I literally just got off the phone with a host from the Monte Carlo, I told him when I was coming to stay & that I was planning on playing a lot of $50 min blackjack in their high roller room while I am there & I asked him 'How much does your resort typically comp for playing this particular game?'. He told me they have several different ways of comping players & he said I could expect to be comped in the range of $125 to $150 per 4 or 5 hours of play. I also asked him if it would be possible to put these comps towards the cost of my room when I leave & he said 'Absolutely. We will keep track of all your playing time while your playing here & if you want us to cover your room we can do that.' Seemed like a really nice guy, I certainly hope he was honest about the amount they comp their players.
This is part of the hustle =p. Were you set on staying there? I'd call a few places (different property owners) and ask the same questions. Did you ask about wiring money upfront and if that would make a difference? Maybe ask about blacks (since you could still spread 1-2 and make money while giving you that 'black' status. If you told him $50 table, then he's going to take your base bet as $50 for quoting you over the phone... Which would indicate 20% of TL... btw ;)
I doubt he wasn't honest... Hosts can definitely hook a player up. If you're worried at all just say "Hey this sounds great, can you e-mail it to me so I can review it?" Then you'll have his direct contact info (great for on the spot comps/etc after you give some play and they get a feel for you as a player - money wise) and a record of what you were quoted.
So I have decided I am going to go with the 'safe' option & play black action only ($100 min) 1-3 spread. Im going to let my host at the resort know that I will be playing black action only so I can get the most comps possible on my trip (& hopefully have no trouble with heat). It will be making less money (around $50 per 100 hands) but im thinking it will benefit me better overall because I can virtually play as long as I want without worry & most likely have my trip comped fully. I am going to bring $10K for this trip & my spread will be the following: TC+4 or lower - $100. TC+5 - $200. TC+10 - $300. With a $10K trip bankroll, anyone want to take a shot at what my ROR will be? (I could take $15K but I really would rather not)
That's a very weak spread that might hurt your EV a lot. As mentioned before (and for the same reasons) I would at least up your bet to $200 at TC +3. There's so many more benefits. If you're worried about heat, up to $300 at TC +6, which you shouldn't see all that often on your stay.
I'd still be hesitant to "camp out." At the black action tables you will have your play evaluated, so even spreading small if someone see's you have a +EV game, they will still ask you to stop playing, and may take all of your comps away. Put some hours in here and there, but look to play at other places near by (that are different properties). If you're in the HL room you should be finding good games <= .3% HE.
Personally I would run the following spread: TC < +2 = $100. TC +2 = $200, TC +6 = $300. That way you're getting that extra EV and for the most part it will appear you have a 1-2 spread. I'll run some numbers on the two tomorrow to see if there's a big difference in EV, which compared to the spread you posted above, I bet there will be slightly significant difference.
I understand it's your trip, your money, and you can do as you want, just throwing my 2 cents in to the mix =). Good luck either way and I hope you have a profitable trip, but more importantly a really fun and great experience!
I just ran a sim with the same system/game raising to $200 at TC+3 & $300 at TC+6 (60% pen). The result was a little over $100 EV. Thats double the EV of raising at TC+5 /+10. Once again Romes, you are 100% correct lol. That kind of EV is just too much to turn down, I think I will use that spread although I will be extremely disappointed if I get backed off & my comps taken from me. I guess it will serve me best to separate my play between a few different places (I will be staying on the strip so why not). At this bet spread, do you think $10K would be enough (for this trip)?
25-30 BB for a "trip" BR is decently okay. Seeing as your BB is $300 (even though at TC +6 you might not have it out all that often) $10k would afford you 33.33 big bets. I think that should be enough for your trip.
Glad you simmed the numbers to check them! Now you can do the same if you come across any other game and want to play it =)
I would suggest using some cover when playing blacks. Maybe bump your bet to $200 when a count goes to TC -1 every now and then to throw anyone checking your play off... Things of that nature.