trip bankroll question

i have a question about +Ev vs -Ev

what is the "Probability" of walking away with extra cash after 10hr or say a thousand hands??

rules :

6decker
67 pent
LS
S17
splt aces/4hands
insure offered
1-10 spread
Bank rolled w/ 3500
min 25$

i read 1-4 spread worst damages can be done with that is 1100$$$ first hour and 2100$$$ on the 2nd hour is that true? and what is best case outcome with the 1-10 or 1-15 anyone know?

thats pretty Sh!tty to be down over 2k in under 2hr imo and then get slapped with a ban by the pit bull boss

ofcourse play through no wongin

thats very LOUSY to lose 20 max bets under 2hr is that a 50% chance of that happening a coin toss? or very common?

i also played 3min of bj with 25$ min bet lost 300$ count stayed neutral , will i continue to lose additional money waiting for that precious count and if so how much?
600? 1200? 2k? how often is it to lose 300$ in 3min of blackjack common or rare??

there was a man named Joel on a different site and he explained to me a land based casino vs a simulation or computer bj game is VERY different he claimed to play for years and said positive progression worked best but still managed to lose claimed WWLLLWLLLLLLLWWLLLL was the norm the typical of shoe games and man i have to agree with him every time i sit down at the tables cbvj shows me with a 42.46win //49.29 loss//8.25 tie // 7160 turns and a heavy profit of 2075

me and Joel must be playing different blackjack games w/ different rules

Quote: sidthesquid

there was a man named Joel on a different site and he explained to me a land based casino vs a simulation or computer bj game is VERY different he claimed to play for years and said positive progression worked best but still managed to lose claimed WWLLLWLLLLLLLWWLLLL was the norm the typical of shoe games and man i have to agree with him every time i sit down at the tables cbvj shows me with a 42.46win //49.29 loss//8.25 tie // 7160 turns and a heavy profit of 2075

me and Joel must be playing different blackjack games w/ different rules

Hi Sid, what's with the multiple self replies? Are you thinking out loud?
I can't be bothered to do your maths for you, but MIN 25 and with a betting ramp, your average wager would be >25 a session bankroll of 3500 will be wiped out frequently enough to be noticeable. To get wiped out on session 1, 2 and maybe 3 might give you a good feel for real life ( and may save you a fortune in the long run :o) ) Too often you will find yourself without the essential funds to do the splits or doubles that you really should do. That would destroy any advantage you ever had and render counting, and playing, pointless.

Next, the guy on the internet, whoever or wherever, is not always correct in his observations and may exaggerate or tell untruths for a whole load of reasons. There are some posters who consistently report their remarkable winning sessions or systems. Some must be playing on a different planet if their results stories are to be believed.
Win-loss patterns may look just like that over a sequence of 19 games, but over a real session of a realistic number of games, you will see some remarkable streaks of wins or losses.
Positive progressions will always work perfectly right up to the point where they don't work! They are just a fun way to win or lose money and to change the feel of your bankroll variation.
Differences between Computer BJ and real BJ.... Well in my limited experience the Computer games had typically more generous rules and slightly lower edge than the real live games I could get to. If a game has less splitting or doubling allowed, it may have fewer opportunities to have LOTS of money in play, and thus less variance. But that's about it. If they feel different from a counting point of view, consider how much the speed and noise impact on your perception and concentration. If you run a sim and let it do all the counting (perfectly) then you may find yourself discarding results that don't fit your expectation. Incidentally 7160 games is not many.
About those horror losing streaks that you mention. Nothing unusual there!!! If your average wager is say, $25 and your effective player edge is maybe 0.5% then you would, of course be playing with a (lifetime) bankroll of the order of 2 x $25 / 0.005 = 10,000 ( half kelly ) and you can expect to win or lose 2,000, 4,000, 6,000 without batting an eyelid.
Being a superb card counter in decent games, with a nominally good edge is not the route to a smooth transition from poverty to wealth. It's more the roller-coaster route from moderately wealthy to maybe a bit more moderately wealthy.

you mean to tell me i can blow through 3500 like nothin on a 25$ min table w/ rules above explained? holy hell i can lose 9k in 9hours? i wonder how many people in the past went down that card sequence and how often it happens, the more i read the more i feel/think bj is a lousy investment even tho kewljason would say im wrong lol but billybjkid and mr Jimmtech would agree with me i cant say for certain if they got 33/66/99 max bets chewed up or not but being down 35max bets when each equals 250 , gambling may not be for me , simulations have shown me after 17 days of 10hr each session you kiss goodbye to break even bets and start rackin in the chips and never dip below any of your original money how sweet that is must be fiction to some people , hell id glady risk 20 max bets things will get hairy after 35 max bets and i'll start question everything after losing 66 max bets i wont even have the bank to keep going after that let alone worry about pit boss barring me

it all makes me wonder about what can happen...

Quote: sidthesquid

you mean to tell me i can blow through 3500 like nothin on a 25$ min table w/ rules above explained?

Hell yeah. You watch as the count heads north ( because you are losing a few hands at nearly max ramp) and you find your max bet of 10x25=250 out. Pair of 3s against a 6. You spilt. whack down another $250. Get a 7 and an 8 so you double them both. Whack down another $500. Dealer gets to 21 and scoops up your grand. Don't think it can happen? Well it can so easily. Your chips won't ebb and flow gently twixt you and the dealer: It will flood back and forth on just a few mega stupid hands. Sometimes to the good, sometimes to the bad.

Have you actually watched your sims play out, or just looked at the final bankroll increased amount? If you haven't watched and haven't seen the gut wrenching movements of chips, then you are probably not ready to take $3500 to a real table and play.

Quote:

... the more i read the more i feel/think bj is a lousy investment.

As an investment in time and energy it is not an easy road to riches.

Quote:

...even tho kewljason would say im wrong lol but billybjkid and mr Jimmtech would agree with me...

I suggest you don't bother putting words in the mouths of posters from some other forum, nor take everything they say as pure gold. If I recall correctly, KewlJ always used to make it quite clear that counting BJ for a living was a rough ride where you needed a big bankroll and balls of steel. Anyhow. if you disagree with what those guys say on another forum, take them to task at that other forum.

Quote:

gambling may not be for me ,

I think maybe not. And I mean no offense with that comment.

i actually do watch and observe the bank roll of 9500$ cash on masque blackjack, i cant alter the pent on it but the 8 decker rules are almost the same as real life casino, LS/s17 das/late sur, and the story always begins and ends the same (most of the time, ) it loses the magic realm of 28-35 max bets and pops back up to life and easy riding after that storm, and it shows the same results of my casino verite blackjack except im slower at it with manually doing the sim with hand since i dont have cvcx, never piercing the 35 magic max bet number except rarely it has happened

i have run sims on 7 respectable blackjack software's not crappy softwares good ones, where you can alter the pent, decks, LS/S17 or H17 das and every single one of them i can beat with 20k turns,

and every one of them rare occasion where i needed more than 35 max bets off the bat starting point
the losing 20-35 max bets do happen but when they do its already too late i have won so much it doesn't matter anymore i get it all back, and theres 2 versions of masque blackjack i been playing and the 2nd version is beatable so far

Just did this exact same thing in another thread, but for RoR =P... This is covered in my 3 A to Z articles under the articles section of this site!

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Assuming you're spreading $25-$250.
Assuming you're wonging out at < TC -1.
Assuming you're playing with about a 1.5% overall average advantage...

AvgAdv = 1.5%
AvgBet = $55.70

OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 55.70 = 64.06

EV(1,000 hands) = (AvgBet*NumHands)*(AvgAdv) = (55.7*1000)*(.015) = $835.5
SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(NumHands) * OriginalSD = Sqrt(1,000) * 64.06 = $2,025.76

1SD comes with 68% confidence, 2SD 95% confidence, 3SD 99% confidence. Thus:

With 68% confidence you'll make $835.5 +/- $2,025.76
With 95% confidence you'll make $835.5 +/- $4,051.51
With 99% confidence you'll make $835.5 +/- $6,077.28

From there you can see the best possible scenario and worst possible scenario with the difference confidence intervals.