Insurance is a house scam, except for...
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I ended up playing $10-100 at this dumpy casino yesterday: 6D, 3:2, H17, DaS, fairly crummy penetration.
I was at third base with two other players and was down $225 or so, after losing some green chip double downs and being dealt some fairly crummy cards.
The next shoe got warm almost instantly and eventually scalding hot. Count shot up to where I needed to throw down the big bet ($100), so I ante'd up and jumped on two spots at $75 each (I do this when I don't plan on ever coming back or whenever I can get away with it...it's a bit obvious).
Final hands of the shoe were as follows:
1. Me (Two @ $75): A,9 and 10,7. Dealer showing A. Insurance was warranted so I took it with $225 on the line. Dealer (a cute Asian girl) flips a queen. Whew!
Next friggin hand...
2. Me (Two @ $75): A,8 and K-K. Dealer showing A. (Are you kidding me?). Count still warranted insurance, so I pony'ed up, not even thinking twice. Guy next to me groans. Dealer checks, cracks a smile, and flips over a Jack. The guy that groaned says: "Jesus!"
3. At that point, the count dropped, so I played the final hand with two @ $60: 10,10 and a 5-3 against a dealer 5. I dialed up the index play and doubled on that 8. Pulled a 5 (LOL). Dealer flips a King and then an 8. Money baby!
Crazy ass shoe was over, with a $525 swing in my favor from beginning to end. Left up $300. The pit boss was already on the phone as I was coloring up. Turned in my blacks and got the f out of dodge.
The proudest moment of my nearly two-year counting career came on those two insurance plays...and of course, I won nothing on them.
Quote: AmleeThe pit boss was already on the phone as I was coloring up. Turned in my blacks and got the f out of dodge.
Did you really get this much heat betting 2 spots of 75 at a 6 deck game after taking insurance? That seems really hard to believe, are you sure you aren't imagining the heat?
You should see the unspeakable things I've done to my local DD games with greens and nothing resembling that kind of heat.
You must have been reading a different post, LOL.Quote: WizardSorry for your losses. Insurance, like all side bets, is a sucker bet. Live and learn.
Why didn't you split the 10's against the 5?
Quote: teddysYou must have been reading a different post, LOL.
Why didn't you split the 10's against the 5?
He didn't have his max bet out indicating that the count was less than +5 which is the index for splitting 10s. Am I right, Amlee?
I use the TKO counting system (different count) but yeah, in any case, count wasn't high enough to split 10s. :)
Quote: GreenChipBaronDid you really get this much heat betting 2 spots of 75 at a 6 deck game after taking insurance? That seems really hard to believe, are you sure you aren't imagining the heat?
You should see the unspeakable things I've done to my local DD games with greens and nothing resembling that kind of heat.
GCB, awesome! I like unspeakable things and try to get away with them as much as I can.
That said, the pit boss was right next to me as soon as he saw me spread two @ $75. As I was cashing up, he walked back to the phones and was eye-ing down the table. Maybe he was just putting in the call to watch me. I have a feeling he would have booted me, had I stayed. It's hard to blend in sometimes when you're next to dudes flat-betting at $5 and playing $1 on the side bets.
I'm hours away from this place and will likely never ever go back, but didn't want to face any issues...especially in a tribal joint.
Quote: Amlee...especially in a tribal joint.
Yeah, that is probably a good idea even if you're playing smaller stakes.
p.s. Hourly EV of the game you posted (.639% HE) is approximately $9.25/hour (without mistakes). Is there any way you could spread 1-4 on a game with better rules (S17 LS)? If you could, then you could afford the same max bet and then change your hourly EV to approximately $13.68/hour. You'll get better comps and mailers, and have a small enough spread at a green chip table that you should keep your heat quite minimal as well...
Know thy numbers and max thy EV!
Quote: RomesYeah, that is probably a good idea even if you're playing smaller stakes.
p.s. Hourly EV of the game you posted (.639% HE) is approximately $9.25/hour (without mistakes). Is there any way you could spread 1-4 on a game with better rules (S17 LS)? If you could, then you could afford the same max bet and then change your hourly EV to approximately $13.68/hour. You'll get better comps and mailers, and have a small enough spread at a green chip table that you should keep your heat quite minimal as well...
Know thy numbers and max thy EV!
Romes, brilliant idea! I'd LOVE to play 25-100. But LS with S17? I haven't found such a game yet. Cache Creek in the Bay Area stays on 17. Pauma down in Temecula has LS. But both in the same game? I drool at the thought. Anyone have a location on such a game?...they've gotten be out there. I just haven't found it yet.
Quote: teddysYou must have been reading a different post, LOL.
Yeah, that's an odd response from Wiz. ?? He either didn't red the post correctly or maybe got a hold of some bad weed. :) Some of the desert, dried out crap weed (or so I've heard about). :/
Quote: AmleeRomes, brilliant idea! I'd LOVE to play 25-100. But LS with S17? I haven't found such a game yet. Cache Creek in the Bay Area stays on 17. Pauma down in Temecula has LS. But both in the same game? I drool at the thought. Anyone have a location on such a game?...they've gotten be out there. I just haven't found it yet.
The midwest... =p. Even so if you can just find a S17 game then I'd still imagine your hourly EV around $13/hour, a $4 boost (+comps +mailers) JUST for selecting a different game/spread (with the same max bet).
Note the spread used though:
TC < 1 = $25
TC = 1 = $50
TC = 2 = $75
TC >= 3 = $100
Even though TC +4 carries a higher player advantage, TC +3 is WAY more profitable since TC +3 occurs much more frequently than TC +4 (this is why it's good to know your frequencies too). Hence the big bet at TC +3 might make a bit more short term variance for you (meaning you might have to take more for your current trip than before), but you should be within your means if your bankroll could handle a $100 bet before too.
Quote: AmleeI'd LOVE to play 25-100. But LS with S17? . . . Anyone have a location on such a game?
Delaware, Pennsylvania, and (at least for now) Maryland.
Quote: AmleeInsurance is a house scam, except for...
All bets are a house scam. Except when they pay.
Quote: CallSaulDelaware, Pennsylvania, and (at least for now) Maryland.
Connecticut, Rhode Island. Eight and six deck S17. Road trip?
Quote: AmleeRomes, brilliant idea! I'd LOVE to play 25-100. But LS with S17? I haven't found such a game yet. Cache Creek in the Bay Area stays on 17. Pauma down in Temecula has LS. But both in the same game? I drool at the thought. Anyone have a location on such a game?...they've gotten be out there. I just haven't found it yet.
Upper Peninsula. DA2 LS DAS Split 3 times Aces get one card no RSA S17. All tribal if that matters...
Quote: gavUpper Peninsula. DA2 LS DAS Split 3 times Aces get one card no RSA S17. All tribal if that matters...
If it's the Kewadins, you can double on split aces.
Quote: WizardSorry for your losses. Insurance, like all side bets, is a sucker bet. Live and learn.
So you don't take insurance with a TC +3 or higher? Did I miss something here?
I believe he's just referring to it as a "side bet" for most people playing the game. In that light all side bets are sucker bets. Though, of course you take insurance at TC +3.Quote: ExcursionSo you don't take insurance with a TC +3 or higher? Did I miss something here?
