AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19144
August 8th, 2014 at 5:25:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

I was watching this video on Youtube.

It had me questioning two statements, wondering if they were true? Perhaps somebody with more knowledge could answer them for me.

First: At 4:42 he says that if your 16 is composed of 3 small cards that you should stand as you have just taken small cards from the deck.

Second: At 6:07 he says that if you got an 18 on every hand that you would always be a loser. This I would be more likely to believe, just curious the math behind it.

Let me know what ya'll think.

Both are correct.

The index of 16v10 is 0, so you should stand at any positive or neutral count. If you are not counting, then all you have to go on are the cards in front of you. 3 small cards + 1 big card (the dealer's 10) is a RC of +2, so it's a stand. Personally, I would not worry about composition dependent basic strategy in a shoe game -- it's almost worthless. Either count, or just play total-dependent basic strategy.

As for 18, you would not "always" be a loser (you would win some hands) but 18 has -EV against a random dealer hand, so you would lose in the long term. 19 is the first total that is +EV against random dealer cards.

Of course, 18 is +EV against some dealer up cards, but, overall, it's a net loser.

Are you 100% sure if you started out with a 18 every time and the dealer played his hand out (dealer stands soft 17) its - EV? Or is this with the assumption the average hand is 19 therefor 18 would be a loser? But does this take in the fact during actual play considering you would NEVER BUST but now the dealer would?

When I was younger I had this proposition presented to me from a friend and experienced counter when I was first learning. For fun I took it thinking I cant bust and crushed him (probably got lucky) .

Is there a BJ simulator that can be set up where the player start with 18 and the dealer plays the hands out?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Kellynbnf
Joined: May 5, 2010
• Posts: 192
August 8th, 2014 at 5:26:10 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

Interesting that one of the miss played hands he talks about is soft 18 against a 9 or 10. He correctly points out that alot of people stand but you should hit. However he doesn't include soft 18 against an ace. It's correct to hit that one too. Maybe it's because standing on soft 18 against an ace is correct for single deck when the dealer stands on soft 17 but come on, does single deck s17 exist anywhere? Maybe 6:5, but the basic strategy I use for 6:5 is to keep walking.

In any S17 game soft 18 vs. A is a borderline play (in both the single-deck game like you mentioned and multi-deck games the best play is composition-dependent - BS charts are usually based on the two-card A7 hand). This hand is like 16 vs. 10 (but much less common) - a very close decision that can vary depending on what cards you have. (Note that in H17 games this hand is decidedly a hit because it's less likely the dealer will finish with 17.)
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
• Posts: 5339
August 8th, 2014 at 6:05:29 AM permalink
Axiom is correct. Eighteen is a losing hand. If you were dealt 18 on every hand, the house would have about a 0.6% advantage. Break even is 18.5.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
• Posts: 1953
August 8th, 2014 at 9:19:00 AM permalink
There is BJ side bet that is a player always having a 18. Instant 18
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
August 8th, 2014 at 11:28:57 AM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

Interesting that one of the miss played hands he talks about is soft 18 against a 9 or 10. He correctly points out that alot of people stand but you should hit. However he doesn't include soft 18 against an ace. It's correct to hit that one too. Maybe it's because standing on soft 18 against an ace is correct for single deck when the dealer stands on soft 17 but come on, does single deck s17 exist anywhere? Maybe 6:5, but the basic strategy I use for 6:5 is to keep walking.

There are single deck S17 3:2 games at my local casino.

Restrictive doubling and no resplitting or DAS give it a small house edge.
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
August 8th, 2014 at 11:43:48 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Are you 100% sure if you started out with a 18 every time and the dealer played his hand out (dealer stands soft 17) its - EV? Or is this with the assumption the average hand is 19 therefor 18 would be a loser? But does this take in the fact during actual play considering you would NEVER BUST but now the dealer would?

When I was younger I had this proposition presented to me from a friend and experienced counter when I was first learning. For fun I took it thinking I cant bust and crushed him (probably got lucky) .

Is there a BJ simulator that can be set up where the player start with 18 and the dealer plays the hands out?

This is absolutely true. You got suckered.

Why would you take a bet from someone who obviously knew what he was doing when you didn't know the math behind it?
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
August 8th, 2014 at 11:45:49 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

There is BJ side bet that is a player always having a 18. Instant 18

I was looking for that but couldn't find it.

Wizard: Is there a reason that this has its own page, rather than being listed in the index with all the other blackjack side bets?

Funnily enough, Grosjean suggested that a casino should offer this bet in the original Beyond Counting. I guess someone at the casino read the book.
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19144
August 8th, 2014 at 12:00:35 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This is absolutely true. You got suckered.

Why would you take a bet from someone who obviously knew what he was doing when you didn't know the math behind it?

Because i was 21 and it was fun in a social setting. It's like playing craps or whatever.

possibly the same reason you smoke cigars.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19144
August 8th, 2014 at 12:08:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This is absolutely true. You got suckered.

Why would you take a bet from someone who obviously knew what he was doing when you didn't know the math behind it?

I was told it was not a good bet prior so I don't consider it being suckered. I just wanted to play it with him. It was not like he brought it up to con me we were practicing BJ and I got an 18 and i said something about it and he explained it was not a good starting hand.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012