True BJ Assumption?

It's aggravating as hell to see the dealer get 21 when he started with a 6, even though much of the time you stand with squat and it only mattered that he bust or not.

It happens so often, though, that I am pretty convinced that 21 is the most likely thing for the dealer to hit *if* he doesn't bust, followed next by 20, then 19, etc.

Am I right?

No.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/2a/

I'll be more helpful: for 8 decks S17 the most likely non-bust total for a dealer, across all upcards, is 20, then 17,18,19, and last, 21.

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Quote: odiousgambit

...It happens so often, though, that I am pretty convinced that 21 is the most likely thing for the dealer to hit *if* he doesn't bust, followed next by 20, then 19, etc.

Am I right?

No. But once the dealer gets to a stiff total, 12 to 16, final dealer totals of 17 through 21 are equally likely (at least for the infinite-deck model.) For example, when the dealer has 16, the dealer could pull an A for 17, 2 for 18, 3 for 19, 4 for 20, or 5 for 21 with equal likelihoods.

thanks. Interesting.