Can you help me find the appropriate analysis - bankroll vs risk of ruin to win a certain amount
April 24th, 2014 at 4:09:41 PM
permalink
Not sure if this is a "risk of ruin" analysis, or something more complicated...
Let's say I wanted to play each blackjack session at $500/hand until I met the goal of winning $1000, or until I busted through a certain loss amount, $X. That is, I would continue to play (perfect basic strategy, let's assume) until I won the $1000 or until I lost $X.
Is there a way to calculate for any X what percentage of times would I meet the $1000 goal before busting out?
For instance, I'd like to be able to calculate for X=$20K, that I have a 95.4% likelihood reaching 1K before losing $20K? Or a 35.3% likelihood of hitting the goal before busting if X=$5K?
Thanks in advance for any pointers.
Let's say I wanted to play each blackjack session at $500/hand until I met the goal of winning $1000, or until I busted through a certain loss amount, $X. That is, I would continue to play (perfect basic strategy, let's assume) until I won the $1000 or until I lost $X.
Is there a way to calculate for any X what percentage of times would I meet the $1000 goal before busting out?
For instance, I'd like to be able to calculate for X=$20K, that I have a 95.4% likelihood reaching 1K before losing $20K? Or a 35.3% likelihood of hitting the goal before busting if X=$5K?
Thanks in advance for any pointers.
April 24th, 2014 at 4:23:37 PM
permalink
Quote: jarvisNot sure if this is a "risk of ruin" analysis, or something more complicated...
Let's say I wanted to play each blackjack session at $500/hand until I met the goal of winning $1000, or until I busted through a certain loss amount, $X. That is, I would continue to play (perfect basic strategy, let's assume) until I won the $1000 or until I lost $X.
Is there a way to calculate for any X what percentage of times would I meet the $1000 goal before busting out?
For instance, I'd like to be able to calculate for X=$20K, that I have a 95.4% likelihood reaching 1K before losing $20K? Or a 35.3% likelihood of hitting the goal before busting if X=$5K?
Thanks in advance for any pointers.
The first number appears correct. For a rough estimate, calculate the numbers the way you did. The second number appears wrong, the percentage should be much higher.
