House edge of Lucky Stiff variant @ GoldStrike Tunica

All,

I was at GoldStrike in Tunica, MS today and saw a variant of the blackjack lucky stiff side bet discussed on the wizard of odds page here:

The side bet pays 5-1 for the 12-16 stiff wins, PUSH for blackjack, pays 10-1 on player 66,77,88 and 40-1 on triple match for 66,77,88 (where dealer gets dealt the matching 6,7,8 as well) and ties are a push.

The table was $5 minimum with $5 minimum for the side bet, 6 decks from a shoe, H17.

Can someone tell me what the house advantage of that bet is?

How would the house edge be affected by betting 1:1 with the main bet vs 1/3 side bet ($15 BJ, $5 side bet)

Thanks in advance

Quote: capsfan80

All,

I was at GoldStrike in Tunica, MS today and saw a variant of the blackjack lucky stiff side bet discussed on the wizard of odds page here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/lucky-stiff-blackjack/

The side bet pays 5-1 for the 12-16 stiff wins, PUSH for blackjack, pays 10-1 on player 66,77,88 and 40-1 on triple match for 66,77,88 (where dealer gets dealt the matching 6,7,8 as well) and ties are a push.

The table was $5 minimum with $5 minimum for the side bet, 6 decks from a shoe, H17.

Can someone tell me what the house advantage of that bet is?

How would the house edge be affected by betting 1:1 with the main bet vs 1/3 side bet ($15 BJ, $5 side bet)

Thanks in advance

Well, with the given page you linked the house edge of the Lucky Stiff side bet you described should be "approximately" 4%. The push on BJ hurts, but of course the triple match is a bit of a bonus. The BJ game's house edge is quite easy to calculate if you know the rules, just use the wizard's house edge calculator.

Thus, for the BJ bet ($15) you can find the house edge and the Expected Loss per bet. Then, you can do the same thing with the side bet ($5), given an approximate 4% HE.

If you really want to do the math just update the Wiz's columns... BJ = push, so Return = 0.000000... Then add 1 line item for the Triple Match. Take an example for the probability: 7-7-7... in 6D the odds of you get 7-7 is:

P(777) = P(First Card 7) * P(Second Card 7) * P(Dealer Card 7)

P(First Card 7) = 24/312... since there are four 7's per deck and 6 decks.
P(Second Card 7) = 23/312... since there's one less 7 in the 6 decks (your first card).
P(Dealer Card 7) = 22/312... since you already have two 7's from the 6 decks.

Thus, P(777) = (24/312) * (23/312) * (22/312) = 0.0769 * 0.0737 * 0.0705 = .00039956, or about 1 in 2500.

Remember though, this is just for 777, but you're saying it also pays on 666 and 888... P(Triple Match) = P(666) + P(777) + P(888). Given that there are the same # of all of these in the deck, it stands to reason they're all the same probability... So P(Triple Match) = .00039956 + .00039956 + .00039956 = .0012, or about 1 in 830.

So the new line item would be: Player Triple Match........ PAYS 40 ......... PROBABILITY = .0012...... RETURN = .048

THEREFOR, I'll submit that the Blackjack PUSH return HURTS you for the return (.47) where as the Triple Match HELPS you for the return (.48)... and thus the House Edge of the side bet is "approximately" the same 4% =).

I just came across this post when doing a Google search....House Edge for the pay table at Gold Strike is 5.18% per the game's math report.