blackjack basic strategy. progression/money management question

Did not do as well with dropping to base bet after any loss. The up one unit on any win works better for me overall. On double deck games with the usual 3 or more players, I only get about 6-7 hands. On occasions, I will regress to the min if lose two in a row at the max bet.

Quote: Romes

lol this is usually how I start a session... Recent trip 3 weeks ago I started losing 10 in a row, hopped tables, 13 in a row, hopped tables, 7 in a row. I'd like to know the odds of just that happening =p. So here's what would happen if I was progressive betting:

you lost 30 in a row?

I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.

Quote: AxelWolf

you lost 30 in a row?

I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.

At separate tables, but yes... With my love of mathematics it drives me crazy to actually see it happen to me, but at the same time all I'm thinking is "Wow what positive EV/CE am I building!" =p

Quote: AxelWolf

you lost 30 in a row?

I think you special 30 in a row losers should start a club and then laugh at the struck by lighting guys.

At separate tables, but yes... With my love of mathematics it drives me crazy to actually see it happen to me, but at the same time all I'm thinking is "Wow what positive EV/CE am I building!" =p

Others probably have had 'somewhat' similar losses... but as kewlj said, usually you don't take notice with all the other stuff going on. I don't know why I counted that particular night. Probably because I just started and hadn't won a hand yet, so I wanted to see how many it was before I won one.

Once I was back-counting tables in AC & I wonged in at a TC+3. After losing all weekend I won 13 hands a row (same table) all $100 bets. The pit-boss told me I could no longer place bets larger than $50 right there in front of everyone. Naturally, everyone at the table thought I was some kind of super-genius & wanted to talk to me lol

Quote: dwm

If you want progressions, a positive progression is much better. Up your bets on wins. Play double deck with good rules, start at table mininum, and up one unit on wins and then start anew again after each shuffle. You may just win a session or two.

I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.

Quote: kitties666

I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.

Wait, so are you counting? I never quite understood why someone would put so much work in to a bankroll, worry about attention from floor managers, and progression betting while not putting in the same time (or less) to just learn to count and actually play a winning game..

If you are counting - You need to spread more. You're playing (if you're lucky) a break even game.
If you're not counting - Why are you worried about heat, etc? You're not playing a winning game, and upon examination they'll know that and WANT you to play.

Quote: kitties666

I've been developing my strategy on similar sentiments. The game at mohegan in the northeast is tight...as such, so is my game. I spread 1-4 & I employ positive progression when winning & negative progression when losing (I don't ever go above my own personal max bet). If my max bet is $100, then my bankroll is $2500 & my grubstake per sitting is a little over 800 (& i buy in $400 at a time at high limit pits...big buy-ins = attention from floor managers....at least in my experience). Giving it another go next month at bonus time.

I've never played Mohegan so can't speak to the specific conditions there. However...if you are only buying in for 400 at a time and only spreading 1-4 units, there is virtually zero chance they are paying any attention to you as a possible counter. For what it's worth for new counters(which I sense the OP is)...worry less about heat and more about making sure your game is tight. You can't afford mistakes. You aren't hurting the casino much, if at all, with a 1-4 spread at a $25 table. They will let you play that game all day. It's probably only break even at best. So enjoy yourself and blend in. Additionally sometimes buying in 3 or 4 times gets more attention than 1 larger buy in, but that varies house to house I guess.

Quote: vendman1

I've never played Mohegan so can't speak to the specific conditions there. However...if you are only buying in for 400 at a time and only spreading 1-4 units, there is virtually zero chance they are paying any attention to you as a possible counter. For what it's worth for new counters(which I sense the OP is)...worry less about heat and more about making sure your game is tight. You can't afford mistakes. You aren't hurting the casino much, if at all, with a 1-4 spread at a $25 table. They will let you play that game all day. It's probably only break even at best. So enjoy yourself and blend in. Additionally sometimes buying in 3 or 4 times gets more attention than 1 larger buy in, but that varies house to house I guess.

Mohegan Sun has the same rules as the best Vegas Strip games minus RSA so you're looking at a house edge of 0.35%. Very playable rules so what's the problem? The same as it's been since 1996. Penetration. At an average of 66% it quickly kills things. Due diligence is imperative to find the very few dealers who are more generous. A pain in the neck for regular players and a daunting task at best for the casual visitor.

For someone already at green chip minimum bets, I suggest trying to build more bankroll and getting over to Foxwoods' Newport Room or the Fox Tower high limit room. The same rules apply with two minor exceptions. There is no unlimited pair splitting and 10s may be split once. These rooms almost always have $50 minimums although the room in the Fox Tower is not open weekday mornings. Fox Tower is what the former MGM Grand is now called.

I know it's a leap and I know it's not easy but you will be rewarded with penetration in the 83% to 85% range. A simulation of both penetration levels may surprise. I won't say that the room is heat free but at a 1-4 spread there's plenty of opportunities for creativity.

This is from a card counting perspective. I'm not sure where that leaves kitties.

I count. I think I do well at not looking like I'm counting, but the $50 & $100 pits seem to be extra attentive to me (& in general?), especially during slow times. I just feel like if I throw down $800 cash at the table it could be a little hot (suppose I could just buy chips at the window too). One experience over a year ago at a $50 pit left me feeling like I was being straight up watched...I wasn't even counting in that particular sitting & had a pit boss & floor manager hovering on my table & politely conversating with me. Perhaps i read too deep into it, but it didn't feel natural. I had another experience at Turning Stone where they almost backed me off of a 6D/H17 game with $15 minimums & unfavorable odds...

I do realize the break-evenness of my current game. I've been winning predictably (I am also lucky, which is another reason I play). I'm saving the larger spreads fo Vegas & San Diego. I like that DD game at Barona.