tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
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August 27th, 2015 at 8:15:21 AM permalink
hi, the bright persons.

i really want to know how counting in csm working.i want to try it but i need more positive feedbacks for experts

i read also the text from Stephanhow. when recommened by Eliot. which say it is countable. i trust this. mainly because cards are in rate, like 30 cards, 15 of them should be small, 15 of them should be big. it is not scientific. but it is for 80% of the case.

it is counting only last hand, at least 16 cards( Stephanhow's idea), only running count, no true count, then it is +4, ev is +.

in my addicted-to-learn-for-more-than-10 years, it should be 52 cards, but no one can be sure of this, though i tried to watch, to ask, to search some years ago. maybe i will buy a cheap one to look into it.

now comes what i will do, when it is 4+. 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ even more than 10+

1 hand of 4 units, or 2 hands of 2 units or 4 hands of 1 unit. or what? i don't want to be 'as i wish'. i just want to know what the better is by software test.

of course, i trust Stephanhow. i just want to get more confidence it will work well.
Dieter
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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August 27th, 2015 at 9:39:07 AM permalink
Quote: tomchina123

of course, i trust Stephanhow. i just want to get more confidence it will work well.



There is a possible, tiny edge.

In order to gain advantage, you need a huge bet spread, which means huge variance. Huge variance means there will be very large downswings (and very large upswings).

You need to be prepared for the downswings.

There are probably better plays available.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
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August 27th, 2015 at 10:22:12 AM permalink
thanks for the feedback.

i play it in macao. as you may know, macao is crazy, all are playing big. maybe i cannot do huge bet spread.

but why?

you see,
1) i play only the +ev hands, then no matter big or small, it should be taken as winning.
2) maybe i need to paly 50% -ev, 50%+ev, then -ev is smaller bet=1 unit, +ev is bigger bets=2 units=6 units. then not winning?

but i really understand blackjack is easy to suffer good lucks and bad lucks, for good ones, it can be 30 wins, 5 losses at basic strategy. bad ones, +5,-30.

for better plays, in Macao, i guess only dragon 7 of baccarat. i will do it for fun, it is said for this side bet in macao, it can be USD500 about.

Tom.
Dieter
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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August 27th, 2015 at 11:00:49 AM permalink
Quote: tomchina123


1) i play only the +ev hands, then no matter big or small, it should be taken as winning.



If you are sitting out "bad" hands, that is a huge bet spread.

Most hands are -EV.
May the cards fall in your favor.
KingoftheEye
KingoftheEye
Joined: Jun 26, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Francisco
August 28th, 2015 at 11:12:04 AM permalink
Quote: tomchina123

thanks for the feedback.

i play it in macao. as you may know, macao is crazy, all are playing big. maybe i cannot do huge bet spread.

but why?

you see,
1) i play only the +ev hands, then no matter big or small, it should be taken as winning.
2) maybe i need to paly 50% -ev, 50%+ev, then -ev is smaller bet=1 unit, +ev is bigger bets=2 units=6 units. then not winning?

but i really understand blackjack is easy to suffer good lucks and bad lucks, for good ones, it can be 30 wins, 5 losses at basic strategy. bad ones, +5,-30.

for better plays, in Macao, i guess only dragon 7 of baccarat. i will do it for fun, it is said for this side bet in macao, it can be USD500 about.
=
Tom.



Someone on the site who is more math inclined feel free to correct me, but I believe you get back about 0.5% house edge for each true count of +1. Since CSMs have 6 decks you need a +6 running count in a round for a +1 true count, which happens regularly in a single round of BJ. However, since most Macau shops have a HE of <0.25% you would only need a running count of +3 in one round (true count +0.5) to break even or better. Assuming you get at least 1 round before cards are reintroduced to the game you can get an edge. Of course you have to have a big bankroll to play Macau where the minimums on BJ are $40 on a slow weekday which I imagine would put this out of reach of most AP's. I'm no math expert, just a humble casino guy, so I may be wrong here.

As for Dragon 7, if any casinos in Macau still have that bet, go get 'em.
tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
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August 28th, 2015 at 6:24:08 PM permalink
thanks, you are the guy i want to talk with.

how many cards are in the chute you think for most csm if not all?

if +6, i am alone, best to play 2 hands or?

if +6, there are some other 3 or 4 perosns, shall i play 2 hands?

dragon 7, yes, there are taken as new. going to be in pop.
KingoftheEye
KingoftheEye
Joined: Jun 26, 2015
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August 29th, 2015 at 11:58:43 AM permalink
Quote: tomchina123

thanks, you are the guy i want to talk with.

how many cards are in the chute you think for most csm if not all?

if +6, i am alone, best to play 2 hands or?

if +6, there are some other 3 or 4 perosns, shall i play 2 hands?

dragon 7, yes, there are taken as new. going to be in pop.



Actually, I'm not the guy. There are others on this site who can give you better info on how many hands to play. I'm just someone who has managed to be successful in the business, not a mathematician or game analyzer.

As for how many cards in the chute, that doesn't matter so much as how many cards come out before old cards come out again. Anyone who has access to a One2Six probably won't give that out on an open forum. I can tell you that it is fairly quick and easy to figure it out if you can get your hands on a machine. Or you can always reach out to some AP's here who may have that. I'm a casino guy after all, you can't expect me to give you everything ;-).
tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
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August 29th, 2015 at 6:34:03 PM permalink
i see.

by the way, what is AP here? i saw this word so many times.
nickolay411
nickolay411
Joined: Sep 7, 2011
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August 29th, 2015 at 9:15:09 PM permalink
tomchina123,

AP is advantage player.

Macau's card buffers have 14 cards. You can beat the game but the swings are huge when you spread so big. scary...
tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 282
August 30th, 2015 at 9:45:43 AM permalink
Quote: nickolay411

tomchina123,

AP is advantage player.

Macau's card buffers have 14 cards. You can beat the game but the swings are huge when you spread so big. scary...



thanks for the info, Nicko.

for the spread, i guess, it is like this:

because i need to bet on all -true counts, it is a lot. for some + true counts of much less, my bet needs to cover all the bets of - true counts,

right?

if so, for Macao, the good is that you can sit all the time to wait to bet only good counts. this way will work by maths?

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