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Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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May 30th, 2014 at 2:16:57 PM permalink
" I know I do it whenever I lose - I feel I am undeserving of good things when I lose. "

About as good a definition of a LOSER as I have ever read !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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May 30th, 2014 at 4:17:25 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

You know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot. Earlier in my career, on another site, when I was still a little more emotional about the big swings, I posted about a particularly difficult downswing. One of the "math guys" responded just as you have above. Formulas and equations and estimated guesses at SD and came to the conclusion that the streak I had just experienced was likely to occur about 1.5% of the time. I never got how that helped me? It just did happen. I WAS that 1.5% of the time. (some body has to be). It just didn't make me feel any better knowing that what I just experienced was rare and unlikely. My bankroll was still down just the same.

Now figuring out the likelihood of such a losing period BEFORE hand or BEFORE a trip, that could be useful. Could help you prepare and determine what funds to bring. But AFTER the fact? I just don't see that as useful. Maybe you math guys just can't help yourselves. :)



It is interesting how 2 people can experience the exact same thing, and yet have 2 completely different views on what happened.
I can see why you may not have cared for the math analysis, and yet, to me, it was educational and provided support.
The way I looked at it, the money was gone. But knowing how unlucky, or unlikely it was to happen, helped me to realize it was more of a fluke.

Now, knowing you have a 9% chance of a loss like this I would find very important going forward
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 30th, 2014 at 4:36:52 PM permalink
Quote: Kewlj

You know I never liked this type of thing after the fact, teliot.

Barfarkel seemed to like it. He shared such statistics for every trip he made in his book "You've Got Heat!" Some do, some don't. I am on your side here, I never did this for my own trips. But AoS repeatedly expressed astonishment at how badly his trip went. Maybe these numbers will help sober him up a bit.
www.advancedadvantageplay.com
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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May 30th, 2014 at 4:39:54 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

It is interesting how 2 people can experience the exact same thing, and yet have 2 completely different views on what happened.
I can see why you may not have cared for the math analysis, and yet, to me, it was educational and provided support.
The way I looked at it, the money was gone. But knowing how unlucky, or unlikely it was to happen, helped me to realize it was more of a fluke.

Now, knowing you have a 9% chance of a loss like this I would find very important going forward



To be fair, most 3rd parties probably appreciate the info. But waiting a bit longer to point it out might have been better for Ace. Not like he needs to know the math now. It's just as useful to him a couple days before his next trip. But then again, I think he was talking about going to AC this weekend...
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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May 30th, 2014 at 4:57:34 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

To be fair, most 3rd parties probably appreciate the info. But waiting a bit longer to point it out might have been better for Ace. Not like he needs to know the math now. It's just as useful to him a couple days before his next trip. But then again, I think he was talking about going to AC this weekend...




Indeed the information is interesting and educational--to know I had a less than 10% chance at what happened makes me feel warm
and fuzzy about accomplishing what only happens less than 10% of the time LOL



I am in AC

Just played ½ shoe picked up 1k

(Mods feel free to break off this AC portion if you feel it is not keeping with the title of the thread)
Mikey75
Mikey75
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
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May 30th, 2014 at 11:58:27 PM permalink
Hope your luck changes in AC!!
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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May 31st, 2014 at 12:15:52 AM permalink
Ahhhhh, so the magical comeback will happen in AC. Just stay away from Mario or you are screwed.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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May 31st, 2014 at 8:19:11 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

Indeed the information is interesting and educational--to know I had a less than 10% chance at what happened makes me feel warm
and fuzzy about accomplishing what only happens less than 10% of the time LOL



I am in AC

Just played ½ shoe picked up 1k

(Mods feel free to break off this AC portion if you feel it is not keeping with the title of the thread)



Wow, was that ever a lot to catch up with! I don't see any point, btw, in splitting this off NOW, though you're certainly welcome to start a new AoS in AC thread. You asked for my impressions:

I would say that, in all, you are very well cared about here by nearly everybody, even the sarcastic guy-jabs you got here and there. I think you are a great guy, and disarmingly honest, especially when someone gives you a jab or a shot, and you just smile it away with a disarming reply, to your credit. Most everything said was with the best intentions, and it appears you mostly took it that way, again to your credit.

I think that Dicenor bought one, correctly, and mickeycrimm, much as I love him, got away with one (with Missions' help - as I have also been guilty of providing a couple of times). Buzz also was correct in his self-implication but appears to still be in blue.

The part that has me concerned is the emotional involvement with the bad streaks (and, from other threads, the good streaks) that make you a virtual bi-polar player. I hate that, when it's going badly for you, there's a trigger point that tilts, chasing your losses into ruination. Some kind of sanity check mechanism might be in order, though there are those that disagree and want to carry a large BR. You can't. I did this to myself, and I would recommend it for you. Leave the money you're not willing to lose TODAY in the room safe, along with all your credit cards. Don't ever call the bank again. Allow yourself an ATM card with a low limit, like 1010 (to cover the service charge), and carry that to allow your tilt ONE LAST CHANCE; then you're done for that day, no matter what.
Might help smooth things out without totally frustrating your situation.

More in PM.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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May 31st, 2014 at 9:52:05 AM permalink
" Buzz also was correct in his self-implication but appears to still be in blue."

Babs darling, you know I always say don't take it personal. Why would I ever be suspended for pointing out the obvious? If Ace chooses to be a LOSER, that is his inalienable right.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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May 31st, 2014 at 10:46:45 AM permalink
I heard it came up somewhere in this 46-page thread that Ace lost to a 9-card dealer 21. Does anyone recall the number of decks and whether the dealer hit or stood on a soft 17? Here is a table for the probability of a 9-card dealer 21 by various sets of rules.

Decks S17 H17
1 1 in 278,315,855 1 in 214,136,889
2 1 in 67,291,581 1 in 41,838,903
4 1 in 38,218,703 1 in 22,756,701
6 1 in 32,178,035 1 in 18,980,158
8 1 in 29,749,421 1 in 17,394,420
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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