Joined: Dec 30, 2015
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 58
August 11th, 2017 at 7:27:20 PM permalink
I would say 3/4 of card counters I see play near breakven. And about 10% have a solid edge of more than 1%. Most counters have small leaks in their game. It is very hard to play to what the sims say is your ev in real life. By the way risk of ruin is irrevalent to a casino if someone has a winning game. Even if you have a high ror x percent of counters will still hit the long run and make money. Overall card counting is a minor threat with less than a few hundred counters having a decent edge in the whole country.
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 87
August 11th, 2017 at 10:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Of people who call themselves card counters, yes, sadly I do believe that. I've taught dozens of counters, and maybe one of them had a "winning game" albeit rough understandings of RoR/Kelly/etc. And of those people I've taught most came from one forums or another where they'd already been exposed to these concepts, let alone the random friend/family/etc... And I've run in to other "counters" at the tables and in convo they show they don't know these other things at allllllll.

I seriously think the casino should do this: You're allowed to card count if you spread 1-100. 99.9999999999% of people won't have ANY concept or RoR/Kelly and they will go broke even if they count PERFECTLY and play PERFECT deviations just because they don't understand those core concepts. Never mind that the true professionals (1% of 1%) would have a field day... the others would lose more than they would make due to the shier number of losing counters.

How would that benefit the casino? RoR/Kelly doesn't matter for their bottom line, only HE does, and with a 1-100 spread it's pretty huge. Sure many will go broke and many will do pretty damn well... Am I missing something? The only advantage this would have is in killing a bunch of counters who are below the SD, hunger games style, but it'd cost a lot for the casino. Or if you mean the average HE of people who believe they are counters and use spreads is -EV (or at least the group who doesn't know RoR/Kelly and will spread to 100 overbetting their bankroll), then yeah the increase in average bet would bring more money, but although I agree the advanced concepts are not commonly applied, like bankroll management and perfect deviations, I don't think it is that hard to have a +EV game...

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