Copy Cat side bet
Aliante Casino just added brand new tables this past month with the side bet. It is on their regular double deck game. Pays 4:1 with 1 match to dealer up card (2), 50-1 for 2 matched to dealer card (3), and 500:1 if the down card is also matched (4).
Anyone know the house edge?
P. S. It appears all the offstrip casinos like Silverton and Aliante are missing from the blackjack survey. Or is there a sort option I'm not seeing on the mobile device?
Quote: MichaelMSIt appears the odds on COPY CAT side bet were removed from the side bet page on here.
Aliante Casino just added brand new tables this past month with the side bet. It is on their regular double deck game. Pays 4:1 with 1 match to dealer up card (2), 50-1 for 2 matched to dealer card (3), and 500:1 if the down card is also matched (4).
Anyone know the house edge?
P. S. It appears all the offstrip casinos like Silverton and Aliante are missing from the blackjack survey. Or is there a sort option I'm not seeing on the mobile device?
Is this based completely on Rank, or do all ten value cards count as ten value cards?
Quote: MichaelMSIt appears the odds on COPY CAT side bet were removed from the side bet page on here.
Aliante Casino just added brand new tables this past month with the side bet. It is on their regular double deck game. Pays 4:1 with 1 match to dealer up card (2), 50-1 for 2 matched to dealer card (3), and 500:1 if the down card is also matched (4).
Anyone know the house edge?
P. S. It appears all the offstrip casinos like Silverton and Aliante are missing from the blackjack survey. Or is there a sort option I'm not seeing on the mobile device?
I wish I wasn't doing this from my phone, but here we go from the top of two fresh decks:
You will definitely get one card, so the probability of your second card being a different rank is 96/103. The probability of the Dealer matching either card, in this case, is 14/102, thus:
96/103 * 14/102 = .127927
The value is .127927 * 4 = .511708
The probability that your two cards are the same rank is 7/103. The probability of the Dealer matching the first card and not the second is 6/102 * 96/101, thus:
7/103 * 6/102 * 96/101 = .0037998
The value is .0037998 * 50 = .18999
Finally, the probability that your two cards and both dealer cards match is:
7/103 * 6/102 * 5/101 = .0001979
The value is .0001979 * 500 = .09895
The Expected Return is .511708 + .18999 + .09895 = .800648, with some errors due to rounding. The House Edge is 19.9352%, approximately. I'd be more exact were I not on a phone.
Quote: MichaelMSThank you so much. Bunch of people were saying it was better than pair square, more like 2x as bad. Thanks again!
You're welcome!
Side bets are typically worse than the Basic Strategy of the Main Game, in general, but you want to be especially wary of those with long-shot payouts. The dynamics of Pair Square did not immediately spring to mind when I read your post, but prior to looking it up, I was about 95.6% confident no 500-1 payout would be involved.
Although, I am interested in whether or not this could theoretically be countable. I imagine it could if you had a disproportionate number of, "Same cards," the 50-1 and 500-1 wins might gain a ton of value, I suspect. I'll have to wait until I am actually on a computer, though.
Quote: Mission146The Expected Return is .511708 + .18999 + .09895 = .800648, with some errors due to rounding. The House Edge is 19.9352%, approximately. I'd be more exact were I not on a phone.
You forgot to account for losses, which you have to do since the payouts are on a "to one" basis. Here are my results:
| Outcome | Net Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both player cards same rank as both dealer cards | +500 | 21,840 | 0.000198 | +0.098953 |
| Both player cards same rank as dealer upcard | +50 | 419,328 | 0.003800 | +0.189990 |
| One player card same rank as dealer upcard | +4 | 14,117,376 | 0.127927 | +0.511708 |
| All other | -1 | 95,796,480 | 0.868075 | -0.868075 |
| Totals | 110,355,024 | 1.000000 | -0.067424 | |
So the house edge is 6.74%.
Quote: MichaelMSIt appears the odds on COPY CAT side bet were removed from the side bet page on here...
To the administrators of the Wizard of Odds site, MichaelMS is also pointing out that the link for Copy Cat does not work. Could this link be fixed, or should the link be removed?
I wish they would just standardize everything to, "For one!" Roulette uses it, the Craps Fire Bet uses it, all or almost all Slots/VP/VK use it.
Quote: Mission146I wish they would just standardize everything to, "For one!" Roulette uses it, the Craps Fire Bet uses it, all or almost all Slots/VP/VK use it.
You could also do it the way you did it by adding 1 to the payouts (use 501, 51, 5 instead of 500, 50, 4) that way you can ignore losses since -1 + 1 = 0.
Quote: JBYou could also do it the way you did it by adding 1 to the payouts (use 501, 51, 5 instead of 500, 50, 4) that way you can ignore losses since -1 + 1 = 0.
That's true, just 'make it,' for one. Of course, it'd have had to occur to me that it was to one in the first place. Still a great tip, though, thanks!!! I've always felt that having to account for loses is an unnecessary step.
Quote: JBYou forgot to account for losses, which you have to do since the payouts are on a "to one" basis. Here are my results:
Outcome Net Win Combinations Probability Return Both player cards same rank as both dealer cards +500 21,840 0.000198 +0.098953 Both player cards same rank as dealer upcard +50 419,328 0.003800 +0.189990 One player card same rank as dealer upcard +4 14,117,376 0.127927 +0.511708 All other -1 95,796,480 0.868075 -0.868075 Totals 110,355,024 1.000000 -0.067424
So the house edge is 6.74%.
Oh it's not that bad then. Pairsquare on double deck is about 10% so it's actually slightly better.
I definitely agree they are all sucker bets except maybe the Tie bet at Palace Station. But I just bet less on it the worse the odds are. I won't touch Lucky Ladies, might as well play the slots at that return. But I don't mind <10% for a little bit more excitement.
I just play for fun, drinks, and comps. :)
Thanks again guys, this site is awesome.
