confused about soft 18 in BJ
Thanks much
Roughly
0....10.....20.....30.....40.....50.....60.....70.....80.....90....100
<21><--20---><--------19--------><--18---><--17---><------Bust------>
The important thing is a Dealer 19 is so likely compared to the other numbers it is worth taking the risk of hitting soft 18. The advantages of getting a 19 (likely to stand-off), 20 and 21 (most likely to win) far exceed the downsides of 17 or getting 12-16 and having to hit again.
Quote: charliepatrickThe easiest situation to try and understand in against a 9. The others are similar but not by so much of a margin.
Roughly
0....10.....20.....30.....40.....50.....60.....70.....80.....90....100
<21><--20---><--------19--------><--18---><--17---><------Bust------>
The important thing is a Dealer 19 is so likely compared to the other numbers it is worth taking the risk of hitting soft 18. The advantages of getting a 19 (likely to stand-off), 20 and 21 (most likely to win) far exceed the downsides of 17 or getting 12-16 and having to hit again.
Sorry to sound stupid...but
i don't understand the top row of your chart
You will see that standing an 18 vs a 9, 10, and A carries a return of -0.183163, -0.178301, and -0.100199 respectively. It's a losing expectation.
When you hit a soft 18 vs a 9, 10, and A, the probabilities change to -0.100744, -0.143808, and -0.092935 respectively. Let's think about this in terms of an infinite deck.
When you hit a soft 18, your outcomes are:
17: 11.142%
18: 34.219%
19: 11.142%
20: 11.142%
21: 11.142%
Bust: 21.211%.
The easy analysis is that you better your hands 33.426% of the time and worsen your hand 32.353% of the time. That makes hitting a good thing when your HA is already negative against a dealer's 9, 10, or A. Against a 9, 10, A, these hard hands carry:
17: -0.423154 -0.419721 -0.478033
18: -0.183163 -0.178301 -0.100199
19: 0.287597 0.063118 0.277636
20 0.758357 0.554538 0.655470
21: 0.939176 0.962624 0.922194
So your improved hand carries a lot better outcome.
The odds of you running into a soft 18 against a 9-10-A is not small (once every 125 hands for a two or three card combination) meaning that at head-head over a four hour session you might run into it 4 times. That translates to about $.96 / hand that you throws away on a $25 table or about .03% of HA.
Quote: SiegfriedRoy18 is actually a very deceiving hand. If you consistently get 18 every single hand for a lifetime, you'd be a losing player in the long run. I know it may feel silly to hit a soft 18 against a 9, 10 or an Ace, but it is the right play in the long run.
Wanna play a game?
Quote: RSWanna play a game?
What are you saying? Are you saying I'm wrong?
Quote: wallyworldIs it not true that we are to assume the dealers hole card is a 10?
How do you play a hard 19 against a 10? Do you assume the dealer has a ten in the hole then?
Quote: SiegfriedRoyWhat are you saying? Are you saying I'm wrong?
If you have 18 every single hand and let the dealer play their hand out as normal, you would absolutely be a winner.
If you have 18 vs 9,T,A every single hand, then you'll be a loser.
Quote: RSIf you have 18 every single hand and let the dealer play their hand out as normal, you would absolutely be a winner.
If you have 18 vs 9,T,A every single hand, then you'll be a loser.
Can I see some math to this? I will admit my statement is wrong if I see some math.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyCan I see some math to this? I will admit my statement is wrong if I see some math.
Quick search I got this: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/
Add up the totals on the 18-line. Remember to count "vs 10" 4 times and not once. That is S17, though.
I'm sure there are other similar charts for H17. I'll look a little bit more for it.
These charts too (best) - https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2a/ have all game-types (1-6 decks, S/H17):
6 Decks- Dealer Hits on Soft 17
DEALER'S
UP CARD DEALER'S FINAL TOTAL
17 18 19 20 21 BUST
Ace 0.082842 0.206593 0.206757 0.207262 0.095264 0.201281
2 0.130071 0.135978 0.131607 0.125662 0.120022 0.356661
3 0.1259 0.13193 0.126656 0.122185 0.116371 0.376958
4 0.122458 0.125405 0.12262 0.11783 0.113217 0.39847
5 0.118089 0.123042 0.118216 0.112435 0.108586 0.419632
6 0.115064 0.114574 0.115043 0.110177 0.105882 0.439259
7 0.369208 0.137931 0.078428 0.078682 0.073816 0.261936
8 0.12894 0.359955 0.128723 0.069219 0.06947 0.243693
9 0.12031 0.117348 0.351854 0.120368 0.060877 0.229242
10 0.121273 0.121007 0.121306 0.368447 0.037729 0.230239
All 0.140113 0.148245 0.142446 0.190581 0.078607 0.300007
Trying to edit to make chart easier to read. argh!
Screw it!
Quote: RSQuick search I got this: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/
Add up the totals on the 18-line. Remember to count "vs 10" 4 times and not once. That is S17, though.
I'm sure there are other similar charts for H17. I'll look a little bit more for it.
These charts too (best) - https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2a/ have all game-types (1-6 decks, S/H17):6 Decks- Dealer Hits on Soft 17
DEALER'S
17 18 19 20 21 BUST
Ace 0.082842 0.206593 0.2067 0.2072 0.095264 0.2012
2 0.130071 0.135978 0.1316 0.1256 0.120022 0.3566
3 0.1259 0.13193 0.1266 0.1221 0.116371 0.3769
4 0.122458 0.125405 0.1226 0.1178 0.113217 0.3984
5 0.118089 0.123042 0.1182 0.1124 0.108586 0.4196
6 0.115064 0.114574 0.1150 0.1101 0.105882 0.4392
7 0.369208 0.137931 0.0784 0.0786 0.073816 0.2619
8 0.12894 0.359955 0.1287 0.0692 0.06947 0.2436
9 0.12031 0.117348 0.3518 0.1203 0.060877 0.2292
10 0.121273 0.121007 0.1213 0.3684 0.037729 0.2302
All 0.140113 0.148245 0.1424 0.1905 0.078607 0.3000
Shaved off a few of the last decimal % points to view chart easier.
No need. I see it very clearly. My statement was wrong. It seems to be 17 not 18 you will lose in the long run
As for the OP: 18 vs 9/T/A is a poor hand. They're losers. Sure, you might hit, catch a 4-7, hit again, and end up busting or with another similarly poor hand. But, it's the right thing to do -- you'll lose less by hitting soft-18's vs 9/T/A.
PS: You do NOT want to assume the next card nor the dealer's hole/next card is a 10. If you've never played blackjack before and it's the first time you're on the table playing, then you'd probably be better off playing similar to as if you thought the next/hole card is a ten (but not cut & dry, 100% it's a 10...but from the vantage of "it's more likely).
PSS: If you know basic strategy or are using another [more advanced strategy, like card-counting with play deviations], then you should just play by-the-book and hit/stand when the strategy warrants it.
See Wizards Blackjack Appendix 5
So I would take the bet. Keep in mind that you lose against all blackjacks and you can't split your 9s or hit your soft 18s. The probabilities that the wizard shows assumes that the dealer has already peeked for and didn't have blackjack. So your 18 vs an Ace is actually something like -46.2%, and against a 10 about -23.8% because the dealer hasn't checked their hole card yet. The wizard's probability tables are post-peek.
Quote: RSIf you have 18 every single hand and let the dealer play their hand out as normal, you would absolutely be a winner.
If you have 18 vs 9,T,A every single hand, then you'll be a loser.
Maybe 18.25 or so. I can send you to a game where you can bet the 18 every hand. Good luck.
Quote: RSHmm...You're right. I wasn't thinking about dealer BJ's. I'll edit my posts so as to not cause any confusion for future readers.
No big deal. I never checked the math myself. For a long time, I was told 18 was a losing hand in the long run, but never bothered to do a math check.
Let's make a bet. I will give you a piece of paper every time that says you have 18. You can choose the number of decks the dealer has.
Single Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00311
Double Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00509
Four Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00608
...
Quote: boymimbo18 is ALWAYS a losing hand in the long run.
Let's make a bet. I will give you a piece of paper every time that says you have 18. You can choose the number of decks the dealer has.
Single Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00311
Double Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00509
Four Deck Stand 17: HA = -.00608
...
Can I get first card info?
you are not aloneQuote: wallyworldBJ basic strategy calls for hitting soft 18 vs a dealer 9-A, this confuses me.
the haters, and there are many, will still hate
so I say "smile"
it is trueQuote: wallyworldIs it not true that we are to assume the dealers hole card is a 10?
that the vast majority of BJ players ever to play the game
do say just that
"we are to assume the dealer's hole card is a 10"
it is an opinion of course
looking at it a different way...
there are 4 ways to get a 10-point-card
10-Jack-Queen-King
there are 5 ways to get a 2-3-4-5-6
so it looks like the Dealer's hole card is more likely to be a 2 thru 6
than
a
10
I bet the UNDER and knot the over in this case.
*****
but it still does not change the fact
most say the Dealer's hole card should be thought-to-B a 10
*****
so you have a soft 18 against a 19 or a 20
do you stand,
yes way
and most due,
and hope the Dealer busts, and sometimes the Dealer does just that
play BJ for fun and not math
if you have less fun hitting that soft 18
stop
and due-not-hit-it
and see how you feel after your results
have fun
B yourself
play the way that makes you feel the best
that makes you a winner in the long run
Sally
That's a complement.
And there is no excuse. You can print the wizard's strategy card and take it with you and use it at the table. It's mathematically proven with few exceptions (composite strategy, counting, etc).
Quote: boymimboYou will get a soft 18 vs 9-10-A in about 1 in 125 hands. Not insignificant and will cost you about a $1 per occurrence if played incorrectly. Those 1-8% misplays add up. It's also why VP players who don't memorize and practice the strategy leave a couple of percent (at least) at the machine.
And there is no excuse. You can print the wizard's strategy card and take it with you and use it at the table. It's mathematically proven with few exceptions (composite strategy, counting, etc).
Amen. I think every player big or small should always take the BS strategy card to their game. Even if you lose, you can always feel better that you played it right.
Haha I ask this question to everyone whom tells me to ALWAYS assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole. "Better start hitting that hard 19 when a dealer has a 10 up then!"Quote: WizardHow do you play a hard 19 against a 10? Do you assume the dealer has a ten in the hole then?
I'm surprised no one mentioned this yet... To answer the OP's question: The average hand in blackjack is OVER 18 (like 18.25). Thus, I hope you can see why 18 just isn't good enough when you know you're in a bad situation against a dealer 9-10-A.
Thanks to all that took the time to pitch in! I certainly have a better understanding of the theory/logic/odds, etc...
Needless to say, I will stick with the Wizards basic strategy card (which I printed and laminated!), and consider hitting soft 18 on 10, the same as hitting 16 when called for..."you don't like to do it, but do it you must!"
And to the Wizard's question..."How do you play a hard 19 against a 10? Do you assume the dealer has a ten in the hole then?", it would appear my assumption was not correct! And, you know what they say when you assume something...
Thanks again to all.
Wallyworld
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI'd say for the average gambler, it might not make a huge difference in the short-term. However, if you play it right you will win more hands in the long run. My brother has been playing BJ for a long time (red chipper). He has recently started playing $25 a hand. On a couple of prior trips playing with me, I corrected his habit of staying on 12 against a 2, staying 12 against a 3, not hitting soft 17 against 7 or better, not hitting soft 18 against 9 or better, and not doubling down 9 on 3-6(dealer cards), and not surrendering when available. Since his correction, he says he has had more winning trips and than losing trips. To state the obvious he says he has more fun playing the right way and winning.
Actually with soft 17 you should never stand regardless of what the dealer has (not just with high upcards).
Quote: KellynbnfActually with soft 17 you should never stand regardless of what the dealer has (not just with high upcards).
I see how that can be confusing. My brother already hit on S17 against 2-6 dealer up card (that's why it was not mentioned as something i had to correct). He just didn't like hitting S17 against dealer's 7-A. The latter is what i corrected hence why I put that. Yes, you should hit S17 regardless. No argument there.
Quote: SiegfriedRoyI see how that can be confusing. My brother already hit on S17 against 2-6 dealer up card (that's why it was not mentioned as something i had to correct). He just didn't like hitting S17 against dealer's 7-A. The latter is what i corrected hence why I put that. Yes, you should hit S17 regardless. No argument there.
Just to attempt to clarify, basic strategy only, the consensus for soft 17, double against dealers 3-6, otherwise hit. That for both S17 and H17 games. I think I have that correct.
A-7 doubles to 2-6 in H17, and 3-6 in S17 (but still doubles at 2 in a TC +1).Quote: TwoFeathersATLJust to attempt to clarify, basic strategy only, the consensus for soft 17, double against dealers 3-6, otherwise hit. That for both S17 and H17 games. I think I have that correct.
A-7 is my favorite hand because it always has action, except against two cards... A dealer 7 or 8.
A-7 hits to dealer A-10-9
A-7 stays to dealer 8-7 (and stays to 2 if S17)
A-7 doubles to 6-3 (and doubles to 2 if H17)
Also, it's a double/stand on the basic strategy... Thus if you find yourself with a 3 card Soft 18 to a dealer 4, you STAND because you can not double.
Romes answered the soft 18 question correctly, I attempted to address an oversight in a post about soft 17.
But Damn, Romes does it so much better!
Quote: IbeatyouracesIt's reasons like this that you are not supposed to call these hands "soft 17, soft 18, etc.". They should be called "ace and the sum of the other cards." Therefore, "soft 18" is A,7; A,2+3+2; A,5+2; etc. This eliminates the confusion and they're cashed what they really are, A,7. Just add up all other cards EXCEPT lone ace. If more than one ace is included, add the others the total the other cards.
You are correct of course, even though your writing is confusing as well.
Thread is 'Soft 18 questions', but soft 17 got discussed as well.
Siegfried addressed the Soft 17 question, but said 'hit' and forgot the 'double when' part.
I added it in when I noticed what I assumed was an oversight.
Then Romes addressed the Soft 18 question, correctly.
I don't see a problem talking about Soft 17 or Soft 18 per se.
You do need to couch it in proper terms, ie Basic strategy, non composition dependent, and specify whether it is a S17 or H17 game.
<edit> of course you do need to understand the difference between doubling an A-6 and an A-3-3 but hopefully the dealer will help you out if you try to screw it up ;-)
We all clear here?
Quote: TwoFeathersATLYou are correct of course, even though your writing is confusing as well.
Thread is 'Soft 18 questions', but soft 17 got discussed as well.
Siegfried addressed the Soft 17 question, but said 'hit' and forgot the 'double when' part.
I added it in when I noticed what I assumed was an oversight.
Then Romes addressed the Soft 18 question, correctly.
I don't see a problem talking about Soft 17 or Soft 18 per se.
You do need to couch it in proper terms, ie Basic strategy, non composition dependent, and specify whether it is a S17 or H17 game.
<edit> of course you do need to understand the difference between doubling an A-6 and an A-3-3 but hopefully the dealer will help you out if you try to screw it up ;-)
We all clear here?
We are on the same page. That is what I meant. Hit/double when necessary.
Quote: WizardHow do you play a hard 19 against a 10? Do you assume the dealer has a ten in the hole then?
I think you need to not think about assuming anything.
It has been determined (Basic Strategy) by countless sims of billions of hands that the best play of your 19 versus a DEALER UP CARD (no assumption needed) of 10 is to Stand. Trust the law of large numbers.
Sorry
Quote: SiegfriedRoy18 is actually a very deceiving hand. If you consistently get 18 every single hand for a lifetime, you'd be a losing player in the long run. I know it may feel silly to hit a soft 18 against a 9, 10 or an Ace, but it is the right play in the long run.
I believe this is why they call it gambling. The problem is - most cannot play for the long run. Every time you get up to do something else - even though the long run continues the next time you sit down, when you leave, you may have missed an opportunity to win. But, if you don't get up, even with "perfect" play, over time, in the long run, the house will win. That deck is stacked against all of us.
There is nothing wrong with being identified as a good basic strategy player (other than the casino will give you a lower rating for comps).
But once the pit decides you know basic strategy they may start to look to see if you are varying wagers and standing and hitting 16 vs 10 differently at different times and insuring BJ sometimes and not others.
It's sort of a gateway indicator to a players abilities, but you just can't start playing all these hands incorrectly for cover purposes or you give away any advantage you may have or if you are not playing with an advantage, you increase the disadvantage you are up against.
Especially hitting against a dealer's 9 since it's counter-intuitive.Quote: kewlj... playing soft 18 correctly...best shows that a player knows basic strategy...
Quote: charliepatrickEspecially hitting against a dealer's 9 since it's counter-intuitive.
Just tell the civilians that you "assume a 10 in the hole" therefore I have to hit my A,7 vs a 9 (or 10/ace).
