blackjack basic strategy. progression/money management question
I recently played some blackjack with basic strategy and did quite well
I have a question regarding WHY a progression in money management wont work
the Wizard says blackjack basic strategy lowers house edge to .5% and with ties excluded you will on average win 46 out of 100 bets i believe
so if this is true then wouldn't a negative progression be well suited?
just curious
Quote: richbailey86
the Wizard says blackjack basic strategy lowers house edge to .5% and with ties excluded you will on average win 46 out of 100 bets i believe
so if this is true then wouldn't a negative progression be well suited?
What about that statement makes you think a negative progression is well suited? The progression changes the wager from hand to hand. Nothing about what "the Wizard says" has anything to do with odds of success changing from hand to hand.
So the short answer to your question is table limits. At a $10 minimum table, after 9 losses, you are putting out $5120, which is likely more than table max and THAT just to hope to win $10 in the cycle. Lol. The game of blackjack with 3-2 payouts and double downs and splits, and surrender (1/2 bet loss) isn't the best suited game for a progression to begin with.
Quote: richbailey86I have a question regarding WHY a progression in money management wont work
When would you increase the bet? When would you decrease the bet?
Winning or losing a hand isn't an effective predictor of your likelihood to win the next hand.
10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160 + 320 + 640 = $1270. Is it that hard to lose 7 hands in a row? It's happened to me before. Can you really afford to make a $1280 bet after losing $1270? What happens if you lose that too?
I know you're thinking right now that this will never happen to you. That's how everyone thinks. I had the same feeling too when I first played blackjack. I was extremely lucky, and walked away with $500. I started with $5 bets and was making $50 bets by the end of the night. I thought, 'Gee, I won all this money, there is no way I could possibly lose it'. Well guess what, over a two week period I went onto lose the $500 with another $2000 on top of that. So yes, losing is very possible. Do not think it cannot happen to you. I know you probably feel good about your first win, but please, take it in stride.
Quote: AvincowIs it that hard to lose 7 hands in a row?
lol this is usually how I start a session... Recent trip 3 weeks ago I started losing 10 in a row, hopped tables, 13 in a row, hopped tables, 7 in a row. I'd like to know the odds of just that happening =p. So here's what would happen if I was progressive betting:
Pretty sure the table max was 2,000... so by the time I got my first win (11th hand, 14th hand, and 8th hand) I would still be down:
1) 10+20+40+80+160+320+640+1280+2000+2000 - 2000 (first win) = -4550 loss.
2) 10+20+40+80+160+320+640+1280+2000+2000+2000+2000+2000 - 2000 (first win) = -10,550 loss.
3) 10+20+40+80+160+320+640 - 1280 (first win) = +10 win.
For a NET LOSS of $15,090. This will by far outweigh all the times it "works" and you win a few hundred.
...this is also assuming I have 10-20k on me playing $10 tables and I continue to just keep swinging for table max.
As others have said, the current hand will not predict the next hand, so you have no way of telling if you should increase, or decrease your bet based off of that information. You're just guessing, not taking advantage of any statistical data.
Quote: dwmIf you want progressions, a positive progression is much better. Up your bets on wins. Play double deck with good rules, start at table mininum, and up one unit on wins and then start anew again after each shuffle. You may just win a session or two.
Better, perhaps, because you're upping your bet with winnings and not table max betting when you lose a few in a row... However still a losing "betting system" as the only way to actually win money is to win a streak in a row, which doesn't happen all that often as well.
Most 'progressive' players play this way, upping a unit when they win. Yes, it isn't as volatile, but to repeat please note it is also a losing 'system' because it assumes winning a hand means you'll win the next hand (so bet more). It falls prey to the same fact that this hand has nothing to do with next hand (in a non-counting world).
This is NOT a winning system, just a betting scheme that relieves the boredom of flat betting, and it works when it works. I have shown a good net win over 60 day sessions thusfar.
Quote: dwmI do not regress after a loss, simply upping one unit on each win and stop at doubling my starting bet. Example: $10 initial bet, win a hand so $15 next bet, lose so next bet remains at $15, win hand so next bet goes to $20. Lose next hand, bet remains at $20, bet remains at $20 on each hand for this shoe since this is double my starting bet for this shoe. After the next shuffle, then start anew with $10 bet with same scheme.
This is NOT a winning system, just a betting scheme that relieves the boredom of flat betting, and it works when it works. I have shown a good net win over 60 day sessions thusfar.
Well first, your unit would be $5 then, if you're "upping a unit" from $10, to $15 (even though your starting bet is $10 - 2 units). Next, wouldn't you pretty much just be flat betting $20 the entire shoe? From the moment you get 2 wins on, you're at $20 win or lose for the rest of the shoe, correct?
I'd at least do a regular progression where you drop to your base bet and build up by $5 units =P. This actually would lose less in the long run because it would keep you from "max betting" your $20 after 2 wins for the rest of the shoe.
you lost 30 in a row?Quote: Romeslol this is usually how I start a session... Recent trip 3 weeks ago I started losing 10 in a row, hopped tables, 13 in a row, hopped tables, 7 in a row. I'd like to know the odds of just that happening =p. So here's what would happen if I was progressive betting:
I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.
Quote: AxelWolfyou lost 30 in a row?
I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.
At separate tables, but yes... With my love of mathematics it drives me crazy to actually see it happen to me, but at the same time all I'm thinking is "Wow what positive EV/CE am I building!" =p
Quote: AxelWolfyou lost 30 in a row?
I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.
At separate tables, but yes... With my love of mathematics it drives me crazy to actually see it happen to me, but at the same time all I'm thinking is "Wow what positive EV/CE am I building!" =p
Others probably have had 'somewhat' similar losses... but as kewlj said, usually you don't take notice with all the other stuff going on. I don't know why I counted that particular night. Probably because I just started and hadn't won a hand yet, so I wanted to see how many it was before I won one.
Quote: dwmIf you want progressions, a positive progression is much better. Up your bets on wins. Play double deck with good rules, start at table mininum, and up one unit on wins and then start anew again after each shuffle. You may just win a session or two.
I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.
Quote: kitties666I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.
Wait, so are you counting? I never quite understood why someone would put so much work in to a bankroll, worry about attention from floor managers, and progression betting while not putting in the same time (or less) to just learn to count and actually play a winning game..
If you are counting - You need to spread more. You're playing (if you're lucky) a break even game.
If you're not counting - Why are you worried about heat, etc? You're not playing a winning game, and upon examination they'll know that and WANT you to play.
Quote: kitties666I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.
I've never played Mohegan so can't speak to the specific conditions there. However...if you are only buying in for 400 at a time and only spreading 1-4 units, there is virtually zero chance they are paying any attention to you as a possible counter. For what it's worth for new counters(which I sense the OP is)...worry less about heat and more about making sure your game is tight. You can't afford mistakes. You aren't hurting the casino much, if at all, with a 1-4 spread at a $25 table. They will let you play that game all day. It's probably only break even at best. So enjoy yourself and blend in. Additionally sometimes buying in 3 or 4 times gets more attention than 1 larger buy in, but that varies house to house I guess.
Quote: vendman1I've never played Mohegan so can't speak to the specific conditions there. However...if you are only buying in for 400 at a time and only spreading 1-4 units, there is virtually zero chance they are paying any attention to you as a possible counter. For what it's worth for new counters(which I sense the OP is)...worry less about heat and more about making sure your game is tight. You can't afford mistakes. You aren't hurting the casino much, if at all, with a 1-4 spread at a $25 table. They will let you play that game all day. It's probably only break even at best. So enjoy yourself and blend in. Additionally sometimes buying in 3 or 4 times gets more attention than 1 larger buy in, but that varies house to house I guess.
Mohegan Sun has the same rules as the best Vegas Strip games minus RSA so you're looking at a house edge of 0.35%. Very playable rules so what's the problem? The same as it's been since 1996. Penetration. At an average of 66% it quickly kills things. Due diligence is imperative to find the very few dealers who are more generous. A pain in the neck for regular players and a daunting task at best for the casual visitor.
For someone already at green chip minimum bets, I suggest trying to build more bankroll and getting over to Foxwoods' Newport Room or the Fox Tower high limit room. The same rules apply with two minor exceptions. There is no unlimited pair splitting and 10s may be split once. These rooms almost always have $50 minimums although the room in the Fox Tower is not open weekday mornings. Fox Tower is what the former MGM Grand is now called.
I know it's a leap and I know it's not easy but you will be rewarded with penetration in the 83% to 85% range. A simulation of both penetration levels may surprise. I won't say that the room is heat free but at a 1-4 spread there's plenty of opportunities for creativity.
This is from a card counting perspective. I'm not sure where that leaves kitties.
I do realize the break-evenness of my current game. I've been winning predictably (I am also lucky, which is another reason I play). I'm saving the larger spreads fo Vegas & San Diego. I like that DD game at Barona.
Quote: kitties666I count. I think I do well at not looking like I'm counting, but the $50 & $100 pits seem to be extra attentive to me (& in general?), especially during slow times. I just feel like if I throw down $800 cash at the table it could be a little hot (suppose I could just buy chips at the window too). One experience over a year ago at a $50 pit left me feeling like I was being straight up watched...I wasn't even counting in that particular sitting & had a pit boss & floor manager hovering on my table & politely conversating with me. Perhaps i read too deep into it, but it didn't feel natural. I had another experience at Turning Stone where they almost backed me off of a 6D/H17 game with $15 minimums & unfavorable odds...
I do realize the break-evenness of my current game. I've been winning predictably (I am also lucky, which is another reason I play). I'm saving the larger spreads fo Vegas & San Diego. I like that DD game at Barona.
Of course the higher limit pits are 'generally' more watched, but that doesn't mean you're always being watched. Counters can often be paranoid that every little thing in a pit is about them (which sometimes it is, but sometimes it isn't). So what if you get watched/the boot? Are you playing in a city where you have numerous shops, or is this a "home" casino and you don't have a lot of other options? If you do have a lot of options, who cares... Don't treat a back off as something you fear, it for the most part lets you know you were doing something right. They should fear you, not the other way around. They can't do anything to you other than ask you to leave, and if they do, video it with your phone and sue them for tons. Half the reason the pit probably sweats you is because I bet you look nervous as hell.
You must not count too often. I physically can't sit at a blackjack table and not count. It's just too easy and second nature, the same as sitting at the table and breathing. The floor and pit coming over to talk to you is a completely normal thing. They want to glad hand the high rollers, and they want to try to throw counters off their game. You should be able to have a conversation, smile at them, and count right in front of them. If you can't, then you need more practice / shouldn't be counting in a high limit room and you're putting your friends money at risk.
Quote: RomesOf course the higher limit pits are 'generally' more watched, but that doesn't mean you're always being watched. Counters can often be paranoid that every little thing in a pit is about them (which sometimes it is, but sometimes it isn't). So what if you get watched/the boot? Are you playing in a city where you have numerous shops, or is this a "home" casino and you don't have a lot of other options? If you do have a lot of options, who cares... Don't treat a back off as something you fear, it for the most part lets you know you were doing something right. They should fear you, not the other way around. They can't do anything to you other than ask you to leave, and if they do, video it with your phone and sue them for tons. Half the reason the pit probably sweats you is because I bet you look nervous as hell.
You must not count too often. I physically can't sit at a blackjack table and not count. It's just too easy and second nature, the same as sitting at the table and breathing. The floor and pit coming over to talk to you is a completely normal thing. They want to glad hand the high rollers, and they want to try to throw counters off their game. You should be able to have a conversation, smile at them, and count right in front of them. If you can't, then you need more practice / shouldn't be counting in a high limit room and you're putting your friends money at risk.
This is what I was getting at in my previous post. Of course the OP, or anybody, gets more attention from the pit at a $100 table than at a $15 or $25 table. That's just good casino management. So just because they are "watching" you doesn't mean they are on to you as a counter they are just doing their jobs. Higher limit players get more "attention" good and bad than lower limit players. Also agree that a back off isn't that big a deal it's happened to just about everyone who counts sooner or later. So relax and play your game.
