A huge card counting myth
Quote: teliotThis is false logic. There is no reason that being an AP is something that someone should want to do, for any reason.
Talk about false logic. Are you saying there is no worse way of earning an HONEST living ? ? ?
My quote did not have the right punctuation for the point I was making.Quote: BuzzardTalk about false logic. Are you saying there is no worse way of earning an HONEST living ? ? ?
Most APs argue that if you had the skill and ability to beat casinos, then the best possible life you could have would be to exercise that skill by actually beating casinos. What could possibly be better? More righteous? More fun? Who wouldn't want to beat a casino? I find these to be false conclusions.
Ability does not drive desire.
How can you simultaneously claim that AP play is easy, and that you are not very good at it?
I think that we all know that things like edge sorting and spotting hole cards are actually quite difficult, and most people don't have the skills to accomplish them. The dealer flashing the hole card every hand is worth exactly $0 per hand if you can't see it and decipher it in the short amount of time that it's visible.
The part I wasn't good at was losing money. This kept me from betting big enough for it to be meaningful money. But the skill part, I could do that.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHow can you simultaneously claim that AP play is easy, and that you are not very good at it?
Quote: teliotThe part I wasn't good at was losing money. This kept me from betting big enough for it to be meaningful money. But the skill part, I could do that.
This is one of the most foolish statements you have ever made. Almost ANYBODY can learn the different skills of AP. And betting big money is pretty darn easy when you are winning. Having the balls and mindset to continue to bet big money when you have an advantage and you are losing IS the hard part.
I have endured 6 month losing periods several times in the last few years. Last year I started the year with 15 weeks of losing and was in the red 32 grand a third of the way thru the year. Losing day after day, week after week, weeks stretching into months, wake up in the morning and then lay more big bucks on the line when called for. Mental Toughness. That IS the 'skill' of advantage play. That is the part that separates the men from the boys. The 'skill' you are referring to is just math....and not even difficult math. It's grade school math. Don't pat yourself on the back, because you got that part of it.
I will qualify that by saying that in your opinion, its one of the most foolish statements of mine that you have ever read. I've done much better, IMHO.Quote: kewljThis is one of the most foolish statements you have ever made.
The paradox is that I seem to be able to handle significant paper losses. My house dropped in value over $200k in 2009. That hurt, but not as much as losing $6000 in one day hole-carding three card poker (that happened in 2005).
Quote: kewljThis is one of the most foolish statements you have ever made. Almost ANYBODY can learn the different skills of AP. And betting big money is pretty darn easy when you are winning. Having the balls and mindset to continue to bet big money when you have an advantage and you are losing IS the hard part.
I have endured 6 month losing periods several times in the last few years. Last year I started the year with 15 weeks of losing and was in the red 32 grand a third of the way thru the year. Losing day after day, week after week, weeks stretching into months, wake up in the morning and then lay more big bucks on the line when called for. Mental Toughness. That IS the 'skill' of advantage play. That is the part that separates the men from the boys. The 'skill' you are referring to is just math....and not even difficult math. It's grade school math. Don't pat yourself on the back, because you got that part of it.
Well, here's my situation.
I have no trouble putting the money on the line. It's probably not really mental toughness -- it's just that I have a day job where I make pretty good money so it's not like my livelihood depends on this. If I lose 32 grand I'm not going to be happy about it, but I also am not going to lose any sleep over it. I trust the math, I know how to figure out what levels I should be betting at based on how much money I'm willing to risk, so if I have the edge I'm good. I know I'll get it back, and I'm in no rush because I don't NEED the money.
The math, as you point out, it pretty simple. It is mostly simple arithmetic. No problems there. I can also write simulations to figure out if I have an edge in obscure situations (eg, games that have not been analyzed elsewhere, or at least where that analysis is not publicly available. I've done this before).
The hard part, for me, is having the skill to take advantage of these profitable situations which are apparently so easy to find if you just want to learn.
Hole-carding: I get it. The dealer exposes a card that you aren't supposed to see, you see it, and you have a huge edge if the game is right. I get it. However, the dealer flashing the card is worthless if you can't see it. I've yet to find a dealer who will hold it up for 15 seconds while you make sure that you know what it is. In reality, it flashes by in an instant. The most I can make out is the color; occasionally the suit. I'm sure that there are people with better eyes than mine who will be able to tell me the rank, suit, and whether the face of the card is a little dirty, but that doesn't really help me, because I can't do it. Someone will have to explain to me what is "easy" about this.
Then, there's edge sorting. Again, I get it. The problem is, I've yet to encounter a casino that does not incorporate a turn into their shuffling procedure, so this is completely useless to me. Even if this was possible, and even if I could see the differences between the edges on the cards (I can't), I have no idea how to edge sort a deck in a game like MS stud, where I get to touch 2 cards each hand before they go back into the shuffler. Again, I don't think that "easy" describes this.
Card counting, on the other hand, really is easy. You get to see all the cards. You keep track of one number, and bet and play accordingly. The cards that you need to see are on display for half a minute or so, not a tiny fraction of a second. You have a small edge, but that edge is available at whatever limits you choose to bet, and whenever you want -- not only when the incompetent dealer is working. I don't understand why 1% is a "small" edge for me, but it's a fine edge for the house to make millions dealing baccarat, even after they pay for players' rooms and food and drinks and flights and god knows what else.
Of course, if I can see the hole card, I'll play appropriately, but if I can't, I can't.
Quote: teliotMy quote did not have the right punctuation for the point I was making.
Most APs argue that if you had the skill and ability to beat casinos, then the best possible life you could have would be to exercise that skill by actually beating casinos. What could possibly be better? More righteous? More fun? Who wouldn't want to beat a casino? I find these to be false conclusions.
Ability does not drive desire.
I thought that's what you probably meant. I have know too many hustlers who would have been much better off playing it straight.
But the lure of illicit money is just too damn appealing.
No charge for putting you on the proper path..... This time !
Quote: kewljLast year I started the year with 15 weeks of losing and was in the red 32 grand a third of the way thru the year. Losing day after day, week after week, weeks stretching into months, wake up in the morning and then lay more big bucks on the line when called for.
Not to get too far off topic, but how did you learn to deal with the losing streaks? That was always one of my biggest problems—dealing with the inevitable (extended) losing streaks.
Too bad we can't just win all the time...lol
+1000Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: teliotYes, I understand that. No problem.Quote: AcesAndEightsAll I ask is that you acknowledge some of us understand what you are saying and continue to pursue BJCC due to a variety of circumstances.
Where I am coming from is that there is no reason to count cards, none whatsoever, if any opportunity better than card counting exists in the very same casino the person is playing at. At almost every casino in the world, something much better exists. The only thing that separates most card counters from significantly more profit is the desire to learn. So, most APs begin and end their lives with card counting. That's great news for the casino industry. I give seminars on methods that most of the casinos will never see used against them. But the industry is hungry to learn and be current with today's vulnerabilities. I enjoy working with people who are hungry for knowledge. On the other hand, I have no idea why intelligent APs who have the ability to study and practice would choose such a low grade tool when it is so easy to do better.
I think that's disingenuous. You know full well that it's not so easy; that's why you work for the other side. If being an AP was so easy you would still be one (you've said several times that you were not very good at it). I don't understand how you can talk about how easy it is, while at the same time saying that you can't do it yourself.
Quote: teliotThe part I wasn't good at was losing money. This kept me from betting big enough for it to be meaningful money. But the skill part, I could do that.
That was the problem you didn't have the skill to find Low risk high reward plays and your knowledge was limited and you probably lacked creativity. You couldn't adapt to the situation you had.
You say GOOD good advantage players. Yet they are not playing something right under there nose, therefor they may not be good advantage players. I guarantee, who ever you think the best advantage player is, not even he knows every good advantage play. You probably only know or understand 30% whats going on. You only think you know what good advantage players are doing. You just need to convince and casinos you know what you are doing. Good advantage players keep there information away from you and other darkies. Before I or you die and things are long gone, I will prove it to you.
Those who can't do, teach/consult.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
Hole-carding: I get it. The dealer exposes a card that you aren't supposed to see, you see it, and you have a huge edge if the game is right. I get it. However, the dealer flashing the card is worthless if you can't see it. I've yet to find a dealer who will hold it up for 15 seconds while you make sure that you know what it is. In reality, it flashes by in an instant. The most I can make out is the color; occasionally the suit. I'm sure that there are people with better eyes than mine who will be able to tell me the rank, suit, and whether the face of the card is a little dirty, but that doesn't really help me, because I can't do it. Someone will have to explain to me what is "easy" about this.
Holecarding is dealer dependent. I wear glasses and had a pair made with corrected vision at 4 feet. It was like that last click on a microscope that brings things into focus. I've also played with people with excellent vision for the task at hand. We've played dealers that you could get standing up in the middle of the aisle between the 2 rows of tables. I've also enhanced dealers by placing a drink just close enough to the Shufflemaster where the dealer would change her motion from good to fantastic but not so close she would ask me to move it. Short heavy dealers were the best and Asian females were a high percentage play. Many people failed at holecarding 3CP because they played poor games where they'd make an error or two and miss a card or two every hour and think the game was still great. We played dealers where there were no missed cards and we made no errors. The people I know that paid attention to this beat the game for big numbers before the casinos adjusted. The people that played crap because the dealer flashed once or twice and they sat there hoping the dealer would return to that good form got slaughtered. Good lighting was also key as was running to the bathroom and using a neutral eye lubricant like Bausch & Lomb Natural Tears when the dealer was on break. The cards made a big difference too. Some cards were easy to get, other casinos used cards with small or narrow indexes that were very hard to get. We played many games where both the dealer and relief were good. We took a break when a relief wasn't playable and didn't think "It was only 20 minutes and we could make up for it when the regular came back". You needed just about a perfect game and had to play perfectly. We saw many, many people playing dealers who were not playable.
+1Quote: anonimussHolecarding is dealer dependent. I wear glasses and had a pair made with corrected vision at 4 feet. It was like that last click on a microscope that brings things into focus. I've also played with people with excellent vision for the task at hand. We've played dealers that you could get standing up in the middle of the aisle between the 2 rows of tables. I've also enhanced dealers by placing a drink just close enough to the Shufflemaster where the dealer would change her motion from good to fantastic but not so close she would ask me to move it. Short heavy dealers were the best and Asian females were a high percentage play. Many people failed at holecarding 3CP because they played poor games where they'd make an error or two and miss a card or two every hour and think the game was still great. We played dealers where there were no missed cards and we made no errors. The people I know that paid attention to this beat the game for big numbers before the casinos adjusted. The people that played crap because the dealer flashed once or twice and they sat there hoping the dealer would return to that good form got slaughtered. Good lighting was also key as was running to the bathroom and using A neutral eye lubricant like Bausch & Lomb Natural Tears when the dealer was on break. We played many games where both the dealer and relief were good. We took a break when a relief wasn't playable and didn't think "It was only 20 minutes and we could make up for it when the regular came back". You needed just about a perfect game and had to play perfectly. We saw many, many people playing dealers who were not playable.
+1Quote: IbeatyouracesWhat's that old saying. "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em."
