kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 16th, 2015 at 1:00:21 PM permalink
let's say for some reason I want to bet all of my money at once, and I know I have an advantage. what advantage do I loose then if I can't split/double?
arcticfun
• Posts: 175
Joined: Oct 2, 2013
February 16th, 2015 at 1:14:37 PM permalink
Even at a TC of +3, the probability of winning a hand is less than 50%. The edge over the house comes from splitting, doubling, and blackjacks. So, in every way, it is a bad play. When on tilt and you absolutely can't stop yourself from betting, bet at most 1/3 of what you have left. That allows for one split and one double.
ahiromu
• Posts: 2107
Joined: Jan 15, 2010
February 16th, 2015 at 1:18:36 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/

Play may not double nor split: -1.91%. It isn't that bad, but you should always have the cash to double or split if necessary.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Romes
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February 16th, 2015 at 1:27:50 PM permalink
Quote: kimura

let's say for some reason I want to bet all of my money at once, and I know I have an advantage. what advantage do I loose then if I can't split/double?

As others have stated, you should never be betting everything on one hand. Some say bet half, leaving a split or double, but I agree with articfun... 1/3rd. This leaves a split and a double. The most painful thing to do as a counter is to walk away from a positive count, or not be able to split/double because you don't have any more money. If you plan and prepare properly, this should pretty much never happen.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.
ahiromu
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Joined: Jan 15, 2010
February 16th, 2015 at 1:31:41 PM permalink
Just have the cash to double or split (that you're willing to part with). It isn't necessary to have the chips in front of you.

If you aren't ready to double or split a hand in blackjack you are playing an extremely stupid hand. I've done it before, I'm not saying you're a stupid person if you do it, I'm saying it's a stupid and avoidable mistake.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 16th, 2015 at 2:00:42 PM permalink
Thks Romes and everybody else for your answers. No in fact I'm more of an expert in card counting if you like, know all the indexes and basic strategy I know it better than my english and apply it 100% of the time unless I'm on the index numbers. So I know when I have an advantage, but it doesn't mean that I have an overall advantage. The piece of the puzzle I miss is self control lol so that's everything. I will always apply basic strategy but I may be betting too much at a low count. That's why I am going see this problem with a gambling addiction expert to see if I have a hope in enjoying advantage play one day or if my only choice is simply quitting altogether.

Ok, let's suppose the count is +6, so if I bet half of my bankroll, let's say 200 dollars, than I have a 3% advantage on 200, that is on average 6 dollars in the long run. If I bet 400, all of my money, than I will have 1.1% advantage so yeah doesn't seem a good idea.
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 16th, 2015 at 2:20:03 PM permalink
Quote: kimura

Thks Romes and everybody else for your answers. No in fact I'm more of an expert in card counting if you like, know all the indexes and basic strategy I know it better than my english and apply it 100% of the time unless I'm on the index numbers. So I know when I have an advantage, but it doesn't mean that I have an overall advantage. The piece of the puzzle I miss is self control lol so that's everything. I will always apply basic strategy but I may be betting too much at a low count. That's why I am going see this problem with a gambling addiction expert to see if I have a hope in enjoying advantage play one day or if my only choice is simply quitting altogether.

Ok, let's suppose the count is +6, so if I bet half of my bankroll, let's say 200 dollars, than I have a 3% advantage on 200, that is on average 6 dollars in the long run. If I bet 400, all of my money, than I will have 1.1% advantage so yeah doesn't seem a good idea.

There's a lot that's concerning here... I'm glad you're seeking help since you admittedly have self control issues. It's the least AP play you can do to bet what you can't afford to lose. I hope you indeed shy away from the tables while you sort this issue out as well.

After that, I'm a bit concerned you think you're a skilled counter, when it doesn't appear as though you have all of your numbers together. Given a list of rules for a game, can you provide me with: true count frequencies, bet spread, gain per hand, total gain, average bet, and long run per hour average? In my opinion, these are nonnegotiable numbers that must be easily provided and completely understood before sitting down at any game. Heck, even when I play craps I can provide you with all of the above similar information.

Next, and one of the most important/forgotten items for any AP is bankroll management. You should never find yourself in a situation where you'd have to ask the above question. With proper bankroll management and planning you should realistically almost never be put in this situation. I really hope when you say "bet half of my bankroll" up top, you were referring to your "trip" or "session" bankroll. It often amazes people that to play a \$5 game properly, you need a \$10,000 bankroll. This can often be derived from your desired betting spread (again another reason why you need to know your spread, average bet, etc, etc).

Lastly, at what game when the TC = +6 do you have a 3% advantage? That would mean there's a 0% house edge off the top, which is almost never the case. Most common rules allot for a .35%-.66% house edge off the top, completely eradicating the advantage one would get from a TC +1. Thus, at TC +6, you'd be more like a 2.5% advantage. This is all explained in my thread, how to calculate each and every one of these numbers, etc.

We all do it. I was guilty of it when I started. Don't "think" you have a winning game, know you have a winning game. Best of luck to you with your addiction; I hope you find the answers you need.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dieter
• Posts: 5609
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 16th, 2015 at 5:22:11 PM permalink
Quote: kimura

The piece of the puzzle I miss is self control lol

Self control is the most important part.
May the cards fall in your favor.
kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 18th, 2015 at 2:05:58 AM permalink
Romes:
I know all the answers but the true count frequencies. On this point you are completely wrong I know when I have an advantage. And saying I am an expert in card counting doesn't mean I am a professional (lacking bankroll, time, and self control). I know most of the time I walk away from those tables what advantage I had on my big bets. My bet spread is 1-100 and I don't have to stick to your rules of bet spreads. I just have to bet big when I have an advantage. The very few times I don't know what advantage I had are the times when I lose control and that's enough to lose all the edge for me.

As for my question here it doesn't concern betting all the money when card counting but another situation that I do not want to expose here.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22293
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
February 18th, 2015 at 3:12:05 AM permalink
Obviously you would bet a match play even if you didn't have enough money to double.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 18th, 2015 at 7:01:49 AM permalink
Quote: kimura

Romes:
I know all the answers but the true count frequencies. On this point you are completely wrong I know when I have an advantage. And saying I am an expert in card counting doesn't mean I am a professional (lacking bankroll, time, and self control). I know most of the time I walk away from those tables what advantage I had on my big bets. My bet spread is 1-100 and I don't have to stick to your rules of bet spreads. I just have to bet big when I have an advantage. The very few times I don't know what advantage I had are the times when I lose control and that's enough to lose all the edge for me.

As for my question here it doesn't concern betting all the money when card counting but another situation that I do not want to expose here.

kimura, I'm just trying to help. We all made the same mistakes early on and I'm just passing along information that I learned the hard way, eventually. Being able to count cards doesn't make you an expert in counting. ALL of the info I questioned you about above makes you a great counter. I am not a professional counter. I am a software developer who plays blackjack part time, but I wanted to learn the game properly.

Do you know what kelly is? It's a unit of measurement that tells you what you should bet with a certain advantage (and is also listed/discussed in my thread). It's a mathematical certainty that if you bet more than double kelly you'll go bust. You can't claim to be an expert if you're setting yourself up to bust. Simply knowing the TC is +3 and betting 'more' doesn't mean you know what you're doing, nor that you'll win money in the long run. You need to know the TC frequencies for SD, DD, 6D... you need to be able to calculate house edges on the fly given any rule set. You need to be able to apply 'your' bet spread to these frequencies/counts to find your gain per hand, to be able to calculate your EV properly. This way before you even go play at a game you can say "In the long run, if I played this game for 1,000 hours, I should expect to make \$X." Again, simply saying "oh I think the count is high, bet more and it'll all work out!" is not a sign that anyone is an expert in counting.

All of this doesn't even mention one of the most important topics, that you yourself say you struggle with... bankroll management. If you don't know your kelly, spread, big bet, etc, then you can't properly build a bankroll that can sustain the ups and downs that are natural in the game. Just because we count doesn't mean we'll win every time. Bankroll management and self control are the top 2 reasons why any of us might go bust. I believe in order for anyone to consider themselves a counter they should be able to answer all of the questions above, put a proper bankroll together, understand standard deviations/ev/etc, etc, etc. I doubt I'm the only one with this opinion, but alas, I'm just giving my opinion.

I truly hope the best for you. I just don't want to see another 'counter' that thinks he's going to take money from the casinos, but purely because of his bankroll management he's guaranteed to give them all of his money. These are the 'counters' that casinos love. What's better for the house than someone whom thinks they're going to win, but mathematically can't? Please at least check out my thread and feel free to ask any questions you may have.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 18th, 2015 at 3:01:10 PM permalink
you could also be a gambler who bets more money when the count is positive and knows he's playing with advantage. I know what the kelly is, but the decision you make to take more risk is up to you. If you have some few extra money and you are able to play with them with an advantage, it's something good.
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 6:35:29 AM permalink
Quote: kimura

you could also be a gambler who bets more money when the count is positive and knows he's playing with advantage. I know what the kelly is, but the decision you make to take more risk is up to you. If you have some few extra money and you are able to play with them with an advantage, it's something good.

This was my point. No, it's not "better" to just "bet more" money in a positive count. That does not make it advantageous. Kelly dictates that if you bet more than 2xKelly you will go bust because of the variance you bring to your bankroll. It's a mathematical certainty that you will go bust, not a guess. Thus, it is NOT always better to bet more just because you have a positive count.

Example:
Say you have \$1,000... and you put a 1-10 spread together for a \$5-\$50 game. You decide that you're going to play with a theoretical replenishable bankroll of \$10,000. This means if you lose that \$1,000, you'll get another \$1,000 next month (or whenever) and keep doing that if you must up to \$10k. Great, that's 200 big bets and you should have a really low Risk of Ruin (ROR). So let's say you're a part time gambler and one month at your day to day job you get a big \$2,000 bonus! What you're saying is it's "okay" to then make your spread \$10-200, because hey, I can bet more when the count is high! WRONG... Betting \$200 here compromises your theoretical bankroll and raises your ROR up an enormous amount! This drags your bankroll down to a measly 50 big bets... At this rate, it's almost certain that you're going to go bust (i.e. lose not just \$2,000... but ALL \$10,000 of your bankroll)!

It's not okay to just "bet more" in positive counts. You must define a spread (that you can get away with), an average/big bet, and a bankroll that can sustain them. I fear that most people whom take the approach "well the count is high I can bet more" are quite often the suckers casinos love... because at that point it's just a waiting game until you go bust and they have all of your money. I'm sorry, but it doesn't sound like you know when you have the true advantage =/. Card counting alone doesn't tell you that.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 8:14:25 AM permalink
I disagree. The risk is up to you to decide, given of course you know what's the risk you're taking. If you have an advantage and bet more, willing to take a lot of risk, then you still have an advantage. The only thing that's needed to play with an advantage is to bet no more than half of your money on a TC>=2. Risk is another story.
Now with 10 000 bankroll betting 500 dollars a hand on high counts you have to agree that you have more than 50% chance at one point to be at 20 000 bankroll than busting. Betting 50 max on high counts you may have more than 95% chance of doubling your bankroll before busting. Much less risk. Ok. Though I may choose the higher risk option, and in both cases I would be playing with advantage.
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 8:38:33 AM permalink
Quote: kimura

I disagree. The risk is up to you to decide, given of course you know what's the risk you're taking. If you have an advantage and bet more, willing to take a lot of risk, then you still have an advantage. The only thing that's needed to play with an advantage is to bet no more than half of your money on a TC>=2. Risk is another story.
Now with 10 000 bankroll betting 500 dollars a hand on high counts you have to agree that you have more than 50% chance at one point to be at 20 000 bankroll than busting. Betting 50 max on high counts you may have more than 95% chance of doubling your bankroll before busting. Much less risk. Ok. Though I may choose the higher risk option, and in both cases I would be playing with advantage.

I hope you realize you're not disagreeing with me, you're disagreeing with well known/defined mathematics founded by mathematicians. With a \$10,000 bankroll and \$500 max bets, you aren't "more than 50% chance to be at \$20,000." You only have 20 big bets, and your Risk of Ruin (chance of being at \$0) goes way, way up. It is a completely unsustainable strategy that will, with 100% certainty, result in the bankroll going to \$0 because you're over betting and won't be able to withstand the variance swings. You'd need a bankroll of \$50,000 - \$100,000 (100-200 max bets) to withstand the swings you're going to get with such a large max bet.

The only way a strategy such as this would make money, would be on one particular night/session/trip... Which shows if you happen to win when doing it, it's just luck, because it isn't something viable for "the long run." If you had this strategy and tried to play it year round, I guarantee with mathematical certainty you lose.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
kimura
• Posts: 30
Joined: Jul 3, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 9:00:42 AM permalink
let somebody else or the wizard come give his opinion. Yes your overall risk of ruin is high but it doesn't mean you haven't less than 50% chance of busting before going to 20 000 with 500 max bet. Either you don't understand me or you've got the wrong definition of "playing with advantage". I am quite sure about what I am saying and it's in accordance with all the mathematicians who worked on this question.
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 10:16:44 AM permalink
Quote: kimura

let somebody else or the wizard come give his opinion. Yes your overall risk of ruin is high but it doesn't mean you haven't less than 50% chance of busting before going to 20 000 with 500 max bet. Either you don't understand me or you've got the wrong definition of "playing with advantage". I am quite sure about what I am saying and it's in accordance with all the mathematicians who worked on this question.

I greatly invite others opinions on the matter. The only time you to decide to take 'more' risk for 'more' EV is going from 0 to double kelly, that's the range. Past that, it's a 100% accepted fact on the forums (and mathematically proven) that it will lead to a bankroll going bust.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dieter
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Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 11:04:17 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

EV is going from 0 to double kelly, that's the range. Past that, it's a 100% accepted fact on the forums (and mathematically proven) that it will lead to a bankroll going bust.

That's not entirely accurate.

In the long run, with wins/losses that approximate the anticipated win/loss frequency, yes, you are likely to go broke by exceeding double Kelly.

If you don't ever lose, you won't. Of course, any system works great if you don't ever lose.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Romes
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Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 11:07:10 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

That's not entirely accurate.

In the long run, with wins/losses that approximate the anticipated win/loss frequency, yes, you are likely to go broke by exceeding double Kelly.

If you don't ever lose, you won't. Of course, any system works great if you don't ever lose.

So basically you're saying, if you get lucky, you're lucky...? =)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dalex64
• Posts: 1067
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
February 19th, 2015 at 3:31:05 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

That's not entirely accurate.

In the long run, with wins/losses that approximate the anticipated win/loss frequency, yes, you are likely to go broke by exceeding double Kelly.

If you don't ever lose, you won't. Of course, any system works great if you don't ever lose.

I'll add my agreement to this, not that the OP will care.

I think I recall someone saying that you don't win more often when the count is high, but when you do win, you win more money on average.

The Kelly Criterion is established and well respected by many gamblers. Its principles are grounded in solid mathematics.
RS
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Joined: Feb 11, 2014
February 19th, 2015 at 4:01:40 PM permalink
Even if you bet 1/4 Kelly, you will eventually bust your bankroll.

Playing \$500 big bets with a \$20k roll is without a doubt advantage play, but with a big risk. But the risk isn't as large as you may think.
Dieter
• Posts: 5609
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 20th, 2015 at 7:06:38 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

So basically you're saying, if you get lucky, you're lucky...? =)

Isn't that why we're up all night? ;)

From what I remember of my brief study of the Kelly criterion, if you know you can't lose, the optimal bet is 100% of what you can get your hands on.

It's slightly different with blackjack, since the optimal play might be to split. Holding enough in reserve to split is recommended.

If you're all in, it doesn't matter if you hit or double.
May the cards fall in your favor.
thecesspit
• Posts: 5936
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
February 20th, 2015 at 7:29:59 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Even if you bet 1/4 Kelly, you will eventually bust your bankroll.

Not if you have an advantage.

For two reasons... one if playing a true 1/4 Kelly you never bet your whole bank roll, so you get smaller and smaller bets, which may not be physically possible to make.

Secondly, as I recall the risk of ruin is over all time, not just before hitting a certain target. As infinities are involved it gets complicated....
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Dalex64