What is the probability
3:2
Das
Double on any two card's
One card after aces split
Split aces once
H17
Split up to 4 times
No surrender
6 deck
No less than 75% pen, no more than 85%, I would say averaging around 82% pen
Quote: arcticfunIt's unlikely, but that's the nature of negative variance. High counts benefit the player more, but that doesn't mean that they always kill the dealer. Look on the bright side - when dealer had BJ, at least you didn't have to pay him 3:2.
Very true and I know it just benefits me more it was just unreal watching it unfold rc is +7 or +8 with less than 2 decks to play and dealer draws three 4 card 21's in a row. Just wasn't my night...every other time the tc was around +3 dealer would inevitably pull a blackjack on me.
Just tryin' to keep it light; someone else should be along with a more definite answer. :)
Quote: rob45I prefer not to state an answer in numerical form, but I do have what I believe to be an accurate answer: "It happens more often than we would like."
Just tryin' to keep it light; someone else should be along with a more definite answer. :)
That it does, that it does. I should have walked away a shoe earlier...but it happens. It was a new casino to me and I wasn't expecting the penetration I was getting in the decks. And lower limits. At least I found that out and now know there is good tables at that casino.
Quote: TranscendI was playing blackjack last night and the tc was ranging between +1 and +4 with no more than 2-2.5 decks left at most, the dealer drew to 21 or had blackjack 6 out of 8 hands. What is the probability of that happening?
3:2
Das
Double on any two card's
One card after aces split
Split aces once
H17
Split up to 4 times
No surrender
6 deck
No less than 75% pen, no more than 85%, I would say averaging around 82% pen
This is not a particularly big deal. It depends how long you were playing for. The probability of seeing this on the next 8 hands is pretty low. The probability of eventually seeing it if you play a lot is pretty high.
Once I got a dealt royal flush at video poker. That's about a 1 in 650,000 event. So what? People who play lots of VP might get a few of these every year.
Quote: TranscendI was playing blackjack last night and the tc was ranging between +1 and +4 with no more than 2-2.5 decks left at most, the dealer drew to 21 or had blackjack 6 out of 8 hands. What is the probability of that happening?
3:2
Das
Double on any two card's
One card after aces split
Split aces once
H17
Split up to 4 times
No surrender
6 deck
No less than 75% pen, no more than 85%, I would say averaging around 82% pen
It's round-about 1/2500 that it will happen four times in a row at no particular count for 6D H17, I did a little math on it once after watching it happen to the table after wonging out. My guess is around 1/3500 for your situation. It is going to happen. As one poster said, the probability you will see something like this is high if you are going to play long enough, despite the low probability it is going to occur on any particular series.
Quote: arcticfunIt's unlikely, but that's the nature of negative variance. High counts benefit the player more, but that doesn't mean that they always kill the dealer. Look on the bright side - when dealer had BJ, at least you didn't have to pay him 3:2.
Totally would not cheer me up. If someone at the table told me I didn't have to pay the dealer 3:2 while on a massive cold streak, I would become hostile.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis is not a particularly big deal. It depends how long you were playing for. The probability of seeing this on the next 8 hands is pretty low. The probability of eventually seeing it if you play a lot is pretty high.
Once I got a dealt royal flush at video poker. That's about a 1 in 650,000 event. So what? People who play lots of VP might get a few of these every year.
I stayed for three shoes so it seemed unlikely, but thinking it from the standpoint of seeing it in the long run it really stands to reason I saw it.
Quote: BizzyBIt's round-about 1/2500 that it will happen four times in a row at no particular count for 6D H17, I did a little math on it once after watching it happen to the table after wonging out. My guess is around 1/3500 for your situation. It is going to happen. As one poster said, the probability you will see something like this is high if you are going to play long enough, despite the low probability it is going to occur on any particular series.
Thanks for the bit of math on it and I was just wondering because it seemed whenever the count was in my favor the dealer would have 21 or draw to it. I am sure it was just biased based on my observation because I wasn't really keeping track of how well I was doing in terms of hands.
