Interesting Question on GWAE

Richard and Bob commented on this, they got an email, from a BJ player, playing at a local casino.
The game he plays has an approximate .41 house edge.
He plays $25 a hand, with BS for 7 hours. 60 hands per hour
He gets $100 match per day and $20 food comp
House expected win was $48 (if I recall correctly)
He plays for entertainment and he feels he has a positive EV with everything included

Thoughts?

Quote: Scan

Richard and Bob commented on this, they got an email, from a BJ player, playing at a local casino.
The game he plays has an approximate .41 house edge.
He plays $25 a hand, with BS for 7 hours. 60 hands per hour
He gets $100 match per day and $20 food comp
House expected win was $48 (if I recall correctly)
He plays for entertainment and he feels he has a positive EV with everything included

Thoughts?

Depends on what the "$100 match" is. If it's a $100 matchplay coupon, it's worth a little less than $50, so he's breaking even, assuming he's playing good BS, plus he's getting fed. So yes, he's slightly +EV. (The expected loss would be about $6 an hour, so more like $42 based on seven hours of play.)

EV(blackjack w/ perfect basic strategy) = TotalWagered*HouseEdge = (AvgBet*NumHands)*HouseEdge = (25*420)*(-.0041) = -$43.05 (about $6.15/hour as Joe put it)

The EV of the $100 match play coupon is ~$50, pending game, etc.

EV($20 food comp) = Whatever you feel $20 in "food" at their establishment is worth =P... Let's say "$20."

TotalEV = Sum of the EV's = -43.05 + 50 + 20 = $26.95.

Though to be fair, the BULK of his "EV" is in the free food... So not like he's actually pocketing much cash. More like $7 for 7 hours of work... So he's making $1/hour. Not bad for playing for fun, and if he gets decent comp points and they have a gift shop or something then hey he could walk away with more value.

Next, let's add in the fact that after so many weeks, months, whatever, the casino will see they're not generating a profit from the player that they should and probably cut his free bet coupon back or off completely. That coupon is what washes out his blackjack -EV as of now, so once that goes, unless something else is put in place there goes the "play."

Don't forget, the food is overpriced compared to what you'd pay in a grocery store. I'd say he's still slightly -EV.

Quote: Scan

Richard and Bob commented on this, they got an email, from a BJ player, playing at a local casino.
The game he plays has an approximate .41 house edge.
He plays $25 a hand, with BS for 7 hours. 60 hands per hour
He gets $100 match per day and $20 food comp
House expected win was $48 (if I recall correctly)
He plays for entertainment and he feels he has a positive EV with everything included

Thoughts?

Does he have to play 7 hours every day? Is it a special deal or mailers? Perhaps he's actually over playing significantly and doesn't know it?

Thanks for the comments and working out the math!

Quote: Scan

He plays for entertainment and he feels he has a positive EV with everything included

There is no one who would consider that an entertaining way to spend seven hours. After including opportunity costs it's major -EV. When using a $20 dining companion you need to tip at least $5

Quote: TomG

There is no one who would consider that an entertaining way to spend seven hours. After including opportunity costs it's major -EV. When using a $20 dining companion you need to tip at least $5

So you're saying people that like to gamble would rather do it for less than 7 hours a day? I'm pretty sure I can find people that would disagree with you. This guy never claimed to make a living off this. Just a positive EV. But you're probably right, after opportunity costs it's negative EV. He should just sit at home for 7 hours I guess. Saves gas and helps the environment!

A player can definitely get over-comped, but what it still amounts to is cheap entertainment. You can't prosper enough to consider it true AP. Well, theoretically it would be possible with enough free-play, I'm just saying getting over-comped is real possibility, anything beyond that is too much to expect.

Quote: tringlomane

He should just sit at home for 7 hours I guess. Saves gas and helps the environment!

What he could do is get a blackjack game on his phone, then work security on a night shift and play just as much while earning $25,000 per year playing instead of $0.

Quote: TomG

What he could do is get a blackjack game on his phone, then work security on a night shift and play just as much while earning $25,000 per year playing instead of $0.

lol this made me laugh pretty hard...

I do not see a downside to this.
Lots of people like being out and about in the casino environment.

Perhaps he is a retiree, he like the crowds, the interaction etc..

Quote: TomG

What he could do is get a blackjack game on his phone, then work security on a night shift and play just as much while earning $25,000 per year playing instead of $0.

You better be careful, Axelwolf and RS are going to claim you are disclosing a major AP opportunity here. :)

Perhaps he considers eight hours away from his spouse enough positive value.

Perhaps just 'staying in there" is fine when its a .41 house edge and the cards are coming and so are the drinks.

Quote: Scan

I do not see a downside to this.
Lots of people like being out and about in the casino environment.

Perhaps he is a retiree, he like the crowds, the interaction etc..

Anybody consistently breaking even in a casino is doing better than 99% of the folks out there.

Quote: DRich

You better be careful, Axelwolf and RS are going to claim you are disclosing a major AP opportunity here. :)

There's a possibility. Perhaps he's overplaying the number of hours, under playing his average bet and not generating the largest amount?

I vote for a job at McDonald's.