Would You Quit, or Not?

Long story short if I am way ahead of ev I might quit. Try coining in a bunch on a volatile game, you'll change your mind real quick

Quote: AxelWolf

Hey guy's don't ease up just yet, there's blood in the water. 10 more pages of bashing and you may get him to pull a Triple A meltdown.

(AOS/Allen/Ahigh)

Catchy

Quote: odiousgambit

immaterial, I would say

I would say it is the entire point. You cannot go to looking at Expected Profit based on the time that you originally did the calculation because you are now, in fact, up $1,000. Your current Expected Profit would factor in the $1,000 that you are already ahead, and any additional Expected Profit based upon your future coin-in. That's my point, when you calculate your starting bankroll it becomes irrelevant as soon as anything happens, therefore, continuing to use that after something has already happened makes it arbitrary rather than actual.

Quote: RS

There is no question -- you keep playing.

I believe you and I have had this discussion before and, as before, I do not believe your answer serves all cases.

Suggest Romes investigate the concept of:

The Certainty Equivalent (CE), a related concept, is the guaranteed amount of money that an individual would view as equally desirable as a risky asset. For market outcomes, a risk premium is the actual excess of the expected return on a risky asset over the known return on the risk-free asset.

The ability to stop the "risk" and book the gain is not to be ignored, but must be evaluated in context.

Quote: Stealth

I believe you and I have had this discussion before and, as before, I do not believe your answer serves all cases.

Suggest Romes investigate the concept of:

The Certainty Equivalent (CE), a related concept, is the guaranteed amount of money that an individual would view as equally desirable as a risky asset. For market outcomes, a risk premium is the actual excess of the expected return on a risky asset over the known return on the risk-free asset.

The ability to stop the "risk" and book the gain is not to be ignored, but must be evaluated in context.

LOL I didn't even read the poll till just now, I just read the OP.
----------------------------------------
If you're never going to play that type of thing(percentage wise) again and you can use that money to invest in significantly stronger plays, then if you want to stop it may not be a bad idea.

But if you were ever planning on playing something similar again it wouldn't make any sense to stop just because you were up or down.

This question kinda reminds me of the no hedging commandments. "Thou shall not hedge bets" UNLESS stopping is somehow going to significantly change your life, or that money can be put to better use. Then perhaps it's ok to stop. If you're never going to gamble again I don't see how stopping really matters unless EVERYTHING in life averages out. IE up 150k above expectation today, get hit by a bus tomorrow.

I have seen AP's do some strange things, whether it be Video poker, slots, BJ etc.
IE. they find a Must hit @ a good number but not a fantastic number. They hit something good after a few minutes and stop. The next day the find a similar situation and start playing it again.

Assuming you had the bankroll to continue, would you stop during a good count just because you were up or down a significant amount ? Especially if you're going to just play again the next day.

Quote: Stealth

I believe you and I have had this discussion before and, as before, I do not believe your answer serves all cases.

Suggest Romes investigate the concept of:

The Certainty Equivalent (CE), a related concept, is the guaranteed amount of money that an individual would view as equally desirable as a risky asset. For market outcomes, a risk premium is the actual excess of the expected return on a risky asset over the known return on the risk-free asset.

The ability to stop the "risk" and book the gain is not to be ignored, but must be evaluated in context.

We've gone over this for a long time. Remember your CE software that showed you "when to quit when ahead"? I do -- it showed that you should never quit due to risk.

But if you're going to quit, it'd have to be for some other reason, like if your BR grew a huge amount and now can go play bigger stuff worth more money. But the risk should have nothing to do with it. If you're comfortable with the risk going into a play, why would you want to quit when you're ahead because of "risk"? On top of that -- (at least in our previous discussions about this topic), why would you quit...then go back to the exact same thing you were doing?

The quitting because you've reached a certain point sounds an awful lot like money management systems, the only time it really makes sense for an AP is if you're testing something and don't know what your ER is, or if your return is dependant on future offers that you're reasonably confident are in fact based on win loss to the point where theres a diminished or non existent return after a significant win.

Now if you've won enough that you don't have any need for more money and don't get a lot of enjoyment out of playing, that is a consideration.

Quote: RS

why would you quit...then go back to the exact same thing you were doing?

That would be retarded.

Obviously you could choose that as a stopping point for the day because you were tired or just didn't feel like playing more that day. Sometimes it feels good to go home a winner or sometimes you get mentally sick of losing and you need to clear your head.

PS If you're just taking pot shots at something like A higher limit VP machine, lets say something like a $25 progressive but suddenly you hit 4 aces with a kicker. I see nothing wrong with quitting and trying agian on something different or the same thing another time.

Quote: AxelWolf

That would be retarded.

Obviously you could choose that as a stopping point for the day because you were tired or just didn't feel like playing more that day. Sometimes it feels good to go home a winner or sometimes you get mentally sick of losing and you need to clear your head.

PS If you're just taking pot shots at something like A higher limit VP machine, lets say something like a $25 progressive but suddenly you hit 4 aces with a kicker. I see nothing wrong with quitting and trying agian on something different or the same thing another time.

I mean -- say a casino has a promotion: Put through $10k coin in (in 1 day) and you get $500 in free-play. After doing 2k coin in you hit a RF and you're up $3700. Some say you should quit, because the value of the promotion is ~$500, but you already have $3700. Something where you have a healthy edge and plan on doing the same thing the next day -- where you'd have to do $10k coin in the next day (not $8k). Not "taking a shot" at a higher denom/variance game.

There's a technical side and a psychological side to quitting. The psychological side says you may want to quit, because it's always nice to hit something big and not have to worry about losing it back. I get that and I'm with ya there -- if I have a small edge and playing a higher variance game, I may quit after I hit a royal....not that quitting is the right thing to do, but because I probably shouldn't even be playing a poor game (small edge + high variance).

The technical side says to keep playing unless your bankroll is being depleted and you can no longer play with comfortable risk....or if you've won so much, you can now go do something else worth more...or some other reason to quit (there's significant heat, you've met your goal, you know the mail is no good if you log a big win, etc.). From a technical standpoint, you absolutely would not quit simply because you're ahead or you're ahead by a significant amount. A card-counter doesn't quit because he just hit a blackjack with a max bet out, having made 10x his hourly EV in just 5 minutes. A spotter (card counter) doesn't quit when he's up $800, even though the value of calling in a BP may be $250. He knows he can have the $800 in actual PLUS the EV that the BP will make.


I'm saying you should not quit from a technical standpoint simply because you're ahead by some amount. That's voodoo logic and how gamblers think. And it has NOTHING to do with certainty equivalency. If you want to quit or suggest quitting when ahead for psychological/emotional reasons, I got no problem with that (although, if you've decided beforehand you're making a worthwhile +EV investment, it'd be stupid to quit because you're ahead).

Quote: RS

I mean -- say a casino has a promotion: Put through $10k coin in (in 1 day) and you get $500 in free-play. After doing 2k coin in you hit a RF and you're up $3700. Some say you should quit, because the value of the promotion is ~$500, but you already have $3700. Something where you have a healthy edge and plan on doing the same thing the next day -- where you'd have to do $10k coin in the next day (not $8k). Not "taking a shot" at a higher denom/variance game.

There's a technical side and a psychological side to quitting. The psychological side says you may want to quit, because it's always nice to hit something big and not have to worry about losing it back. I get that and I'm with ya there -- if I have a small edge and playing a higher variance game, I may quit after I hit a royal....not that quitting is the right thing to do, but because I probably shouldn't even be playing a poor game (small edge + high variance).

The technical side says to keep playing unless your bankroll is being depleted and you can no longer play with comfortable risk....or if you've won so much, you can now go do something else worth more...or some other reason to quit (there's significant heat, you've met your goal, you know the mail is no good if you log a big win, etc.). From a technical standpoint, you absolutely would not quit simply because you're ahead or you're ahead by a significant amount. A card-counter doesn't quit because he just hit a blackjack with a max bet out, having made 10x his hourly EV in just 5 minutes. A spotter (card counter) doesn't quit when he's up $800, even though the value of calling in a BP may be $250. He knows he can have the $800 in actual PLUS the EV that the BP will make.


I'm saying you should not quit from a technical standpoint simply because you're ahead by some amount. That's voodoo logic and how gamblers think. And it has NOTHING to do with certainty equivalency. If you want to quit or suggest quitting when ahead for psychological/emotional reasons, I got no problem with that (although, if you've decided beforehand you're making a worthwhile +EV investment, it'd be stupid to quit because you're ahead).

I absolutely agree. I think any solid AP knows all of this including Romes.

I thought this post was very thought provoking and interesting. I have been wondering if great results due to extremely good variance would tempt one to stop. Theory-wise, would I stop flipping a coin weighted say 1% in my favor? Probably not if I understand that is what playing with an edge essentially is. How lucky?! where you really on the Z-score chart? I'm a low risk person by nature and so realistically, while taking life goals into account, I probably would resize my bets ie. lower them, then invest in a business(life goal/personal lifestyle choice); this also diversifies ones total overall income which also aligns with my low risk nature.

A really great discussion on all sides, guys! One for the archives.

Quote: beachbumbabs

A really great discussion on all sides, guys! One for the archives.

I strongly disagree! The concept of the previous win not affecting the next hand is so simple.... All the discussion was a waste of time!

Quote: Wino

I thought this post was very thought provoking and interesting...

Ha, I'm glad someone did Wino. All I wanted this thread to do was provoke some "for fun" thoughts and get a few chuckles... Then people took it dead serious. Of course I knew the "right answers" would come out in the thread, so I wasn't worried about some kind of "miss-information," etc.

I could tell a few people got "stumped" and thus I know they had to think about it a bit harder... Which was one of the goals.

Quote: Wino

I'm a low risk person by nature and so realistically, while taking life goals into account, I probably would resize my bets ie. lower them, then invest in a business(life goal/personal lifestyle choice); this also diversifies ones total overall income which also aligns with my low risk nature.

Giving up a 1% edge to start a business is probably far more risky.

Lowering your bet to conserve or lock up money while still getting to play and get value on a 1% edge is a dam good idea. Most people had the all or nothing thinking so this was good and the best alternative suggestion yet.
Starting a business instead of playing possibly not a good idea.

Quote: Romes

Ha, I'm glad someone did Wino. All I wanted this thread to do was provoke some "for fun" thoughts and get a few chuckles... Then people took it dead serious. Of course I knew the "right answers" would come out in the thread, so I wasn't worried about some kind of "miss-information," etc.

I could tell a few people got "stumped" and thus I know they had to think about it a bit harder... Which was one of the goals.

We failed big time because....

I know you're looking for more analytical minds than mind, but I recall Bob Dancer - in speaking with his girlfriend/fiance/eventually his wife - after they were up by a huge margin. She wanted to quit playing - they were well above EV + 1 Standard Deviation.

Dancer said, "It was a good play before, it's still a good play". He kept playing.

As for me, I don't have a huge bankroll; I'd quit. At least, I hope I would. (there were times when I didn't and was glad I didn't. And times when I wished I had)

CE is not a foreign subject for risk evaluation.

Be careful with the "its stupid" as you are projecting your view not evaluating mine. What is stupid is not making decisions with all the data that is relevant to that decision. And that means all the data, technical, psychological, voodoo bullshit and whatever. And that is why I posted it.

I clearly understand the technical aspects of BOTH views and their is value is CE, if you understand its use.

I believe you are calling something CE that is not CE. What is clear to some is not clear to others.

The "CE decision" is something you have to make before the play, not during. Perhaps a play has a value (EV) of $1,000 and a CE of $250. If someone came up to you beforehand and said "I'll give you $300 right now, but if I do, you can't make the play." Then I think you absolutely should take the $300 and not do the play. That is CE. CE is not being in the middle of a play and quitting, thinking you'd rather have $300 than the EV......because in reality, you can take the $300 you're up right now AND the value of the play.

Romes, what you are talking about is just the Gambler's Fallacy as you also pointed out.
The past is the past and your future expectation has nothing to do with the past. Cards do not know your past.
If the past terated you well and your results were above expectation this does NOT mean that future expectation will be worse so that the long term averages out. Your future expectation is exactly the same whether your past results were above expectation or below expectation.

The Averaging in the long run works %wise and not in absolute terms as in the following example.
Say in the past you made $10m Bets with 1% Ev ie expected Win of $100.000 and your actual results were above expectation and made Double the profit, ie $200.000 (or 2%).
The future $10M Bets still have 1% Ev and a future expected win of $100.000.
If the future materialises exactly to expectation, ie $100.000 THEN
Your Total Win will be $300.000 over $20m bets, ie 1,5% EV over all the bets.
So your long run EV from 2% would have dropped to 1,5% which is closer to the theoretical EV of 1%.

That's what it means that your long run results will tend towards your theoretical.
Only %wise they will tend towards the theoretical.

Even if your future results are above expectation but lower than before, say you get 1,2% over the next $10m bets, your overal EV will still drop from the 2% to 1,6% (average of 2% and 1,2%) and tend towards the theoretical.

So in conclusion there is no mathemtical reason to stop playing just becuase yoy got lucky and your results exceed expectation in the past. The only reason to stop playing is a 'risk' issue. If you are happy with the money you accumulated and do not want to risk them any more, you invest them in a safer investment and be happy with the lower return and lower risk.

Quote: AceTwo

Romes, what you are talking about is just the Gambler's Fallacy as you also pointed out...

Good explanation AceTwo. I hope you read the rest of the thread as it was pointed out what the "issue" with that thinking was. The thread was made to provoke meaningful conversation, even though some non-meaningful conversation slipped in =P.

I was "half cheating" blending the gamblers fallacy with long term expected value... Using math to back up the gamblers fallacy, and I wanted to see if anyone could provide real context as to why that wasn't applicable, which several have done.

Quote: SOOPOO

I strongly disagree! The concept of the previous win not affecting the next hand is so simple.... All the discussion was a waste of time!

Yes, it's dumb and Romes should be ashamed as a "teacher" on this site espousing this kind of money management crap.

My answer remains unchanged from the first page - if it was a life-changing amount of money that enabled me to retire, I would quit and head to the pool (or the craps table for some dranks and retirement celebration). Otherwise, keep chasing than EV.

ETA: I guess it was all for "fun" or whatever. But my fear is that a n00b will come here, see that Romes posts lots of good stuff on card counting, and take it seriously.

Quote: SOOPOO

I strongly disagree! The concept of the previous win not affecting the next hand is so simple.... All the discussion was a waste of time!

Not every person reading this forum is a savvy gambler like you. We start with a common misconception or basic concept, it gets discussed and parsed, errors in thought or math pointed out, everyone comes to an understanding including the OP; gambling gold. Makes the forum useful and accessible to the very people the Wizard is trying to inform or educate. Good thread.

Even a savvy gambler will admit the many times he gambles for social reasons, to enjoy the people he is with, for fun among strangers, for free alcohol, to pass the time until dinner or a show, etc.

Some people don't even want to hear about house edge, they just want another free drink.

Some people don't travel to a distant supermarket to save three cents on a loaf of bread; some do.

Its the same with mega lottery prizes. Drive seven miles for a ticket and the chances are just about equal between you winning the grand prize or you having killed someone (or been killed) in an auto accident. NO, please do not ask for a citation or a mathematical proof. I have trouble getting to 21... that is bad shameful enough.

There is a house edge. It keeps the house winning. Even if its been seven reds... its still going to be red, black or green on that next spin. 5.26 percent house edge. The green eye shade types don't even see a five dollar chip, they just see a shiny quarter and a shiny penny...that the house edge on the five dollar bet. Honesty? You bet. That keeps that twenty-six cents coming in.

Mental goal of one million hands of BJ... any maths type will tell you... for best results put your entire bankroll on the first hand. And neither cheer nor whine at the results.

Even a slightly better than mediocre gambler like myself freely admits he's going to play video poker this weekend at a casino that has 5/7/25/40/80 Aces & Faces and only .125% cash back - which is not really cash back at all, but in the form of free play which can only be used on slots. A loser play to be sure....unless I get lucky...

Quote: AcesAndEights

Yes, it's dumb and Romes should be ashamed as a "teacher" on this site espousing this kind of money management crap.

My answer remains unchanged from the first page - if it was a life-changing amount of money that enabled me to retire, I would quit and head to the pool (or the craps table for some dranks and retirement celebration). Otherwise, keep chasing than EV.

ETA: I guess it was all for "fun" or whatever. But my fear is that a n00b will come here, see that Romes posts lots of good stuff on card counting, and take it seriously.

I'm all for shaming Romes but I do think you're off base with this.

It's obvious you don't quit because you think the math is suddenly going to catch up with you. There's nothing that says you wont continue to keep running good.

But there are some circumstances where you may want to conciser stopping and they have been discussed.

Quote: mcallister3200

I believe you are calling something CE that is not CE. What is clear to some is not clear to others.

No, I didn't misunderstand CE, what is misunderstood is its purpose and use.

I would refer you to this document and suggest you consider what are possibilities for its use in the AP world.

http://www.public.asu.edu/~kirkwood/DAStuff/decisiontrees/DecisionTreePrimer-2.pdf