Advice on Breaking Even

Hi,

A little similar to an earlier post, so I apologize.

I used to count cards quite a bit. I wouldn't say I was professional level (wasn't my main job, never played on a team, used just hi-lo and ill18) but I was/am satisfied with the results.

I still count for fun when playing anonymously, but at some places I have front money and a player's card and want longevity.

I'd like to play a break even game or a touch better than that, and not get backed off or loss comps. That way my RFB is taken care of, I have a base, and I can take side trips to other casino's and count a bit as well.

At the home base the preferred game is DD, S17 with DAS and the ability to re-split. I can do 6D with late surr plus the preceding rules, and look for decent pen.

I'm also slowing the game down, not playing heads up (further slows game), and doing a variety of things to get less hands per hour.

So, my question is there any literature on doing this? My gut (which goes against the math side) tells me 1) play BS, use the insurance, 16vT, 15vT, 10vT, 12v3, and 12v2 index plays, spread every other positive count 1-2 or maybe 3 at DD, and take frequent breaks when the count goes negative. Generally the games I would play would have a -EV of about 0.23-0.25% against play all and BS. So ... I'm looking to improve the EV by a 1/4 point or a touch better.

However, I haven't seen anything math-based on this ( I could do it empirically over time, say check the spreadsheet after 10k hands, but that could take a while to figure out I need to tweak some variables).

Now, a related question would be at some point the casino has to review their long-term W/L against me, and I need that to appear to be within reasonable ranges. I'm playing black chip, but usually under 500/hand, so I don't know if rat holing is even a viable option here.

Finally, is this just a stupid plan?


Thanks,
mel

Good question. I don't know of any literature on this but I agree with the direction you're thinking -- non-aggressive card counting. You can get above zero with strategy deviations alone. However, I would be a little more aggressive and do a 1-2 or 1-3 spread in a six-deck shoe with liberal Strip rules. Try to not do any red-flag plays like insuring lousy hands or splitting tens.

Quote: Wizard

Good question. I don't know of any literature on this but I agree with the direction you're thinking -- non-aggressive card counting. You can get above zero with strategy deviations alone. However, I would be a little more aggressive and do a 1-2 or 1-3 spread in a six-deck shoe with liberal Strip rules. Try to not do any red-flag plays like insuring lousy hands or splitting tens.

I did not know that. Glad I'm here.

I thought in a multi-deck game (especially with a count like hi-lo which, if I understand correctly, has average play deviation correlation and good bet size correlation), bet spread was where the advantage mainly came into play.

Are there any good simulators where variables could be plugged in to get some math behind the idea? I'd like to fiddle with spreads and BS deviation combinations to see what I'd need to do.

Lastly, I think advances in technology will ultimately let the casino know exactly your wins & losses down to the penny (I believe it already exists but has had some issues with 1) cost and 2) acceptance --- time will drive costs down and the technology will mature that will either drive acceptance or be so non-intrusive that the player won't know.)

mel

Quote: melroyalmcbee

I'd like to play a break even game or a touch better than that, and not get backed off or loss comps. That way my RFB is taken care of, I have a base, and I can take side trips to other casino's and count a bit as well.

$100 to $500 spread should give you a small profit; and if you have a max bet out and the count keeps going up, you can go higher without much risk of a back-off. It would take an awful lot for a casino to consider anyone with a threat with less than a 10-1 spread.

By far the best thing you can do, though, is ask someone in the pit how they structure their comps. When you buy in and someone comes over to take your card and enter your information ask them "What can I expect to earn if I play this many hours betting this much?"

Strategy deviations could actually help. If they don't have any reason to think you are counting, they may think you are a better costumer than a basic strategy player. Sneaking some chips into your pocket can't hurt. Tipping often can only help.

^^^^^ $100-$500 would give you a nice profit of $66/hour, but would definitely violate a longevity rule you want to avoid... the purple chip. Keep your bets under purples unless you want evaluated.

You can do exactly what you want... and in my opinion the Wizard was just about spot on with his advice.

It appears you're playing a bit higher limit games (or so I would assume with these good rules). Personally if longevity is something that is very important to you, I would not play the S17 DD game. This game will be MUCH MORE watched than any 6D game, as well as have more count swings which would require more betting changes (even if using a small spread).

From the description you gave I'm going to assume 6D S17 DOA DAS LS, for a house edge of .35%. Plugging this in to one of my spreadsheets I posted in my A-Z thread (and again I believe in the A-Z articles) I'm showing about $20/hour using a 1-3 ($50-$150) spread. I'm again assuming this is in the high limit room where the min bet is either $50 or $100. For $100... you can just use a 1-2 spread, betting $200 whenever the TC is +1 or greater, and have an EV of about $17.50/hour.

*These hourly EV's are based on 100 hands per hour, which I assume you will get in higher limit rooms with good dealers.
*These hourly EV's also don't take in to account the I18 deviations.

If you're purely looking for "near break even" for a base I'd go with one of these as you're still making about $20/hour which could be for cover, tips, etc, etc. High limit is going to be watched a bit more, so I'd come in for $200 and maybe bet $200 every now and again in a negative count. I also, like the Wizard suggested, would avoid typical hot plays such as splitting 10's or doubling A-8/A-9.

Quote: Romes

^^^^^ $100-$500 would give you a nice profit of $66/hour, but would definitely violate a longevity rule you want to avoid... the purple chip. Keep your bets under purples unless you want evaluated.

You can do exactly what you want... and in my opinion the Wizard was just about spot on with his advice.

Romes and Wizard and others, excellent feedback ... I think I have my game plan. Definitely more informed than me; I appreciate the input.

I don't think I've gotten better non-judgmental smart info here. Wish I would have found the site earlier.

mel