Negative Expectation Profits
But if you're talking about having a plan to have an expectation to make money.....playing a -EV game with nothing to push it into +EV territory is not gonna work. You might get lucky and win, you might be fare even on luck and lose a bit, or get unlucky and lose a lot.
Quote: RSIt's possible to win on -EV games, just like I can win a hand at roulette or BJ or craps or whatever due to luck.
Back in the 90's I sometimes had several consecutive days of winning playing poor VP strategy. It's a very compelling experience, until it starts turning around on you. You can go from VP god to mere mortal in just a day of vicious loss after loss. (at least in your mind)
Actually, I totally understand how people can get caught up in thinking they're killing the casino with some sort of skill in negative ev gaming. Illusion, unfortunately
So let's say you play this game for a couple hours a day... Getting like 500 hands per day, and you do this 4 days per week. Then you're getting 2,000 hands per week. Let's say you bet $25 flat bet (since I believe in your other thread you said that was the table minimum for this game). You can do the EXACT SAME MATH I posted in your other thread about this game to figure out where you'd be 6 months from now, 1 year from now, and 5 years from now... As you want to know what's possible for extended periods (years).
6 months from now... 52,000 hands... Total Action = 52,000 * 25 = 1.3 million... EV = -12,480... SD = 6270.97... 3SD = 18,812.90. So this means in 6 months alone you'd have to be on the RIGHT side of 3SD's to be positive. Not looking good for even 1 year "long term." I'd take a bet for sure at this point to bet that you'd be negative after 6 months, playing this game with this bet; you're negative at 2SD (~$12,500), which has 95% confidence.
1 year from now... 104,400 hands... Total Action = 104,400 * 25 = 2.61 million... EV = -25,056... SD = 8885.52... 3SD = 26,656.57. So you can see at this point it's pretty much IMPOSSIBLE to be ahead. Anything past this is going to be GUARANTEED negative, and we're taking 3SD with 99%+ confidence. More realistically you'll never come close to the far spectrum of 3SD.
I'll leave it as an exercise for you to do 2 years and 5 years from now to see just how negative you'd be mathematically guaranteed to be. I gave you the math to answer your own question in your other thread about this game. Just because it's a super low house edge doesn't make it some kind of winner. Let it go and move on to better things that you can actually have a real advantage on.
Thx.
Even when you do you have to be quite careful. The Wiz found and posted a single deck game from a site that had a player edge off the top. A lot of us, on his endorsement, went and deposited to play this game only to cumulatively prove in about a week that the game (and the site - other games) was gaffed. WOO blacklisted the site and they thankfully gave us our deposits back to try to get un-blacklisted from WOO.Quote: APEppinkYeah. Loox as tho you're right. I'd just like to find a positive expectation online game somewhere. The Wiz said (says?) there were Boss Media software positive expectation BJ games in casino's online but I've been unable to find any.
Thx.
Back in the day when people didn't understand how the rules affected the house edge, you could certainly find player edge games online. That was short lived but then you could bonus whore (what you're trying to do on Bovada) games with small house edges. Then came rollover requirements and thus ended a lot of +EV plays online. I'm not saying there aren't still +EV plays, but your odds of just finding a straight up game with a player edge, that isn't gaffed, and from a site that will actually pay you has got to be 3SD to the left lol. Point being, you're much better off finding real advantages in real casinos than something that's overseas and at any point can just Terms of Service you and steal your money... My thoughts/opinion anyways.
Quote: RomesEven when you do you have to be quite careful. The Wiz found and posted a single deck game from a site that had a player edge off the top. A lot of us, on his endorsement, went and deposited to play this game only to cumulatively prove in about a week that the game (and the site - other games) was gaffed. WOO blacklisted the site and they thankfully gave us our deposits back to try to get un-blacklisted from WOO.
Back in the day when people didn't understand how the rules affected the house edge, you could certainly find player edge games online. That was short lived but then you could bonus whore (what you're trying to do on Bovada) games with small house edges. Then came rollover requirements and thus ended a lot of +EV plays online. I'm not saying there aren't still +EV plays, but your odds of just finding a straight up game with a player edge, that isn't gaffed, and from a site that will actually pay you has got to be 3SD to the left lol. Point being, you're much better off finding real advantages in real casinos than something that's overseas and at any point can just Terms of Service you and steal your money... My thoughts/opinion anyways.
Perfect advice and reasoning, IMO, really valuable discussion. Thx Romes.
