Joined: Oct 13, 2015
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 87
October 13th, 2015 at 2:13:20 AM permalink
Hey Wizard ! Great stuff on being different from other half-half sites out
I have different questions from average.
1.is it possible to beat online blackjack but with live dealers and real
shoes? Id say obviously with card counting but am i missing something?

2.Given 1. is true would it be best to only jump in mid-shuffle of a shoe
and only if you counted into positive or am i missing something here too?

Thanks man .Would appreciate some of your wizardry insight
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5467
October 13th, 2015 at 8:43:18 AM permalink
Hi zuti6, and welcome to the forums. I can more than answer your questions as I've answered this same thread probably 3-4 times so far.

About every couple months someone posts exactly what you did about online live blackjack games. The simple answer is NO. The main reason is the Penetration. Almost every online live blackjack game I've seen, or been referenced to, uses 8 decks and cuts about 4 decks off. What most people do not realize is this is simply not playable, from a card counting perspective. The more penetration you have, the more variance you'll have in the count, meaning the more high and low counts you'll see, but you're just interested in seeing more high counts. Overall, the more penetration the more opportunities you'll have to bet bigger. Thus, penetration is king!

In these games with such GOD AWFUL 50% penetration you'll rarely see good counts. Well, how do you adjust for that? When you only see a few good counts a shoe (if that) then you need to take more advantage of them and bet even harder/more. This will JACK your variance in the already volatile game up to a point where it's simply not plausible to play. Basically, you'd have to play table min (say $10) and then in really good counts you'd have to bet $400-$500, instead of a normal big bet of like $150. In order to try to "stomach" this variance, you'll need a bankroll of like $500,000... which 99% of people do not have (in order to make an hourly wage of like $25).

I hope you see a small window in to why these games are not countable, but if you'd like a very much more detailed reason why, just simply go back a few pages in this blackjack sub-forum and find the other threads about "ONLINE LIVE BLACKJACK" games. Or use the SEARCH function at the top of the page and type in "ONLINE LIVE BLACKJACK."

If you'd like to understand Card Counting more, including more on Penetration and other rules, then I invite you to read my 3 articles posted in the Articles Section of this very site:

Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

Many have had the same idea as you before, but what non-counters don't realize is just how important the penetration is to a game of blackjack. It is the #1 thing real card counters look for in a game, above ALL other rules. For your reference the MINIMUM penetration most would play is 6/8 decks, or 75% PEN. Most professional counters look for 80%+ and don't even play shorter PEN games.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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