Expected value after hand is dealt
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Quote: OmahaYour hand and the dealer up card has been dealt. What are odds of winning in each situation over the long run? What are the odds of winning out right if hand is hit as opposed to doubled one card?
Your chances of winning a random hand is 43%. Your chances of not losing is 52%.
Your chances of winning a random hand if hit are ALMOST always better (never worse, sometimes same) than if you double, assuming you otherwise play correct basic strategy. I doubt a calculation will be easy to find regarding win %, since it is irrelevant and the pertinent statistic is that such a strategy will cause a great deal of money to be lost in a short time.
Quote: SonuvabishYour chances of winning a random hand is 43%. Your chances of not losing is 52%...
I think you got it backwards =). Random hand you lose 49%, win 42%, and push 9%.
Quote: Omahanot a random hand.. im asking the odds after the hand has been dealt.. for example what are the odds of winning 10 8 and the dealer shows a 7. Or 7 6 against a 9.
You're asking for the EV for every possible combination of hands/dealer cards... a bit different.
The Wizard does amazing things for you... Check out the calculations.
you ask in the Title about EV and the Wizard has that as do many othersQuote: Omahanot a random hand.. im asking the odds after the hand has been dealt.. for example what are the odds of winning 10 8 and the dealer shows a 7. Or 7 6 against a 9.
you are now asking about the winning/losing probabilities for starting hands
I thought you almost always win at BJ and hardly ever lose, so why the fear?
I understand learning is fun so we continue for fun sake
the Wizard has an Excel sheet for ev (https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/)
I have it on my computer in a folder named 21
he also has other ev charts too
and it should have that info,(win-lose-push) maybe not easily seen at first glance, I did not look too close
you can do the math for 10,8 vs 7 seeing the ev (depends on the rules of the game too, I used 6D, H17)
I can sim this also in CVData
(I find this easier as I can water some plants, have some Skittles and put away some clean laundry)
p(L) = .231
p(W) = .630
p(P) = .138
these were rounded too
but this is for hard 18 vs 7, not what you asked
hmmmm
Wiz table = 0.397743 = ev for stand (of course IF you know the next card is a 3, double down if allowed, or hit if a 2 or A)
how to get the probs from the Wizard's EVs...
hmmm
look in his Excel..
ah, maybe
added:
0.630878602
0.137796963
0.231324435
if I added correctly (This is just from the Dealer showing a 7)
now one could do (not really) some math to get the probabilities
I get you started
p(W)*1 + p(L)*-1 + p(P)*0 = 0.397743
p(L) + p(W) + p(P) = 1
hmmm
of course
p>=0
looks fun!
Omaha, how much fun do you really want to have doing this?
Sally
added:
I also found this from Alan Krigman
(have not verified his numbers)
Probabilities of wins, pushes, and losses when hitting or doubling on a 10 vs 9-up
action resolution
win push lose
hit 50.1% 11.4% 38.6%
double 49.3% 8.7% 42.0%
http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/article/is-it-always-best-to-double-down-in-blackjack-when-basic-strategy-says-to-61391
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one more
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/2102-a-look-at-probability-of-winning-based-on-expected-return/
maybe this is what you seek
to me that excel considers only a win/lose
as that OP explains
and this one
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-doublechart.php
6DS17
Sally
Quote: RomesI think you got it backwards =). Random hand you lose 49%, win 42%, and push 9%.
No I didn't; I re-read it to make sure I'm not dyslexic. And I think Wizard's data is an algebraic approximation. 43-48 I believe is simulated.
Quote: Omahanot a random hand.. im asking the odds after the hand has been dealt.. for example what are the odds of winning 10 8 and the dealer shows a 7. Or 7 6 against a 9.
What is not random about these hands? It should be obvious that there is a different expected value for every different hand. If your hand has a value of -.5, then you will win 1/4 times; this is important to know for surrender. A value of 0, you win 1/2, this is common sense. But expected value doesn't necessarily translate into how often you will win the hand; doubling increases the value of your hand, and generally decreases the chances you will win.
NegatronQuote: Sonuvabishdoubling increases the value of your hand, and generally decreases the chances you will win.
Quote: SonuvabishNo I didn't; I re-read it to make sure I'm not dyslexic. And I think Wizard's data is an algebraic approximation. 43-48 I believe is simulated.
The Wizard's blackjack appendix 4 says 42.42 to win a random hand... Ignoring ties (which I wasn't) 46.36%. I'm on my phone in Vegas so I can't direct link but I'm confident it's 42% win, 49% loss, and 9% tie.
Quote: RomesThe Wizard's blackjack appendix 4 says 42.42 to win a random hand... Ignoring ties (which I wasn't) 46.36%. I'm on my phone in Vegas so I can't direct link but I'm confident it's 42% win, 49% loss, and 9% tie.
Wow...it's a good thing that all blackjack games conform to the parameters of the analysis in the appendix and that no one else ever did a valid analysis. Otherwise, I'd think that there was nothing wrong with my original numbers. Thanks for the perpetual correction of this important and practical statistic.
Quote: 98ClubsNote there is a big difference in rules like Stand or Hit Soft-17, and wether or not Surrender is allowed. These affect W/L %.
DUH, no they don't. See above ad nauseam. Romes proved this by assertion.
Quote: SonuvabishDUH, no they don't. See above ad nauseam. Romes proved this by assertion.
Where does the difference in HE come from if not from a W/L shift?
Quote: RomesI think you got it backwards =). Random hand you lose 49%, win 42%, and push 9%.
That math matches to within 1% of what Sonuvabish said in the post you criticized. What's up?
Quote: rdw4potusWhere does the difference in HE come from if not from a W/L shift?
I don't know, maybe they give you a certain amount back as cash after each hand...ask Romes, he's the expert. All I know is that the rules and house edge don't change W/L percentage, because anything contradicting Romes is wrong. I can't speak for you, but he knows way more about this stuff than I do. I can only describe Romes as ambitious and hard-working. A lot of people are too lazy to read the Wizard's appendices.
