Allow me to finally introduce myself + TR + Upcoming Vegas Trip!

First, I’d like to thank the Wizard for both of his sites. I've been referencing WoO for years and very oddly enough never even knew WoV, or this forums existed. I enjoy every mathematical breakdown of every game, side bets, playing conditions, etc. You are a true hero for solving many, many questions of which the masses would mostly let go unanswered.

I’ll give a little background... I’m a red chipper and have been counting (using hi-low) for about 8 years part time with some years getting more hours than others. I don’t plan to make this my full time profession. I do it because I enjoy using my brain to overcome an entity that preys on the lesser minds of our society. I also love games in general, and I also do it to get a little bit of extra cash here and there, and I love the comps (not that I get a whooole lot at my level) – it’s the irony of the situation. The Wizard could not have nailed me anymore in his definition of most counters on the radio show (https://wizardofodds.com/audio/). Overall though, I’m proud to report that I have been a winning player of the last 7/8 years (nasty 6+ month swings of variance!). I’m a computer engineer with a math minor so I've also programmed simulators for my exact play / playing conditions. I plan to release an opensource JavaScript simulator, as a way of giving back to these forums, whenever I get around to adding the functionality to program in your own spread, playing conditions, etc – It’s all hard coded to my personal experience as of now. I also plan to release another thread I'm finishing working on that is Card Counting A-Z for all of the new/beginner/intermediate people who post a lot of the same questions, don't know where to start, etc.

Fun fact: The few potential counters I've ever encountered we either got out of each others way, or they did something insane that made me believe they weren't a counter (unless they were hole carding or something). So suffice to say, I've never met up with any other counters to chat, trade stories, team play, etc. I was a member on the blackjackinfo forums before they were shut down; they were/are still a plethora of fantastic information.

Another fun fact: I've never 'officially' been backed off. I've received a lot of pretty extreme heat (lots of phone calls, POINTING at me while on the phone, 4 pit bosses coming over to watch my table) but I've ducked out before getting backed off I guess. Yes, I know you’re instantly thinking I’m doing something wrong or not spreading enough, but you’ll see below I spread a lot (1-20 at my local shop 6D) and I’m very aggressive on my trips to Vegas, etc. I use a some cover and personally believe I have a great ploppy act. Also, recall I'm a red chipper and rotate shops. I’m sure I’ll get this cherry popped at El Cortez during my upcoming Vegas trip =P.

I've read almost every thread on both blackjackinfo and WoV forums in regards to their Blackjack or Card Counting categories, including interviews, etc. Yes, all 99 pages of 20 threads per page with every other page having the repeating thread – What % of the time will I get X hand? Or, how often will the dealer bust with X upcard?? I've also read Thorp, Wong, and Rever’s books. Wong is definitely the best for numbers, but I enjoyed Thorp's 'coming of age' blackjack stories on how he got started, the heat he got, the offers he got, the cheating, etc.

Lastly, I’d like to already give a shout out to kewlj, 1BB, and others as I believe they were posters on blackjackinfo and I've loved the fantastic advice they've always provided since then. I always find another small thing to make my game better through your posts, thank you! Also, AceOfSpades your trip reports are always a fun read (even if you use SC and somehow don’t eat seafood lol). I think they’re great because they’re a little bit more real time, with pictures, etc. Which has inspired me to do the same style of reporting for my upcoming trip to Vegas =D, and a couple of my recent weekend trips. In fact, I just posted a recent trip report here.


Vegas Trip
As mentioned I have an upcoming Vegas Trip. I decided that I would document everything for what I'm hoping to be an exciting trip report. Below you'll find a "pre-trip" report that I haven't seen anyone give and I'm hoping people are interested in.

– Live thread/updates will be made Sep. 23 – Sep 28th (I'll make another thread for the live TR) –
Trip Bankroll: $3,000 - 4,000 (Not 100 big bets, but a decent TRIP br)
Hands to Play: ~3,000 hands – 6 hours/day at an avg of 80 hands per hour.
Trip Duration: 6 Days
Expected Value: ~$1,000 (pending which games are played the most).
Shops to Visit: I’d rather not say, but several not on the Vegas Survey and several on it as well.
Limits: $5-$15. If my brother and I combine bankrolls for an evening perhaps we’ll play a $25 game, but we probably won’t. I’ll be looking to play mostly DD games. Also, a couple buddies of mine who've over the years asked/know about my game have actually offered to be "investors" in the upcoming trip. I didn't say anything to them about anything like that, they approached me, but I'm thinking it might not be the best idea unless it's enough to comfortably jump limits. We'll see.
Bet Spread:

$5 DD – 10 to 1 (two hands starting at TC 2)
$10 DD – 8 to 1 (two hands starting at TC 2)
$10 6D – 20 to 1 (two hands starting at TC 2)

Expected Gain Per Hour:
$5 DD - $25.06
$10 DD - $38.06
$10 6D - $34.50

I’m following Kelly Criteria for my bankroll on this TRIP. It should be noted that I’m aware this is aggressive as with two hands it could be looked at as ‘a little under’ Double Kelly (as anything over will inevitably lead to certain ruin). I’m ~1.5xKelly for Double Deck conditions/expectations. Also, if I lose half my Tip BR I will use bet re-sizing.

((1 * %win) - %lose) / 1= Avg Bet
((1 * .505) - .495) / 1 = 1%

1% of 3K bankroll is $30 avg bet, I have $33.

Standard Deviation = 1.15
Variance = SD^2 = 1.3225
Kelly = Adv / Variance

Here’s my Benchmark 6D conditions/expectations (yes % change for decks/rules/pen):



Are there any recommendations, tweeks, etc? Note: I will be using some cover, but mostly blasting away as I'll have a lot of options near by.

Thanks for any feedback, comments, etc. I'm glad to have found this great forum =).

- Romes

I just want to say WELCOME to this forum and its very easy to see you are the real deal. As you have observed there are many great people and posters on here who are willing to help whenever possible. Have a great trip!

Welcome

what's the idea with 1.5Kelly or nearly 2XKelly ?

Quote: Boz

I just want to say WELCOME to this forum and its very easy to see you are the real deal. As you have observed there are many great people and posters on here who are willing to help whenever possible. Have a great trip!

Thanks Boz!

Quote: odiousgambit

Welcome

what's the idea with 1.5Kelly or nearly 2XKelly ?

Generally most professionals (from what I've seen/read) recommend 1x Kelly for bet sizing. Kelly Criteria can be found a lot of places. It basically tells you what you should bet (as noted in my post above). The more aggressive approach is to run upwards of 2x Kelly for bet sizing. This approach will lead to more fluctuation in the short run, but is of course more profitable (if you can stand the swings) because you're betting even more when you have the advantage. The issue comes after 2xKelly that the fluctuations become so great it almost doesn't matter your bankroll size you will inevitably dip down below 0, i.e. go bust.

I like to be rather aggressive on my trips, putting as much in the circle when I have the highest advantage as possible (with respect to not basically asking to go bust by going over 2xKelly). Thus, for my spread above you can see I'm more than 1xKelly, but less than 2xKelly... Where as defined above Kelly defines my average bet should be ~$30.

Example:

At TC +2... my advantage is: .5%, or .005. Applying that to the Kelly formula below:

((1 * %win) - %lose) / 1= Avg Bet

We get:

((1 * .505) - .495) / 1= Avg Bet
((1 * .505) - .495) / 1 = 1%

So for this 'level' (TC = +2) My bet for 1xKelly should be 1% of my bankroll. If my bankroll is 3K, then my bet should be $30. You'll note that I have my bet spread at $40 for a TC = +2. So this is slightly over 1xKelly.

This is also just a benchmark. If I end up taking $5k to vegas, then 1% of $5k is $50, so I need to rework my spread pending my bankroll.

Seems like I heard in some thread here to do exactly Kelly only. However, if your bankroll is larger than what you actually take to the casino, which is the case with me, fudging upwards on a Kelly based on what you take makes sense.

Don't ask me why I care, the only time I get into AP situations are brief short-lived things based on coupons or whatever.

I enjoyed both your trip report and your introduction thread herein
I know I am using SC and many want me to upgrade BUT, if I do so, it will be in my own time when I feel I want too.
I thank you for the compliment of my trips reports inspiring your own. Yours was excellent and will indeed light a fire under my a$$ for my next trip report.

Welcome aboard!!!

Quote: aceofspades

I enjoyed both your trip report and your introduction thread herein
I know I am using SC and many want me to upgrade BUT, if I do so, it will be in my own time when I feel I want too.
I thank you for the compliment of my trips reports inspiring your own. Yours was excellent and will indeed light a fire under my a$$ for my next trip report.

Welcome aboard!!!

Thanks AOS! I look forward to you burning AC down =P.

Welcome Romes!

Sitting here 14 hours' flying time from Vegas, I yearn for my next trip but it's unlikely to be in the near future unfortunately. Hence I love reminiscing by reading trip reports from good folks like Ace and yourself who take the time to post (thanks a lot).

Silly questions: where is your latest trip report and when are you planning this new trip to Vegas?

Cheers,

U 235

Quote: Uranium235

Welcome Romes!

Sitting here 14 hours' flying time from Vegas, I yearn for my next trip but it's unlikely to be in the near future unfortunately. Hence I love reminiscing by reading trip reports from good folks like Ace and yourself who take the time to post (thanks a lot).

Silly questions: where is your latest trip report and when are you planning this new trip to Vegas?

Cheers,

U 235

Hey Uranium235 (shouldn't it be 238 =p)... Thanks for the feedback! If you're referring to the latest trip report location on the forums I linked the TR in my opening post. As far as the casino(s) I was at, in the TR I state that I'd rather not mention =/.

I also denoted in the opening post that I'd be in Vegas from Sept. 23rd - Sept. 28th. =)

Quote: Romes

Hey Uranium235 (shouldn't it be 238 =p)... Thanks for the feedback! If you're referring to the latest trip report location on the forums I linked the TR in my opening post. As far as the casino(s) I was at, in the TR I state that I'd rather not mention =/.

I also denoted in the opening post that I'd be in Vegas from Sept. 23rd - Sept. 28th. =)

Welcome, Romes, great TR and intro! Hope you have a great time in Vegas. Some good stuff happening that weekend around Vegas - some of the flyers have been very tempting. You might PM the Wizard and see if he's going to be around; he tends to know who from here is in town any given time.

Welcome Romes . In case you do not know Aceofspades :

"I know I am using SC and many want me to upgrade BUT, if I do so, it will be in my own time when I feel I want too."

He will want to WHEN he has that 15-17K losing session. Yes, I said when and not if !

Buzz, please don't hijack this thread into another AoS, speed count discussion. We all KNOW your position and ACE is well aware how many of us feel. This is a quality introduction and post by this new member and let's respect that please.

Romes: First, welcome. And thank you for the mention and the mention of my participation at blackjackinfo. I can honestly say, that BJinfo was the best thing that happened to me and my career. I owe most of any modest success that I have enjoyed, to my participation there and to the members who willingly shared their knowledge and experiences.

This was a fine introductory post, Romes. The detail clearly shows that you take this topic seriously. Now, that the pleasantries are over, I do have some concerns about a couple things that I would like to share.

First, Stanford Wong and Professional Blackjack. I am a great admirer of SW, participate on his site and am lucky enough occasionally pick his brain about BJ and other topics in some of the weekly chats. He is a fascinating gentleman. PBJ is an outstanding reference book, BUT it is now outdated. Mostly because of the dealer hit soft 17 rule, which was not in existence when the book was published, but is almost universal now. This rule increases the house edge from a standard, common rule 6 deck game from .43 to .64. This means that all the 'benchmark' conditions and expectations that you posted are flawed. Instead of the game being break even at a true count of +1, break even comes closer to +1.5. @ TC +2, you will have roughly a .25% rather than .5% and so on and so forth on down the line. This means that all numbers, winrates and expectations will be lower (unless you have already accounted for this difference).

Second thing I have an issue with is your proposed bet spread in relationship to bankroll. As a player with a non-replenishible bankroll, I tend to be extremely conservative with betting in relationship to BR (RoR). Now, I do realize that you are talking 'trip' bankroll here. But with a max bet of $200 and a trip BR of $3000-$4000, you are talking about 15-20 max bets. That is not a lot. Translation: high RoR.

Now one thing you have going for you that you are not placing this max bet until a relatively late TC of +6, which means you will not be placing it very often. That ALMOST makes it as if your max bet is the $120 amount placed at TC +4, which is going to help some. If it were me, I would go ahead and make that $120 wager @ TC +4, my max bet. That would give you 25-30 max bets total, which is a little less risky. Of course the downside, is lower winrate and expectation. I would just hate the thought of losing a few $200 max bet hands with splits and doubledowns and wiping out your bankroll early in the trip. Then you are forced to sit around and play penny slots for 4-5 days. Yuk!

Just some thoughts. Good luck with your trip and again, welcome.

Edit: Having just read your trip report, I see that you do have access to very good rules, including S17 at your local casino or wherever that first trip report was (lucky you). But you aren't going to find those $5 and $10 S17 games in Vegas, so still your use of Wong's numbers and expectation for your upcoming trip should be tempered town.

Quote: Romes

Thanks AOS! I look forward to you burning AC down =P.

AC doesn't need any help burning down :-(

Hi Romes. I'm looking forward to your future posts. One point of concern. Going to two hands with a 1-10 spread on double deck games is going to get you noticed even at the red chip level. If you want to play two hands you would be better off starting the shoe doing so. You can always drop one. You mentioned El Cortez. Usually that type of play will drastically curtail your visit there. They won't even bother to evaluate your game.

Why the early spread to two hands in shoe games? Are you considering the number of players at the table?

Quote: kewlj

Edit: Having just read your trip report, I see that you do have access to very good rules, including S17 at your local casino or wherever that first trip report was (lucky you). But you aren't going to find those $5 and $10 S17 games in Vegas, so still your use of Wong's numbers and expectation for your upcoming trip should be tempered town.

It is basically silly to even go to Vegas and expect to play BJ. I think a better plan of action is to play at home with the great rules and build a nice vacation bankroll. When getting to Vegas either take a shot at a good game which will be a higher limit or just have fun and leave the gambling to home. From what I read, you can find good games in vegas but don't expect to walk into a strip casino and find it.

OP, have you been backed off anywhere? If you are going to play at 1 place in Vegas there is a real possibility that you may experience your first. If you notice, a lot of players on here talk about playing super short sessions and not 2-3 hours at 1 time.

Quote: kewlj

First, Stanford Wong and Professional Blackjack... PBJ is an outstanding reference book, BUT it is now outdated. Mostly because of the dealer hit soft 17 rule, which was not in existence when the book was published, but is almost universal now... Instead of the game being break even at a true count of +1, break even comes closer to +1.5. @ TC +2, you will have roughly a .25% rather than .5% and so on and so forth on down the line. This means that all numbers, winrates and expectations will be lower (unless you have already accounted for this difference).

Second thing I have an issue with is your proposed bet spread in relationship to bankroll.

Thanks for the feedback! For a quick note, the "benchmark" I posted isn't the exact calculations for the games I plan to play. I am accounting for the particular games, their rules (H17), etc. This was more to get the ball rolling as the actual calculations aren't that far off from this.

Also, I know the 1-20 is a bit high with my bankroll. Indeed it is a trip bankroll, which is why I'm planning on sticking mostly to DD. I have plenty of options from my last few trips that I found, so I realistically expect to play mostly DD. Between this expectation and breaking out the max bet a TC later, I'm hoping this won't lead to any unfortunate wipe outs early!

Quote: 1BB

Hi Romes. I'm looking forward to your future posts. One point of concern. Going to two hands with a 1-10 spread on double deck games is going to get you noticed even at the red chip level. If you want to play two hands you would be better off starting the shoe doing so. You can always drop one. You mentioned El Cortez. Usually that type of play will drastically curtail your visit there. They won't even bother to evaluate your game.

Why the early spread to two hands in shoe games? Are you considering the number of players at the table?

Hey 1BB, thanks for the response. I have a few reasons why I like to do this. I do sometimes start the shoe at 2 hands to keep that more as my "norm" and try to have less suspicion. I also like to spread to 2 hands earlier because it doesn't look like I'm spreading to 2 hands with max bets. I like to spread to 2 hands the moment I hit my first raised bet on my spread. This 'usually' seems to slightly lessen the heat from going to 2 hands because I'm doing so with relatively small bets. In fact, most places MAKE you play double the min when going to 2 hands, so it doesn't even look like I'm raising my bet at that point - just following their rules ;). I'll even try to play them both for min and make the dealer tell me I have to play for more, then seem slightly upset about it! Then if I keep upping my bet I can play it off as rage betting =p. Also, as you mentioned, I try to control the number of players by controlling more spots. My local joints can get quite full and it isn't really possibly to find a table to myself.

I don't think there's much of anything that can save me at El Cortez other than short sessions and a prayer =P.

Quote: GWAE

When getting to Vegas either take a shot at a good game which will be a higher limit or just have fun and leave the gambling to home. From what I read, you can find good games in vegas but don't expect to walk into a strip casino and find it.

OP, have you been backed off anywhere? If you are going to play at 1 place in Vegas there is a real possibility that you may experience your first. If you notice, a lot of players on here talk about playing super short sessions and not 2-3 hours at 1 time.

I 'kind of' agree. I've actually got a small list myself of a bunch of places I'm looking to play (and have called around to verify the games are still there from the last time I was in Vegas about a year ago). This is why I'm considering my friend's proposal to add to my bankroll. I might be able to go to quarters and really stick to DD games so my max bet wouldn't really change (1-8, 25-200). As mentioned by kewlj 200 is a little sketchy for my current bankroll (if I end up playing a lot of 6D), but I'm planning to commit $4k, and if he puts in $2k, that would make the 200 max bet a lot better for a trip - 30 big bets.

Oddly enough I haven't 'officially' been back offed anywhere. Between my red chips, ploppy act, and me jumping off a table when I start getting serious heat I've managed to avoid it I guess? Last time I was in Vegas was when I was doing well at a DD game and I had the PB on the phone pointing directly at me at the table. Clearly I was about to get backed off, but I decided to duck out with my winnings. I plan to have this cherry popped by the El Cortez, which most feel is a right of passage for counters =).

i finally got a chance to read this thread. Although we already have a PM dialog going, let me publicly say, not merely 'welcome', but you seem like you'll be a valued member here. WELCOME!

Quote: Romes

I plan to have this cherry popped by the El Cortez, which most feel is a right of passage for counters =).

I wouldn't know, but that made me chuckle. Good luck with that.

Romes - I am looking forward to your LV TR — will you post photos again? I know it's tough to post pics and disguise the shops but I hope you do.

Hear, hear! Plenty of photos please Romes. And some random non-Blackjack stories too.

I should actually follow suit and post a TR of Crown in Melbourne. If you're keen for a laugh, check out their 'Blackjack Plus' rules (dealer pushes on 22 in exchange for a few baby carrots our way).

Quote: Uranium235

Hear, hear! Plenty of photos please Romes. And some random non-Blackjack stories too.

I should actually follow suit and post a TR of Crown in Melbourne. If you're keen for a laugh, check out their 'Blackjack Plus' rules (dealer pushes on 22 in exchange for a few baby carrots our way).

A few years ago someone told me that in Australia you play out your entire hand before the dealer gets any cards, or maybe it was just the 2nd card. I always thought that was weird since they could pull a blackjack on you and you lose yours doubles and splits.

It's not that bad. I only ever play at Crown in Melbourne or Star in Sydney but in both cases the 'original and busted bets only' rule applies. In other words, we don't have a hole card (dealer has one card only) but if you double; you only lose half your total stake if the dealer gets Blackjack. However, you do indeed lose all your cash if you split and bust which would be impossible in an American casino that peeks for Blackjack.

Incidentally folks, if you're planning a trip, Crown is H17 (unless you're in a very high limit room) and Star is still S17 everywhere. Wizard posted a good article on his Aussie trip.

Sorry Romes for taking this thread on a tangent.

Cheers

Quote: aceofspades

Romes - I am looking forward to your LV TR — will you post photos again? I know it's tough to post pics and disguise the shops but I hope you do.

Absolutely! I think this is something I learned from your TR's. The photo's make it much more real time and exciting. I'll be trying to get as many photo's as I can, and if I'm not at an off the beat shop I probably won't mind as much about the locations since Vegas is definitely not my regular turf (although I feel at home when I go there =p).

Quote: Uranium235

Hear, hear! Plenty of photos please Romes. And some random non-Blackjack stories too.

Done! I wasn't sure if people enjoyed the random non-BJ stories. My brother and I are planning on going to a couple clubs since we didn't have time on our last few days pass through of Vegas for our cousin's wedding. Should make for some interesting stories =D.

Quote: GWAE

A few years ago someone told me that in Australia you play out your entire hand before the dealer gets any cards, or maybe it was just the 2nd card. I always thought that was weird since they could pull a blackjack on you and you lose yours doubles and splits.

Sounds Euro style maybe? Euro style the dealer only takes an up card to start and draws their 2nd card after everyone has played their hands. Someone from the area would be more fluent on their games but I've frequently read that Euro style you lose all of your doubles/etc when the dealer pulls a second card blackjack =/. I don't see how the game would really even be playable if the dealer had NO cards. How are you supposed to make your decisions at that point?

Quote: Romes

I don't see how the game would really even be playable if the dealer had NO cards. How are you supposed to make your decisions at that point?

yeah that basically sounded silly when I said it but I left it there. hmmm maybe that could be a new game invention.

Quote: GWAE

yeah that basically sounded silly when I said it but I left it there. hmmm maybe that could be a new game invention.

Perhaps, but probably not one that I'd play (always have to crunch the numbers to be sure) =).

Quote: GWAE

yeah that basically sounded silly when I said it but I left it there. hmmm maybe that could be a new game invention.

Way too late for that one. Pontoon

When is the trip report coming Romes? Looking forward to some pics...

Quote: Uranium235

When is the trip report coming Romes? Looking forward to some pics...

Haha working on the opening post now!