math worked out, and more importantly if it helps enough to create positive EV to make it worth it to play in the long-term. The continous shuffle along with the fact that it's electronic blackjack render counting obsolete, so the real question is even if someone were to use perfect basic strategy, could one gain an edge?

To reply to Sabre, I understand your point, but that's why I left out the name and location of the casino. I was asking the question from more of a mathematical perspective. (Although maybe your right I should have been less specific and left out the east coast part) Lol
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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November 23rd, 2016 at 1:51:24 PM permalink
So basically, when you make the insurance bet, lets say it's $5, doing what you described, and when the dealer doesn't have a blackjack, the machine returns the $5 to you instead of keeping it?

What happens when the dealer does have a blackjack? Will that same $5 be returned along with the $10 2:1 pay off and you keeping your original $10 bet?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Blony1789
Blony1789
Joined: Nov 23, 2016
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November 23rd, 2016 at 3:08:33 PM permalink
That's correct. When the dealer doesn't have bj, by releasing the button with the correct timing, the bet won't count. However if they do have bj, continuing to hold the bet down (in this case the $5 insurance bet)would be accepted and you would protect your initial bet.

Very briefly, Once insurance is closed, the dealer will go into an animation before they reveal their card, and the type of animation gives away whether they have blackjack before they flip their card. By holding the yes selection down(akin to holding down your mouse clicker instead of clicking on a link), it doesn't register your selection and it briefly still allows you to choose during the beginning portion of the dealer animation. So by releasing (or holding onto if there's bj) the button with precise timing prior to the flip(tipped off by the dealer animation), you can avoid paying for insurance.
Blony1789
Blony1789
Joined: Nov 23, 2016
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November 23rd, 2016 at 3:47:56 PM permalink
I guess the ultimate question for Wizard (and why I posted this on the forum in the first place) is to discern whether or not it would be worth it (from a mathematical perspective) to spend the time, energy and money on this bj game given the "loophole"? Wizard did mention that it does add about a 2% EV, but is that enough to make it a positive EV game overall?
Wizard
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Wizard 
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November 23rd, 2016 at 4:10:51 PM permalink
What's the most you can bet per hand? Do you know the other blackjack rules, especially what does a winning player blackjack pay?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Blony1789
Blony1789
Joined: Nov 23, 2016
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November 23rd, 2016 at 4:17:38 PM permalink
It's a 10 min (I believe 500 max), 8 deck game continuous shuffle, bj pays 3 to 2, can split only twice (DAS permitted), dealer hits on soft 17
Wizard
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Wizard 
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November 23rd, 2016 at 5:41:43 PM permalink
I'll assume no re-splitting aces or surrender. That gives us a house edge of 0.66%, before factoring in the insurance bug.

The probability of an ace-up dealer blackjack is (1/13)*(128/415) = 2.37%. Every time that happens the player gets an extra unit. So overall house edge of -0.66% + 2.37% = 1.71%.

Let's assume 500 hands per hour at $500 a bet. That makes this play worth $4,275 per hour.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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