Help Plan Blackjack trip

Hello guys my name is george from greece and im currently planning a trip to vegas this summer
its 2000$ hotel+air so ill add 500$ more for spending , and im left with 2500$ gambling money
how should i play trying to turn 2500$ into 5000$ to cover everything
if its for 5 days i divide 2500/5=500$ per day. i think im gonna play 300$ blackjack and 200$ craps
i know im gonna lose them but thats my goal
ive read craps books , blackjack books (also which count to learn these months? hi-lo , hi-opt1 or kiss?) and i think playing these 2 games is good
so my goal is to turn the days 500$ into 1000$
ill stick to downtown 10$min ...
any suggestions?
thanks

Quote: GeorgePane

Hello guys my name is george from greece and im currently planning a trip to vegas this summer
its 2000$ hotel+air so ill add 500$ more for spending , and im left with 2500$ gambling money
how should i play trying to turn 2500$ into 5000$ to cover everything
if its for 5 days i divide 2500/5=500$ per day. i think im gonna play 300$ blackjack and 200$ craps
i know im gonna lose them but thats my goal
ive read craps books , blackjack books (also which count to learn these months? hi-lo , hi-opt1 or kiss?) and i think playing these 2 games is good
so my goal is to turn the days 500$ into 1000$
ill stick to downtown 10$min ...
any suggestions?
thanks

Is your goal to make the $500/day last or to cover the cost of your trip through gambling.

If you just want to play, you want to place low variance bets and play optimal strategy. For blackjack that means use basic strategy outlined by the Wizard on his site.

For craps that means bet the pass line.



If your goal is to cover the cost of your trip, you should bet more aggressively to increase variance. I'd suggest craps exclusively for this since its much streakier than blackjack. This, of course, increases the risk of you busting out before your trip is over.

Hi George from Greece. If you are just trying to have fun, then $500 a day will go a long way in downtown. Can't guarantee that you will double your money though. Go to El Cortez. They have the best blackjack game in Vegas. Best chance of doubling your money. If you want a fancy place, go to Golden Nugget, they have good blackjack too, but avoid the 6:5 tables.

Now if you're trying to count cards, then making $500 a day is a lot. What is your bankroll? You are bringing $2500 to gamble with, which is a good trip bankroll, but is that your entire bankroll? If you have a $25,000 bankroll, then yea, you can probably make $500 in a day if you play a lot of hours. If your entire bankroll is $2500, then forget about it. Best you can do is play $5 tables. Now, you can get lucky and win that much. but don't be disappointed if it doesn't happen. also remember that you can get unlucky too. Are you okay with losing $1500? Anything can happen in the short run. Since it sounds like you have never counted cards before, I want you to make sure you know what you are getting yourself into. Sounds like you have a little more research to do before you can determine what you can realistically make in 5 days. Also, if you try to count cards, you might not want to do it at Cortez. As I said, they have the best game in Vegas, and therefore watch it like a hawk. I'm not gunna tell you the good places to count cards, you will need to discover then on your own

my goal is not to make 500$ a day , just to set as a win limit for not losing it back again
are offstrip, not well-known casinos good for counting? also why cant i turn 300$ into 600$ with counting in 10min?
well these are my trip savings but i dont care about losing it... or i can build the base of the bankroll by bringing 5000$ back
here we only have csm on every casino so i cant do it... only is bad as well
are 300$ enough for 5$-10$ min. ?
also which count to use of these 3 i mentioned?
thanks for the reply

i dont want to last a lot like 3 hours playing craps. 30 minutes are enough to win up to the win limit i set.
also should i consider visiting red rock for its 2 deck game?
any tips for the short run? heavy bets or max is not good at all haha

Well hello George, and welcome to the forums. I hope you have a great trip to Vegas! So, let's figure out what you're trying to do, and what your options are. I read your post as "How can I use my $2500 gambling funds to double it in 5 days, thus covering the $2500 cost of the trip?" Your goal is to make $500/day, but to be realistic you might make $1k one day, lose $1k another, etc. I wouldn't recommend using $500 as a "win goal" or a "stop loss." Well, maybe a stop loss if you're trying to at least play every day for some entertainment.

I'm going to look at just the blackjack aspect of it, to try to put some things in to perspective for you...

That being said, it's a fairly tall order to have an EV of $500 per day. You can certainly do this, especially counting cards, but my no means does this mean you'll make $500/day. This just means in the long run it'll average out to that... but you might in fact lose your shirt in the short term! The trouble is you're only playing for 5 days. Even if you play 8 hours a day, that's 40 hours on the trip, and assuming you try to find good rules/low number of player tables and get 80 hands per hour, this means you'll play ~3200 hands of blackjack on the trip.

If your average bet is $50, with an average of 1% advantage (standard over the long hull for counting), then your expectations could be estimated as follows:

Num Hands	Expected Value	Standard Deviation
1	.50	+-55
100	$50.00	+-550
1000	$500.00	+-1740
3000	$1,500.00	+-3012

For 1 hand, Standard Deviation (SD) = 1.1*AvgBet. Then for any number of hands it's Sqrt(NumHands)*SD.

From this we can already see that for your given trip, if you had an average bet of $50, which you 'could' do with a little higher ROR for your "trip bankroll" your expected value for the trip would be around $1500, PLUS OR MINUS ~$3,000!

The plus or minus is what's going to kill you. When you start getting in to the realm of 100,000 hands played then you essentially remove the variance and you should be left with a guaranteed profit. Since you're only playing over a 5 day stretch, you simply can't get enough hands in to "guarantee" anything. I would highly recommend learning to count, but I wouldn't recommend doing it "just for this trip." You'll find there's it's a lot more of a slow grind than some people originally think. According to these 'rough' numbers, you'd have a 16.5% chance of being down upwards of $1,500. This isn't even really considering your bankroll and ROR (which is already 'short' for this trip).

If you simply want to learn a lot of the basics to see for yourself, I suggest reading my A-Z Card Counting thread. But to summarize again, if you're just looking for the best way to double your money, craps is probably a good way to go, although I would suggest the Don't Pass =D... but they're relatively the same. In your case you want the variance, so you should play either side you want, but take MAX odds at all times. This should give you a pretty good shot at either making or losing a chunk of cash.

The chance of you doubling your money over the course of five days is highly unlikely. To make $500 last more than a couple hours a day you'll have to flat bet $10 blackjack or have maybe $50 on the table a roll, without much pressing.

Please just go into this with the understanding that you have a huge chance at losing. Spreading the bets across several days is just going to grind you down.

Aside from what I said, I wish you the best of luck. If you're going to win against the odds, my guess is craps is the game that will do it for you.

Lastly, watch out for 6:5 blackjack. Its f^&*ing everywhere now.

Quote: GeorgePane

my goal is not to make 500$ a day , just to set as a win limit for not losing it back again
are offstrip, not well-known casinos good for counting? also why cant i turn 300$ into 600$ with counting in 10min?
well these are my trip savings but i dont care about losing it... or i can build the base of the bankroll by bringing 5000$ back
here we only have csm on every casino so i cant do it... only is bad as well
are 300$ enough for 5$-10$ min. ?
also which count to use of these 3 i mentioned?
thanks for the reply

You can most definitely turn $300 into $600 in 10 minutes, thats variance. However in the next 10 minutes you may make $20, in the next 10 minutes you may lose $400, etc. when I talk about making $500 a day, I'm talking about making $500/day in the long run over many many days. One day I will make $1000, the next day I could lose $2000, the next day I make $400. I may never actually make $500 in a day, but if I average all the days over a year, I may see that it averages out to $500/day or close to it.

if you have a replenishable bankroll, meaning that you will bring $2500 with you to Vegas every year for the next 5 years, then you can pretend that you have $12,500 bankroll. However, if you lose everything on this trip, then your bankroll is only $10,000 now. You need to be honest with yourself with how much you are willing to gamble on blackjack. After you establish a number, you can then determine how much you can bet.

I've only been to casinos downtown and on the strip, so I don't know about the the other places, I heard they are good, but so are many on the strip and downtown. Some will say certain places on the strip suck, but I disagree. Sometime conditions change, sometimes you get a good a dealer who gives nice penetration. So you gotta explore on your own and take everyone's advice with grain of salt.

$300 should be enough for $5 and $10 single and double deck. But as I said, anything can happen. You can easily take the swings in $5 single deck, but $10 six deck might be asking for trouble. Of course, I hope you know that if you are counting a $5 single deck game, you only buy in with say $60. Keep the rest on your pocket. Only bring out that cash if you need it. No need to make the pit nervous seeing a well financed player.

Learn hi-lo. There are a lot of good resources, it's easy to learn, and good correlation

but strip doesnt have 5$ tables right? im only aiming for double deck yet
then what should my goal be? when should i leave the table , play craps with my 200$ and go for a show?
also if someone get backed off , do they let u cash out?
otherwise should i not play one day 300$ and keep it for a day to play 600$ ? does it make any difference?

Quote: GeorgePane

but strip doesnt have 5$ tables right? im only aiming for double deck yet
then what should my goal be? when should i leave the table , play craps with my 200$ and go for a show?
also if someone get backed off , do they let u cash out?
otherwise should i not play one day 300$ and keep it for a day to play 600$ ? does it make any difference?

Oh no... You won't find double deck on the strip for $5, less you wonder across some 6:5 game. Don't EVER play 6:5 blackjack, it quadruples the house edge.

If you want to stick to $5 double deck, you can go downtown (el cortez is downtown and has some of the best single and double deck games in Vegas), or off the strip. There a ton of places near the strip that you can even get free rides too. Sams town / east side cannery / long horn... There's a free shuttle that goes from Harrahs (center strip) to Sams town (the others are walking distance). If you're just looking for $5 dd, you won't find any playable games on the main strip.

then what would you guys do with that kind of bankroll?
whats the right time to quit a session?

Quote: GeorgePane

then what would you guys do with that kind of bankroll?
whats the right time to quit a session?

1. Play for enjoyment.
2. When you're not enjoying it.... Or when you are chasing losses.

Quote: GeorgePane

but strip doesnt have 5$ tables right? im only aiming for double deck yet
then what should my goal be? when should i leave the table , play craps with my 200$ and go for a show?
also if someone get backed off , do they let u cash out?
otherwise should i not play one day 300$ and keep it for a day to play 600$ ? does it make any difference?

Ok, so if your really set on counting cards, I would recommend playing only $5 tables, as you are suggesting. Your goal should be to count perfectly. If you lose count halfway through the shuffle, then you failed. Try again on the next shuffle. You also want to make sure you are sizing your bets correctly and using your index numbers too. Trust me, you are going to mess up when you first try counting in a live casino. So by the last day of the trip, you want to see if you are counting perfectly. That should be your goal. Don't worry if you lose or win $100 in a session. You should only stop when you want to. Stop if you are tired. Stop if you aren't having fun anymore. Stop if you are going to a show.

I guess if you really want a 'stop point', then your stop point is 45 minutes, okay? This is probably good for you. This will reduce the chance of being backed off. After 45 minutes, go to the next casino, or do something else in Vegas.

As far $300/day, you should be fine at the $5 level. What are the chances of losing 60 units (1 unit = $5) in a day? I'm not sure. It doesn't happen often. But it happened to me last Saturday, so it can happen. Hey, but you're just as likely to also win 60 units! (assuming that you're doing it correctly). Take your $300 on day 1, and whatever you win or lose from that, add it to your $300 on day 2 I would say.

you mean if i turn 300$ into 500$ , the next day i buy in for 500$? i know i should buyin with like 250$ again but why to rebuy if i lose the day's money?
also if i got 500$ a day should i hit 10$ mins?

It's all really about how you want to spend your money. If you lose $300 in a day, that may make you want to stop for the day. That's why I suggest $5 tables. When you're first starting out, $300 loss seems like a lot. I think you should be fine with lasting a few hours per day with $300 at the $5 tables. You can go to $10 Towards the end of the trip is you have money left over, or more money than you started with, and you feel confident.

Quote: GeorgePane

you mean if i turn 300$ into 500$ , the next day i buy in for 500$? i know i should buyin with like 250$ again but why to rebuy if i lose the day's money?
also if i got 500$ a day should i hit 10$ mins?

No... Just no. If you really don't want to heed all the warnings about the short term and you just want a projected EV of $500/day, here you go:

You can't play $5 or $10 tables and generate that kind of EV. I'm assuming you play 8 hours a day, with 80 hands per hour. You would need a 20-1 spread at the $10 DD table to get that kind of EV. You'll get tossed or shuffled on rather quickly the moment you go from $10 to $200. This was also considering a crazy ramp like $10, $40, $80, $120, $160, $200.

Play double deck $25 min tables... Spread $25-$300:



You'd also need to do the following:
1) Play absolutely perfect basic strategy.
2) Count perfectly, using I18 perfectly as well.
3) Strictly wong out at TC -2 or more.
4) Keep your sessions to about 30-45 minutes each, then hop to the next casino.
5) Play for an average of 8 hours per day, for all 5 days (you could play 10 hours 1 day, 6 the next, etc... you need to get 40 hours in your 5 days though).
6) Play at non crowded tables where you can get at least 80 hands per hour.
7) ...actually learn all of this in 3 months? Yeah, I'd check out the link to my A-Z thread, ASAP.

This would normally require a total bankroll of about $60,000. A "trip" bank roll could be okay at approximately $6,000 - $9,000 (20-30 big bets). You have $2500... So I hope you realize your RoR (chance of going completely broke losing your $2,500) is much greater than any serious counter would be willing to risk). You could get a huge count, put your $300 max bet out, split once, double twice, and lose half of your trip bank roll in 1 hand. This is much more common than you might believe. Of course you could win half your goal ($2500) in one hand too... Like I said before, it's just variance at this point.

thanks a lot
you information is highly appreciated
how can i calculate by myself how much money i gonna need for a trip ? (assume 5 hours per day 2 sessions 10 min)
also assume i visit vegas with 6000$ . i stay 5 days. i divide 6000/5 to play 1200$ per day? is that the 2 session buy in 1200$ / 2 =600$ to play ? or buy in less
how to calculate how much i need
with that kind of bankroll after your info i wouldnt play at all but i rarely visit vegas
and i dont want to spend 5-6 more years collecting 12000$ lol
thanks again everyone

last question how can i last 30-45 minutes each session spreading 25-300 with 500 bankroll? if count gets +3 im to bet 200 and probably lost or dealt AA , 88 and force to play next days bankroll (should i?)

George,
I know that you acknowlege that your bankroll can get wiped out, but I fear that deep down you are not expecting it to because of your (yet to be) new found counting skills.
Believe that the edge of a highly skilled and top class counter is still next to negligible. You have a huge probability of disappointment and empty pockets. Maybe you have not read about going on tilt and I'm convinced you haven't experienced it. Also, playing great, you can still get a gut wrenching hand that doubles and splits all your bankroll in a blink. Do that early in your trip and then what will you do. What will you do if you have a winning streak on day one and double your trip bankroll? would you spend the rest of the week giving it back? Or spend it on fine food, wine women and song. Maybe spend your br that way instead?
By all means use counting to enhance your game and use bankroll management to extend your playing time... but treat it as entertainment. With great spread comes great volatility and that volatility makes whatever advantage that you can manage into a drop in the ocean. With perfect BS and playing 2% of your day's br per hand you can last many hours and get a real feel for the atmosphere and emotions of winning and losing. P155 your trip BR away on day one and you'll have a miserable trip.

Quote: GeorgePane

...lso why cant i turn 300$ into 600$ with counting in 10min?

You can turn $300 into $600 in one hand in ten seconds. Indeed your chances are pretty good at near 50%, but counting will have absolutely nothing to do with it. Counting and counting and counting, it will probably be about 1 shoe in 6 where you even get a hint that you have an advantage. Will you be playing in that time or sat on your hands?

Go to Vegas for pleasure. Enjoy it. Little need to win or lose $1 to do that.
Losing $xxxx on day one would be horrible.

My advice? Spend the $2500 on Hookers and Blow, then you will have a trip to remember. And if you really think you want to gamble, only spend $2000 on the previous and gamble the $500 at $100 a day. Either way, ENJOY yourself and don't worry about the rest. You are coming to one of the greatest places on earth.....have fun!

Quote: GeorgePane

Hello guys my name is george from greece and im currently planning a trip to vegas this summer
its 2000$ hotel+air so ill add 500$ more for spending , and im left with 2500$ gambling money
how should i play trying to turn 2500$ into 5000$ to cover everything
if its for 5 days i divide 2500/5=500$ per day. i think im gonna play 300$ blackjack and 200$ craps
i know im gonna lose them but thats my goal
ive read craps books , blackjack books (also which count to learn these months? hi-lo , hi-opt1 or kiss?) and i think playing these 2 games is good
so my goal is to turn the days 500$ into 1000$
ill stick to downtown 10$min ...
any suggestions?
thanks

You must be the richest man in Greece!

Quote: Boz

My advice? Spend the $2500 on Hookers and Blow...

Probably the best advice anyone could give a gambler who's probably going to lose a couple grand anyways lol. My friends and I used to joke about stuff like that when we took big swings playing poker winning or losing a couple grand in a night. "Dude you know what you could have done with that money you just lost? You could have flown to Vegas, bought two of the hottest hookers available, done coke off their ass having an all night 3 way, and then come back and still had another grand in your pocket"

...After a big loss you start to understand how 'rich' people can just blow thousands on dumb stuff. Perhaps they're smart enough to know they're going to lose it anyways, so might as well enjoy parting with it?

Quote: Romes

"Dude you know what you could have done with that money you just lost? You could have flown to Vegas, bought two of the hottest hookers available, done coke off their ass having an all night 3 way, and then come back and still had another grand in your pocket"

Nice one Romes. We should actually use this on official gambling warning cards in casinos instead of the boring old 'Gamble Responsibly' and 'Know Your Limits'.

Quote: Uranium235

Nice one Romes. We should actually use this on official gambling warning cards in casinos instead of the boring old 'Gamble Responsibly' and 'Know Your Limits'.

I agree. Needs graphics, though. :>

i made a modification
what do you think?
still different results