Percentage chance of win dependant of count ?

Just wondering if there's a site out there that shows the percentage chance of win depending on current count.

example : chance of a winning hand if count is +5 ....+10 ....+15 , etc. (using perfect strategy)

and also the chance depending on the current number of players at the table as well.

how much of a difference if it's 1 vs. dealer......vs 5 vs. dealer.

Well, I can easily provide you True Count 0 =P... because it's one of the Wizards Appendixes: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

From here you can see for TC = 0: Win = 42.42%, Push = 8.48%, and Loss = 49.09%.

The true counts do slightly up this, but I honestly can't tell you by how much. Do note though, when you're at like a +5 true count (max betting) you're not a huge favorite to win the hand. Most of the money being made from blackjack and big true counts comes from 4 things:
1) You get paid 3-2 on your blackjacks, the dealer does not.
2) You can put more money on the table by splitting your pairs, the dealer cannot.
3) You can put more money on the table by doubling down, the dealer cannot.
4) The dealer will bust more often.

When the TC is super high (+10 or so) the dealer is also more likely to get better hands (20's, blackjacks) but because of the 4 reasons above, that's where you can make your money betting larger.

didn't know things were so low...and those charts don't explain what i'm looking for.

surprised there aren't %'s anywhere. I'd really like to know how much more of a % were likely to win if were at +10. If it's just like 55%, that's pretty crappy.

Quote: john2010

didn't know things were so low...and those charts don't explain what i'm looking for.

surprised there aren't %'s anywhere. I'd really like to know how much more of a % were likely to win if were at +10. If it's just like 55%, that's pretty crappy.

It's not 55%.....oh if only it were.

Romes pretty much hit it on the head. Those win percentages only minimally change as the count improves. I don't think you are ever favored to win the hand, well maybe at some monstrously, ridiculous count where there is basically nothing but 10's and aces left, but otherwise you not favored to win the hand. What does improve is your chances to get a BJ, which comes with that 50% bonus (3-2) and your doubledowns/splits will do slightly better, but mostly it is just about a slightly higher frequency of blackjacks.

Players that are super familiar with the game, don't realize just what incredibly razor-thin margins you are dealing with in blackjack as far as counting and gaining an edge. And that's if you do everything right. :/

I appreciate that.

I'm just surprised people that Count, wouldn't take advantage of the system I mention in another thread. That if were at +10, it would be much better to surrender a 10 (dealer) 13 (player) ....than to hit. Knowing big cards are coming.

Quote: john2010

I appreciate that.

I'm just surprised people that Count, wouldn't take advantage of the system I mention in another thread. That if were at +10, it would be much better to surrender a 10 (dealer) 13 (player) ....than to hit. Knowing big cards are coming.

I'm certain there is an index for that play. Whether it's a TC of +10, that I don't know.

Many people don't understand how small of an advantage counting gives 1-2% overall, depending on the rules. Your unicorn situation is somewhere around 9% on a single situation.
Most advantage players look at counting with disdain and consider it a waste of time.
You truly have to enjoy it in order to pursue it.
The reality is you are doing well to capture 50 cents for every 100 dollars you put in the circle. That would be considered world class, especially today. What counting does, in my opinion, is give you sustainability and confidence to pursue other avenues. Especially early on in your advantage playing career, which is the point I am at. When I discovered the edges to be gained in side bets, and put some in practice, I quickly realized straight hi-lo counting with indexes is just not satisfying enough.

Quote: john2010

I appreciate that.

I'm just surprised people that Count, wouldn't take advantage of the system I mention in another thread. That if were at +10, it would be much better to surrender a 10 (dealer) 13 (player) ....than to hit. Knowing big cards are coming.

First I will 'quibble' with terminology. You never "know" a big card is coming...well unless you have seen the next card...lol. But with more high card remaining, the chances of a higher card coming improves a little.

But this is already figured into card counting. Part of card counting is learning the index plays, or just when it becomes profitable (EV-wise) to deviate from basic strategy.

In the case of surrender, and when to surrender more hands that you otherwise wouldn't, knowing these index numbers is quite valuable for a card counter, because most of the additional surrender plays that he/she will learn, other than the common, 16 and 15 vs dealer 10's and ace, will take place when the players has his larger wagers out, making proper surrender, many times more valuable than a regular player who is just playing the same amount every round.

Card counters seek out surrender games because the option is so valuable. Of course the casino's and casino personnel know this as well. :/

I looked hard for this information as well. The problem is that the percentages change due to indexes and wonging out, it gets very complex. The best i could find was a chart showing %EV per count, multiplied by %frequency of that true count for a net EV number.

Quote: john2010

Just wondering if there's a site out there that shows the percentage chance of win depending on current count.

there might be
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm
"There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true."

qfit has a lot of BJ info one can search thru including a free Book
(this has to piss off the other BJ book sellers i would guess)

https://www.qfit.com/book/index.htm

i enjoyed reading the book
just do not enjoy playing BJ in its current forms
good luck to you

Quote: surrender88s

I looked hard for this information as well. The problem is that the percentages change due to indexes and wonging out, it gets very complex. The best i could find was a chart showing %EV per count, multiplied by %frequency of that true count for a net EV number.

So you found my A-Z thread? =p... Yeah, I searched a while back for these numbers as well. As kewlj said, I don't think you're ever going to be the % favorite to win the hand (not referring to house edge). The best case scenario is all aces and 10's... the dealer is just as likely to get a blackjack as you are, otherwise you're pushing. In this case it's a 50/50 is it not?

thanks for the link, Sally. Amazing at the low percentage in that first image. (wowww) Almost makes me rethink the whole "card counters" make money thing. Their only really making money when like the other guy said...splitting / double'ing / bj's. etc.

Quote:

The reality is you are doing well to capture 50 cents for every 100 dollars you put in the circle. That would be considered world class, especially today.

quite a statement. and interesting at the same time.