bet spread for $15 min? (8 deck)

8 deck (pen 75~80%)

No RSA

No Surrender

DAS

Double any two cards

Split up to 4 cards

H17

I have a bankroll of $5K.

What is the recommended bet spread for $15min?

Should it be $30 starting from TC 1 or 2?

Since my bankroll is low, would it be better if I wait until

TC3 to double the unit ?

It would be very helpful if someone can give me specific

bet amount for each TC. Thank you

I assume we are talking about recreational play here. So first question is what kind of risk do you want to assume? If you a willing to play full Kelly, with a RoR of 13%, you would bet $75 (rounded from 77) at an advantage of 2%, which is roughly a hi-lo TC of +5.

Rounding your advantage to 1/2%, per true count, and rounding the house advantage offset to 1/2%, Your optimal ramp would be:

TC +1 and below $15
TC +2. (1/2% advantage). $20
TC +3. (1% advantage). $35-40
TC +4 (1.5% advantage) $55-$60
TC +5 (2% advantage) $75

Now the problem, is a 1-5 spread (15-75) is not going to make you much profit, playing all, playing an 8 deck game. There are just too few +3 and above counts, when you have a little bit of advantage and way too many counts below TC +1, when you are playing at a disadvantage. (Not enough good counts to overcome the many many bad counts). You are going to have to get out of at least some of those negative counts. If not Wong out all together, at least take bathroom break or phone call or just sit out, if allowed, during some of those negative counts. Betting $0 during some of those negative counts will in effect lower your minimum wager, which will effectively increase your spread.

First of all. Thank you so much for your detailed answer.

Is it because of the low bankroll that you assumed that I was going to play recreational?

So if I would take more risk and try to get more effective advantage, what is the best bet spread?

I would want to make the bet spread 1~10 if its really necessary.

if I cant double the current bankroll, I should stop going to casino, which in fact is not a bad idea.

Do not take MORE risk. I don't even want you to take the 13.5% of full Kelly, but that is the optimal amount for growth assuming you are willing to risk the possibility of busting out and starting over. 13% is a lot of risk. Only a recreational players, who is not dependent on these funds for any aspect of his living expenses should consider playing at such a level. A pro plays at a RoR of less than 1%. This requires a very large bankroll.

Quote: gamingbler

First of all. Thank you so much for your detailed answer.

Is it because of the low bankroll that you assumed that I was going to play recreational?

So if I would take more risk and try to get more effective advantage, what is the best bet spread?

I would want to make the bet spread 1~10 if its really necessary.

if I cant double the current bankroll, I should stop going to casino, which in fact is not a bad idea.

Is $5000 your total bankroll or your trip bankroll? Can you find a game with better rules?

Well I have to do some direct deposits to make more bankrolls.

So I guess it is my total. Unfortunately I cant find any better rule around here.

Anyway.. it seems that I should somehow increase my bankroll at least twice much

to effectively play this game.

Quote: gamingbler

Well I have to do some direct deposits to make more bankrolls.

So I guess it is my total. Unfortunately I cant find any better rule around here.

Anyway.. it seems that I should somehow increase my bankroll at least twice much

to effectively play this game.

With that bankroll and those rules you might be able to spread $5 to $50 and break even, if you do as suggested and wong. I would not attempt it myself as I would want to spread more.

I realize that you asked about $15 minimums. For that you must do as you said and increase your bankroll.

I have found a similar game in my area (not in States) like above (8 decks, 75-80% pen.) but dealer stand soft 17 but only one split allowed and no hit or double to split aces. (standard house edge just under 0.5% according to some software analyzer)

Now my question would be to find out how to bet according to the TC (using Hi-Lo) for a bet spread of 1 to 16 ? And, would this be worthy (how worthy ?) if I am not going to wong out when bad counts, but only bet minimums instead ?

I`ll probably be able to apply full indexes, and maybe even play two hands at a time. - Around what number would be my Return of Investment after lets say 100.000 bets ? And what kind of bankroll I would need for a bet spread of 1 to 16 units (using full Kelly) ?

Quote: PlayHunter

I have found a similar game in my area (not in States) like above (8 decks, 75-80% pen.) but dealer stand soft 17 but only one split allowed and no hit or double to split aces. (standard house edge just under 0.5% according to some software analyzer)

Now my question would be to find out how to bet according to the TC (using Hi-Lo) for a bet spread of 1 to 16 ? And, would this be worthy (how worthy ?) if I am not going to wong out when bad counts, but only bet minimums instead ?

I`ll probably be able to apply full indexes, and maybe even play two hands at a time. - Around what number would be my Return of Investment after lets say 100.000 bets ? And what kind of bankroll I would need for a bet spread of 1 to 16 units (using full Kelly) ?

With no surrender the house edge on that game is 0.44686% according to the blackjack calculator on the Wizard of Odds site. The game is playable. You will need all of that 1-16 spread especially if you are going to "play all," that is no wonging. Betting ramps are not one size fits all. They consider things such as number of decks, number of players at the table, rules, wonging and hands per hour to name some.

Here's a fairly common 1-16 spread:

+1 or less bet 1unit
+2 - bet 2 units
+3 - bet 4 units
+4 - bet 8 units
+5 - bet 16 units

I don't like risk so my total bankroll is 200 max bets with a portion of that my trip bankroll. The trip bankroll varies with the trip. If your minimum bet is higher than the table minimum you can bet the table minimum in negative counts since you won't be wonging out. Remember, the table minimum doesn't figure into your spread. It actually seems like a form of wonging. Some counters spread to two hands at table minimum to eat cards during negative counts provided that the house allows both to be played at the minimum. The idea is that the shuffle or a positive count will occur sooner.

Your win rate is figured using the same things that I mentioned about betting ramps. Rather than casually toss out a 1.5 unit or 2 unit win per hour, I'll refer you to Qfit.com. Norm's Casino Verite software should cover this and answer most of your questions.

If I were to play this game, and that's a very big if, I would tweak things a little. With the dry spells in shoe games I would have my max bet out at TC +4. I would also spread as much as I possibly could get away with and would not want anything less than 1-20. What I want and what the pit wants are seldom the same and that is the cat and mouse part of the game.

Are your blackjack endeavors going to be recreational, part time or something more?

Thanks 1BB ! Your answers really do help me, yet made me ask some more questions: (probably because earlier I was not precise)

How frequently we see those counts for an 8 deck game with 75% pen. ? (ie.1 or less 90% ...+2>3 4% ... +5 or more 1%)

I thought that table minimum it is included in the (1 to 16 / 20) spread ?

Why one would bet the higher than minimum allowed when TC < 1 ? (other reasons than attracting pits attention)

Eating cards (playing 2 on spots) when in bad counts - is this strategy worthy if the table minimum is you minimum bet also ?

Also when the TC becomes good (say +5) which is better to play 16 units on a single spot or 8 units on two spots each ?

Hands per hour .... I`d say 90 (+/-10) ... but count on 100 if that is easier for a close approximation. (I can convert it later)

I am thinking at playing part time (2-3 hours a day) and if it proves to be worthy enough maybe 10 hours on Saturdays...

PS (edit to add): Maybe I can make it a 1- to 20 spread (table minimum being also my 1 unit bet), on a distribution like:

+1 or less bet 1unit
+2 - bet 2 units
+3 - bet 5 units
+4 - bet 10 units
+5 - bet 20 units

My total bankroll (barely) can support 4000 units. For each session I will take with me 200 units. -But if all this is only going to make me an overall profit of no more than 3 units per 100 hands played (?), I am not sure it is worth the bankroll I have to lock for this...

Quote: PlayHunter

Thanks 1BB ! Your answers really do help me, yet made me ask some more questions: (probably because earlier I was not precise)

How frequently we see those counts for an 8 deck game with 75% pen. ? (ie.1 or less 90% ...+2>3 4% ... +5 or more 1%)

I thought that table minimum it is included in the (1 to 16 / 20) spread ?

Why one would bet the higher than minimum allowed when TC < 1 ? (other reasons than attracting pits attention)

Eating cards (playing 2 on spots) when in bad counts - is this strategy worthy if the table minimum is you minimum bet also ?

Also when the TC becomes good (say +5) which is better to play 16 units on a single spot or 8 units on two spots each ?

Hands per hour .... I`d say 90 (+/-10) ... but count on 100 if that is easier for a close approximation. (I can convert it later)

I am thinking at playing part time (2-3 hours a day) and if it proves to be worthy enough maybe 10 hours on Saturdays...

PS (edit to add): Maybe I can make it a 1- to 20 spread (table minimum being also my 1 unit bet), on a distribution like:

+1 or less bet 1unit
+2 - bet 2 units
+3 - bet 5 units
+4 - bet 10 units
+5 - bet 20 units

My total bankroll (barely) can support 4000 units. For each session I will take with me 200 units. -But if all this is only going to make me an overall profit of no more than 3 units per 100 hands played (?), I am not sure it is worth the bankroll I have to lock for this...

You decide what your base bet will be and spread accordingly, within the limits of your bankroll. It can be whatever you wish as long as it falls between the table limits set by the casino. The following are all 1-16 spreads: $5-$80, $15-$240 and $25-$400. If my base bet is $25 I might be at a table with a minimum of $15 or even $10. Are $15 minimums the lowest at your casino or do the lower limits come with worse rules?

You shouldn't play in negative counts, rather wong out and let the other players eat the cards. If there were ever a game that calls for wonging, it is this one. The reason I don't like card eating strategies in shoe games is because you are always playing against the house edge which can grind you down in negative counts. Playing heads up, which is what I strive for, I play one hand to get more rounds. I'll spread to two or even three just before the shuffle to get deeper into a positive shoe. When others jump in or have been playing, I'll spread in positive shoes to get the blackjacks that will be coming.

To keep the terminology straight, a unit in your case is $15. That's a max bet of $300 using a 1-20 spread so a 200 unit bankroll is only 10 max bets and that is woefully insufficient. Will you give wonging some thought or is there a specific reason that you are not interested in it? Besides getting you out of negative counts, wonging will allow you to use a little less spread.

I hope you have a very large casino or are close to more than one because when you start taking their money you may no longer be able to play those two and three hour sessions in the same place.

1BB Thank you ! Yes, now I understand why you said that the base bet for your spread is not the same as table minimum - it is because you are probably always wonging. To answer your question, why I am personally against wonging, is because I find it personally disruptive. I like to have a coca cola with me sit down and not be interrupted. (not too talkactive, neighter totally quiet)

I was playing like this way from time to time, (with a bet spread of 1 to 8), sometimes won, sometimes lost but I never did it academically and never knew how much is my real win rate per 100 hands or what risk of ruin do I had.. it was more for fun.
It is only now when I am thinking to change the details a bit and take it under a serious approach if can be worthy and still fun.

About having a large casino, this might be a problem - it is not - and only few casinos around, none with better rules than this...

There are different ways to wong out. You can certainly sit out a few hands while remaining seated and enjoying your coke. Keep counting and be ready to reenter when and if the count rises. I'm assuming mid shoe entry is allowed. Every little bit helps.

Yes, mid shoe entries allowed. And yes for sure I can skip one round in negative counts from time to time while drinking my coke...

I am by no mean a pro, barely a casual recreational player who tends to play DD. I tend to Wong in different ways that may work for you.... Answering a phone call, responding to a text, or going to the restroom. Occasionally you may be able to make a comment that could work, such as if the dealer doesn't break and keeps making hands, pushing with good hands.. Things like that will make you seem superstitious... Casinos love superstitious players... Just some ideas that I have found work for me... Hope it helps, good luck and good variance in future endeavors.

Quote: Dreamer

I am by no mean a pro, barely a casual recreational player who tends to play DD. I tend to Wong in different ways that may work for you.... Answering a phone call, responding to a text, or going to the restroom. Occasionally you may be able to make a comment that could work, such as if the dealer doesn't break and keeps making hands, pushing with good hands.. Things like that will make you seem superstitious... Casinos love superstitious players... Just some ideas that I have found work for me... Hope it helps, good luck and good variance in future endeavors.

Did you happen to read my post in another thread about when I first got a cell phone? I used it to wong out only to have it ring in the middle of my fake conversation. A little red faced but no one was the wiser. Lesson learned.

Thanks Dreamer, yes the trick on commenting to seem superstitious and deliberately skip one hand at a time in negative counts I find it suitable for me. The part phone call, not, I always close my phone when going to a bj table..

I always keep my phone on vibrate to avoid that, but often rather than fake a phone call I will " check" who just called or texted me or make a comment about my wife not leaving me alone as I stand up and pull out my phone. As long as it takes enough time for the dealer to deal the next hand. Then I keep an eye on the cards and if it changes and i am able to come back in, some places will not allow you to come back in after you skip a hand, I will jump back in. Or if it continues to stay bad I will continue to stay out and say something to the affect of how it seems to be doing better without me in or the dealer just to hot right now, etc.