Quote: avenged43So lets say you stumble upon a casino while out with some friends that have 6 shoe 75% pen mid shoe entry allowed, and you decide what the hell why not. After "spectating" a game you notice at the end it hits a true 10 count (Running 20 with 2 decks remaining) you pull out your wallet and have 200$ on you. As a card counter with a 200$ stake how do you play, # of hands and bet per hand. 2 x $100? 1 x $200? Maybe 2 x $25? Just wondering how to handle that situation.
I am not an expert but assuming that losing the whole $200 is ok I would think that 2 bets of $35 would be close to ideal
Quote: avenged43So lets say you stumble upon a casino while out with some friends that have 6 shoe 75% pen mid shoe entry allowed, and you decide what the hell why not. After "spectating" a game you notice at the end it hits a true 10 count (Running 20 with 2 decks remaining) you pull out your wallet and have 200$ on you. As a card counter with a 200$ stake how do you play, # of hands and bet per hand. 2 x $100? 1 x $200? Maybe 2 x $25? Just wondering how to handle that situation.
The best bet would be 2 x $100
The true count is so high that it's worth it to bet more even if you can't afford to split or double. (You could also possibly obtain loans, stakes, or sell the action to your friends and/or tablemates if splits or doubles are possible)
You want to spread to two hands to capture as many of those high cards as possible.
You can ignore "risk of ruin" because a $200 bankroll is easily replenished from the real world and also the question stated that you are not a professional.
Quote: sodawaterThe best bet would be 2 x $100
The true count is so high that it's worth it to bet more even if you can't afford to split or double. (You could also possibly obtain loans, stakes, or sell the action to your friends and/or tablemates if splits or doubles are possible)
You want to spread to two hands to capture as many of those high cards as possible.
You can ignore "risk of ruin" because a $200 bankroll is easily replenished from the real world and also the question stated that you are not a professional.
Thats what I was thinking, also if I played every weekend with a $400 stake how much should I be betting a hand back counting waiting on 10+ TC ? I know full I18 and F4 with full perfect count / deck estimate. With the same 6 deck 75% pen game rules?
I try not to get greedy with my local casino so I believe a $500 stake is a fair amount to not draw to much heat, but should I also run 2 x $250 if I'm doing that every weekend?
First of all, largely depends on how many players are playing. If there are 5 other spots being played, you'll likely get 2 rounds. Probably bet two hands of $40 or so. If there's only one other player (or the only other player gets up and leaves), probably bet 1 hand of $40-50.
Never bet more than 1/3 of the cash on you on a single round. Absolutely have $$$ to split and/or double.
You'd only spread to 2 hands because you can get more money out there with less variance, especially if you only got 2 rounds (26 cards) left. Has nothing to do with "getting the good cards". If you winged in earlier in the shoe and played 2 hands, you may end up hurting yourself playing 2 hands instead of 1 because you would/could be wasting cards (yup, wasting cards in a +EV count).
Quote: avenged43Thats what I was thinking, also if I played every weekend with a $400 stake how much should I be betting a hand back counting waiting on 10+ TC ? I know full I18 and F4 with full perfect count / deck estimate. With the same 6 deck 75% pen game rules?
I try not to get greedy with my local casino so I believe a $500 stake is a fair amount to not draw to much heat, but should I also run 2 x $250 if I'm doing that every weekend?
Buy some good shoes. You're gonna be standing a lot. And sitting very little. Don't wait until a true 10. It's a rare event.
Quote: RSNever bet more than 1/3 of the cash on you on a single round. Absolutely have $$$ to split and/or double.
This.
$200/3=$66 (or so), call it $60 on the spot to not look weird.
If the table rules allow resplits and double after split, you may want to limit that to 1/6 instead - a pair of 8's can quickly become 3 doubled hands.
If possible, have chips in your pocket, rather than cash. Don't tick everyone off by slowing the game down for your buy-in. The "what the heck, I've got a couple of chips left, let's try this" is a lot more believable if you're coming in with... chips, rather than cash.
If they think you might be counting.......... you can act as if you are trying to impress your friends and show them how to bet big rather than their penny ante play.
Why bet 25? That is not much return on your investment of being "out with some friends" and counting down the decks. Heck, I can walk in there and bet 25 dollars right off the bat without having to watch for the three of diamonds and award it half a point if its a north wind and then correcting for magnetic variance to get a true count.
Quote: avenged43So lets say you stumble upon a casino while out with some friends that have 6 shoe 75% pen mid shoe entry allowed, and you decide what the hell why not. After "spectating" a game you notice at the end it hits a true 10 count (Running 20 with 2 decks remaining) you pull out your wallet and have 200$ on you. As a card counter with a 200$ stake how do you play, # of hands and bet per hand. 2 x $100? 1 x $200? Maybe 2 x $25? Just wondering how to handle that situation.
It really depends if you're trying to do this professionally or not for a true numerical answer. However it does not seem apparent that is your goal. With that in mind, and hopefully your $200 replenishable... I would bet 2x$50, to keep your other $100 for double downs / splits (as you should know 10-10 splits to several small cards at this point), unless like RS said you believe you could get a loan/action from your friends at the table. In that case I would bet 2x$100.
I also wouldn't plan on winning them, then sitting down and flat betting $10 off the top to continue playing. Hit and run.
Edit: Also I thinks someone else in the thread mentioned...don't wait for a TC of 10. You'll wait a long time before you play.
Quote: avenged43So lets say you stumble upon a casino while out with some friends that have 6 shoe 75% pen mid shoe entry allowed, and you decide what the hell why not. After "spectating" a game you notice at the end it hits a true 10 count (Running 20 with 2 decks remaining) you pull out your wallet and have 200$ on you. As a card counter with a 200$ stake how do you play, # of hands and bet per hand. 2 x $100? 1 x $200? Maybe 2 x $25? Just wondering how to handle that situation.
Assuming the table minimum is $5, I would bet $10 or 2 x $5 with a $200 stake.
I started with a $100 stake at $5 tables and this is exactly what I bet at +10 when I first began. I played about break-even statistically (though I was a bit hazy on exactly what I was doing at the time) because I quit playing when the count hit -1 and used a full range of deviations. So if you jump in when the count is +10 and have not played any other hands, you clearly have an advantage no matter what you bet. You cannot bet your entire stake, or a large portion of it, every time you have a substantial advantage. If you do so, you have a larger chance of going bust than the worst player in the casino who flat bets the minimum. I'm not on the same page as people who think bankrolls can be replenished because it complicates something simple...money not on hand, but that will be available, should be counted as part of the bankroll. Hoping to replenish it one day, needing to save up for a month after being wiped out in 5 minutes, is not a replenishing a bankroll...it's losing it and getting a new one.
If you are intent on spending your money that day and never counting again, I also agree 2 x 50 is the best route if it is DAS. That seems better than betting 1/3 of your money on one hand because 1) You get more money on the table and 2) You are eating good cards that ploppies would otherwise get. 2 X 100 is terrible because you cannot double or split, so it might as well be a +4 count as far as that decreases your advantage. You never go all in b4 the deal.
You've stated you go every weekend. I hope you are aware you are betting FAR too much money and will be utterly destroyed. I've seen it happen. People think card counting is a get rich quick scheme. $10 is a high bet for your bankroll.
Quote: avenged43Yes , I have gone every weekend quite a bit, and playing 25 - 100 spread on +8 counts has taken me up 2000 and down 300, I've won 70% of the time, I understand that its not logical to play such big hands with a $200 stake, but I do have a job and I do get lucky often. Honestly as a back counter betting high when I have such a statistical advantage in my eyes the big money once in a while is worth the little loss every now and then. I also understand its a "Win in the long run" kind of game but when its your local casino and your seen there several times a week and you scout tables and sit in on $10 hands on the daily its probably just as suspicious as scouting and sitting in on $1000 hands. Either way the answers are so diverse seems like everyone just plays their own strategy with back counting rather then the traditional spread methods on full shoe counting.
I stopped reading after you went down 300. That is impossible on $200. If you have only $400-500 as your bankroll, and are betting 25-100, you will be consistently destroyed. It doesn't matter if you got lucky a few times and think I'm wrong because I'm so used to ploppies telling me everything under the sun that defies math and logic based on their altered sense of reality that this type of nonsense doesn't even make me blink. There is a difference between session and total bankroll, and I'm not 100% which you are talking about...I'm assuming you have a few hundred to play with total. Don't mean to be harsh, but I've seen people who think they know what they're doing...and try to reason around obstacles...in the end they want to put way too much money out when they think they have an advantage cuz they think it's a get rich scheme. What happens? They lose a week's pay in 10 minutes. They can't afford to play. And what do they say? Oh, uh, I can afford to spend $200 a week and there are 52 weeks in a year. No they cant. Their bankroll is zilch. Guy who I'm thinking of...had a gambling problem before he 'learned' how to count...then decides learning to count is more important than basic strategy...then bets up to $70 on a $200-300 bankroll that he shares with his girlfriend (who raises her bet in negative counts since he isn't playing)..then forgets, the whole time, that the 1.5 deck cut-off counts as undealt cards in the true count conversion (in other words, he was max betting in neutral counts). He eventually gave up cuz counting doesn't work. Previous to this, he always flat bet the minimum. It was a get-rich quick scheme for him and I unfortunately introduced him to it since he saw me win, and it's especially luring for those with a gambling habit.
Quote: avenged43Yes , I have gone every weekend quite a bit, and playing 25 - 100 spread on +8 counts has taken me up 2000 and down 300, I've won 70% of the time, I understand that its not logical to play such big hands with a $200 stake, but I do have a job and I do get lucky often. Honestly as a back counter betting high when I have such a statistical advantage in my eyes the big money once in a while is worth the little loss every now and then. I also understand its a "Win in the long run" kind of game but when its your local casino and your seen there several times a week and you scout tables and sit in on $10 hands on the daily its probably just as suspicious as scouting and sitting in on $1000 hands. Either way the answers are so diverse seems like everyone just plays their own strategy with back counting rather then the traditional spread methods on full shoe counting.
You're falling prey to the typical newbie card counter theory... The count TC is +10, I'm a huuuuuuuuuge favorite! No... no you're not. If we simply take averages, the game is -.5%, and each TC is worth .5% to the player, then at TC +10, you're a 4.5% favor. This is 'huge' in comparison to a normal advantage, but take a step back and look at that real quick. 54/46 is not some huge advantage as you'll still lose almost half of the time. The fact that you've won ~70% of the time shows you're on the good side of variance.
Don't get me wrong. If you have the time/scouts/patients, back counting and wonging can be extremely profitable... but don't think because you're doing that you're invincible, or at least expect to win ~70% of the time. Also, yes if you're back counting you don't need as big of a spread. I sure hope on average you take more than $200 if you're going to 4-1 spread $25-$100 though. Would be a horrible thing to hit +10, bet $100, double down, lose, then leave the awesome +10 count because you're out of money; leaving that situation would pain me more than losing in it.
Lastly, be careful how often you do this. Surveillance has a word for people just standing behind tables watching. Last I heard it was called "buzzards." So they're aware of your hovering usually. Don't think because you're not playing you're not being watched. Even with back counting you need to be cautious. I'm glad you've had some initial success. Most all of us that stick with it do =P. Now learn from your mistakes and tighten your game up before it starts to cost you =).
Quote: RomesYou're falling prey to the typical newbie card counter theory... The count TC is +10, I'm a huuuuuuuuuge favorite! No... no you're not. If we simply take averages, the game is -.5%, and each TC is worth .5% to the player, then at TC +10, you're a 4.5% favor. This is 'huge' in comparison to a normal advantage, but take a step back and look at that real quick. 54/46 is not some huge advantage as you'll still lose almost half of the time. The fact that you've won ~70% of the time shows you're on the good side of variance.
Don't get me wrong. If you have the time/scouts/patients, back counting and wonging can be extremely profitable... but don't think because you're doing that you're invincible, or at least expect to win ~70% of the time. Also, yes if you're back counting you don't need as big of a spread. I sure hope on average you take more than $200 if you're going to 4-1 spread $25-$100 though. Would be a horrible thing to hit +10, bet $100, double down, lose, then leave the awesome +10 count because you're out of money; leaving that situation would pain me more than losing in it.
Lastly, be careful how often you do this. Surveillance has a word for people just standing behind tables watching. Last I heard it was called "buzzards." So they're aware of your hovering usually. Don't think because you're not playing you're not being watched. Even with back counting you need to be cautious. I'm glad you've had some initial success. Most all of us that stick with it do =P. Now learn from your mistakes and tighten your game up before it starts to cost you =).
I 100% agree, I do have a blackjack partner who scouts and plays the 2nd 6 deck bj pit at our local casino and unfortunately I have seen him hit bad variance more then a handful of times, I was interested in finding someone to sim out a true 8 count 4 hand consecutive run and check avg % of 4 hand wins but unfortunately lack the software myself. I know that Wizard of Odds ran the sim in just regular bj and got 5% chance to win 4 hands consecutive without counting ( just basic statistic). The reason I say is I did see a gentlemen a few weeks back with a decent bank roll (talking around 50k) play out double compounding hands (2 hands 100, followed by 2 hands 200, then 400, then 800) The math ended with 4 round of both hand wins at $3200 with an original stake of $200. Meaning 16 consecutive losses would be necessary to lose per one win. If you have a 1/20 chance of 4 consecutive wins in a basic game of blackjack just wondering if it changes a little more in your favor on a true 8 count 2 hand 4 round play. Its kind of like the martingale betting strategy with more risk in the fact that if you lose once your out for the day. At the same time the table minimum at the local casino is also $25... which is kind of the reason I play $25 since I have no choice in the matter eh.... There is another casino locally that is 8 deck 75% pen with only 1 blackjack pit that I feel like every pit boss knows me by name at with $5 hand min and $200 max, I think that back counting at this establishment is far more dangerous then one with over 5,000 employees and over 8 pits where I have never seen the same pit boss twice yet have to play at least $25 minimum on hand shuffled 6 deck. Anyone have opinions on the matter? I feel like my risk of ruin at an 8 deck 75% pen where every pit boss knows me and I have to sit and play out every shoe is higher then playing $25 hands at 6 deck 75% pen. on only 8+ count shoes (normally within 3 hands of the cut card)?
So I guess my question is....
Do I have a better chance playing a $5 game where I play out the entire deck every shoe until a true -1 where I get up and if so, with a $200 stake do I even have room to spread (cause if not I already take away my advantage as an AP...) or should I rather play at the $25 minimum table with 6 deck 75% pen at only true +8 running with .... lets say 1 hand of $25 (the minimum) for the last 4 rounds of the shoe?
And how often are you seeing TC +8's?? I might see them once or twice in a night (counting 2 tables). Hell, on my last trip last weekend we played for about 8 hours on a couple tables and only saw a few good shoes the entire night, one of which was TC +6.5, so we didn't even see a TC +8.
As you'll learn when you get more and more in to counting, casino tolerance, heat, etc, is something that comes with experience. Your best bet is to play where you aren't very well known, but eventually you'll be well known everywhere local to you and you'll need to use a carefully orchestrated rotation to keep under the radar. You're already back counting so I assume you're not playing rated (what's the point when you might only play 2-3 rounds at a table)? This should also keep your sessions short if you're bouncing from pit to pit on those 8 different pits. I would also try to go during different shift hours. In our recent trip we played till about 4am. Well we know from experience the night shift leave at 11am... So we were back at 11:15am for our morning session.
I see myself all too well in a lot of your thinking. It's working, well, and you want to continue and push what you can without realizing the bankroll requirements for what you're doing, trying to think of 'new ways' (that many have failed at before) for leveraging Marty in to your play, etc. As suggested in my previous post, take a step back to really analyze your play, your bankroll, etc. If we only analyze our play when we're losing, then obviously you've stopped winning before doing so. Sometimes that analysis can keep you on the winning track, which makes all the difference in small bankroll management.
Keep fighting the good fight, and good luck (you might need it) =p.
Quote: avenged43Do I have a better chance playing a $5 game where I play out the entire deck every shoe until a true -1 where I get up
You should find a 2 deck game.
Quote: DieterYou should find a 2 deck game.
I have a 2 deck game, $25 minimum 50% penetration..... not exactly promising....
Quote: avenged43I have a 2 deck game, $25 minimum 50% penetration..... not exactly promising....
No good. I like 65% or more but would consider 60% with great rules and few players.
Quote: 1BBNo good. I like 65% or more but would consider 60% with great rules and few players.
None of those nearby sadly :[
Choices are
8 deck 75% pen 25 min mid shoe entry (MSE)
6 deck 75% pen 25 min MSE
2 deck 50% pen 25 min 3:2 payout NMSE
1 deck 50% pen 25 min 6:5 payout NMSE
these are all hand shuffle with shoe, they have $5 min but they are all continuous shuffle with MSE
or
8 deck 75% pen 5 min with MSE
:x
With a $500 bank roll which would you guys choose and how would you guys play?
Quote: avenged43With a $500 bank roll...
With a $500 bankroll, none of them. Is this your total bankroll I'd assume (considering you said you had $200 on you earlier, and that your BR is $500)? Are you able to replenish this bankroll?
If you actually played through that 8D $5 game, you'd need a spread something like 15-1, meaning your big bet is something like $75. Using the OLD and DATED way to calculated your bankroll (sim it for exact results) you'd want 100 times your big bet, or as I've seen 1BB state before 200 times... Thus you'd a need $7,500-$15,000 bankroll to play this $5 game properly. I hope you see now why I was saying you were more than likely under funded earlier.
So as stated you're under funded. However, if you're doing this for fun / part time to make a little money and you're able to replenish your $500, then the best scenario I guess would be to hardcore back count and wong (which will make for long nights of boredom). Then you could wong in at any TC +2 or better and just flat bet $25, leaving if the TC goes below +2. This could cut your bankroll considerations greatly, but again, on $500 you're still coming up short.
Hell, you'd be better off back counting, wonging in at +2, and then flat betting $5 on the $5 table. At least this would give you 100 bets =p. Something tells me this wouldn't be enough action for you after spreading $25-$100 though!
Never bet unless you have money at least to double or split once. If you bet all the $200 with no money to double or split you play with a disadvantage even at TC = 10.
Actually as other people said, the money should cover 2 additional bets (double/splits). So the max is 1/3 of the $200, ie around $60. say practical $50,
BUT if there are many rounds to go, even the $50 is not optimum. I would bet $25 and increase to $50 if Bankroll goes to $300.
On the question of if you have a Total Bankroll of $500 what you do.
Well, with $500 you cannot do anything.
Quote: 1BBLet me sum it up by saying that if you play underfunded you are just gambling.
Thank you. Have I said Jesus Christ lately?
Quote: avenged43With a $500 bank roll which would you guys choose and how would you guys play?
You haven't really described what your $500 is, or how long it is, or...
If we say that $500 is your limit for the day, and it's OK to lose it all, and you recognize that you're gambling rather than advantage playing (albeit using counting techniques and trying to be sensible about your actions, despite being underfunded), I'd suggest the 2 deck game, and I'd suggest no more than 2 other players at the table with you.
Otherwise... have you considered video poker?
Quote: Dieter
Otherwise... have you considered video poker?
Or calling that hotline? Tell them the deck was hot, you had to bet your paycheck. Explain to them it's counting, not gambling.
Quote: SonuvabishOr calling that hotline? Tell them the deck was hot, you had to bet your paycheck. Explain to them it's counting, not gambling.
Not gonna lie.... I laughed xD
If you are plunking down any significant chunk of your available bankroll, you are playing at a very high RoR. At such a count you are still not favored to win the hand. You will lose more hands than you win. The slight advantage comes from the fact that you will get slightly more blackjacks at the 3-2 payout (assuming you aren't playing the 6-5 crap) and to a lesser degree, more winning double down opportunities (but mostly it's the increased blackjacks).
So, you are basically just taking a shot if you plunk down a significant amount of your available BR on such situation. Now, granted, if you are going to 'take a shot', better to do so with a slight advantage than slight disadvantage. Just don't mistakenly think you are playing at some BIG advantage and plunk down half your bankroll.
Quote: avenged43None of those nearby sadly :[
Choices are
8 deck 75% pen 25 min mid shoe entry (MSE)
6 deck 75% pen 25 min MSE
2 deck 50% pen 25 min 3:2 payout NMSE
1 deck 50% pen 25 min 6:5 payout NMSE
these are all hand shuffle with shoe, they have $5 min but they are all continuous shuffle with MSE
or
8 deck 75% pen 5 min with MSE
:x
With a $500 bank roll which would you guys choose and how would you guys play?
Build a stronger bankroll. Even a $2k session bankroll will suffice.
Wong the 6 deckers at true 1.5 n bet a 25-50. At a true 2 bet $75. At true 3 or higher bet $150. Wong out at true 0. Back count the 8 deckers when no 6D's are available.
Not making much $$$ per round or hour. But you can't do much with a small BR.
BTW, saying you should have a $2k session bankroll (have at least $1250 before sifting on a game). Ideally you'd have much more.
Quote: kewljNot to pick on the OP, but this thread (and others like it), shows how often new players really don't understand the slim advantage you are dealing with when it comes to blackjack card counting. It is a common mistake for newer players to think, wow, true count +8 or +10, and think they have a BIG advantage and overbet. @ a TC of +8, in a shoe game, you only have about a 3% advantage.
If you are plunking down any significant chunk of your available bankroll, you are playing at a very high RoR. At such a count you are still not favored to win the hand. You will lose more hands than you win. The slight advantage comes from the fact that you will get slightly more blackjacks at the 3-2 payout (assuming you aren't playing the 6-5 crap) and to a lesser degree, more winning double down opportunities (but mostly it's the increased blackjacks).
So, you are basically just taking a shot if you plunk down a significant amount of your available BR on such situation. Now, granted, if you are going to 'take a shot', better to do so with a slight advantage than slight disadvantage. Just don't mistakenly think you are playing at some BIG advantage and plunk down half your bankroll.
This is exactly what I was thinking reading this whole thread. I mentioned earlier that the best thing the OP could do is get a bigger bankroll. Even at a $5 table 200-500 dollars is just gambling. The thin margins you are playing, at an advantage, work best over large numbers of hands. The OP doesn't have enough money for large numbers of hands. He is asking technical CC questions that indicate he understands the principals of counting..good for him. But the thing everyone (me included) loses sight of from time to time, is this. Even under ideal conditions, with good rules, and good penetration, and a casino that doesn't sweat the money. You still have only a 1 or 2% edge over the house. So with a bankroll that small you are limited to the whims of variance. All the other information...2 deck vs. 6 deck, penetration percentage, matter very little, if at all, compared to the huge disadvantage the OP is putting himself in with a small bankroll.
So OP, you seem interested in learning to be a good counter. Great..welcome to the club. But do yourself a favor and wait and build the bankroll. Trust me, when I was a newbie counter, I made a lot of these same mistakes. Just trying to help you avoid some pitfalls.