What's your time worth? how to scale up?

So if you follow Wong's "benchmark" betting strategy ($10 for TC of <0, $25 - 0-1, $50 - 2, $75 - 3, $100 - >=4) the winning expectation is about $15-20 per hour depending on rules, with a st dev of around $450. And, you kind of need a $10k bankroll if you want to safely drop $100 bets. So my question: is y'all's time worth $20/hour? do you factor in fun and comps? Because if you were to do this seriously, I don't really think $20/h is enough. Does someone here have thoughts to share on "scaling up" and targeting $150/hr expected winnings?

I'm also curious how pooling a bankroll affects strategy. There are some accounts of team play out there, but the math isn't addressed all too much. If three people play and share a $15k BR, do they all play as though they had $5k or $15k? (ie, which BR would their bets and spreads reflect)? This isn't exactly the same thing as playing multiple hands with the same shoe due to covariance.

I've never winged out but when I started back in 95 I was wonging in. But had no knowledge of wong. That's also how my 22 day win streak started in 2009-2010 spanning 4 months. I wouldn't do it now.

As for your question, 20 an hour is not worth it in Vegas. At home, it's very reasonable. Looking at my most recent trip where I brought home 325 after a 250 slot and lir loss and lost 100 in football. 10 here. 20 at the airport. So 600ish win over about 11 hours was very pleasing even when the bottom line was about 30 an hour.

You can build your BR with small wins. They add up. This is what happened in 2009. I made a 20 bet that banked me 60 in 3-4 hands. Went back a few days later and won another 80. 4 months later I had 4000. Then lost 2k to a bad call by a dealer helping a player hit a soft 16. Then got it back at miss stud and a 4oak a year later on my 2nd bet.

Then again 20 an hour is better than the 450 loss.

Can't help with team play, but if you see me at a table be free to sit down...

Quote: arcticfun

So if you follow Wong's "benchmark" betting strategy ($10 for TC of <0, $25 - 0-1, $50 - 2, $75 - 3, $100 - >=4) the winning expectation is about $15-20 per hour depending on rules, with a st dev of around $450. And, you kind of need a $10k bankroll if you want to safely drop $100 bets. So my question: is y'all's time worth $20/hour? do you factor in fun and comps? Because if you were to do this seriously, I don't really think $20/h is enough. Does someone here have thoughts to share on "scaling up" and targeting $150/hr expected winnings?

I'm also curious how pooling a bankroll affects strategy. There are some accounts of team play out there, but the math isn't addressed all too much. If three people play and share a $15k BR, do they all play as though they had $5k or $15k? (ie, which BR would their bets and spreads reflect)? This isn't exactly the same thing as playing multiple hands with the same shoe due to covariance.

Personally I do factor in fun. When I'm counting it is still a form of gambling entertainment, which is a big difference between someone like me and a full-time pro. For a pro it's more of a job, although you have to enjoy it on some level or you will never survive.

For me, I like gambling and I know I'm always going to get that itch from time to time. So I learned to count so I at least have one avenue for +EV gambling.

As far as "scaling up," there's no big secret. You just have to build a bigger bankroll and be comfortable with bigger bets. The biggest I play is usually a $25 unit with a $250-350 big bet depending on the situation. With that spread and decent rules, I can expect closer to $40-$50/hour. And for me that is "worth it."

If you play rated you absolutely should factor in comps. But if you play rated, you run the risk of getting your name passed around if you get busted. As an mid-stakes amateur, I usually don't play rated as it's not worth the risk of burning my name out. But I'm probably overly paranoid.

Quote: arcticfun

So if you follow Wong's "benchmark" betting strategy ($10 for TC of <0, $25 - 0-1, $50 - 2, $75 - 3, $100 - >=4) the winning expectation is about $15-20 per hour depending on rules, with a st dev of around $450. And, you kind of need a $10k bankroll if you want to safely drop $100 bets. So my question: is y'all's time worth $20/hour? do you factor in fun and comps? Because if you were to do this seriously, I don't really think $20/h is enough. Does someone here have thoughts to share on "scaling up" and targeting $150/hr expected winnings?

I'm also curious how pooling a bankroll affects strategy. There are some accounts of team play out there, but the math isn't addressed all too much. If three people play and share a $15k BR, do they all play as though they had $5k or $15k? (ie, which BR would their bets and spreads reflect)? This isn't exactly the same thing as playing multiple hands with the same shoe due to covariance.

It is said that you play as if each player owns the entire bankroll, so long as each player is at a different table. However, their blackjack hands are not independent, simpy uncorrelated. For three players it is safer to assume each owns 2/3 the BR.

Quote: wroberson

. Then lost 2k to a bad call by a dealer helping a player hit a soft 16.

When wouldn't you hit a soft 16?

There are few who look at gambling as a permanent source of income. But I look at intelligent play like this. Is it worth learning to play the game well (which isn't too hard) to break even or have a slight advantage? Absolutely. It is entertainment for free vs. the large cost that most people pay.

You should be aware that while Wong's book is still relevant as far as the fundamentals of card counting, it is outdated as far as the numbers, because the game has changed for much the worse since it was published. One of the bigger changes is the dealer hit soft 17, where they stayed during the time the book was published. This alone makes for a larger house edge to overcome and you need bigger bet spreads, ramp and bankroll to overcome this larger house edge. If you apply the betting ramp and spread that Wong used, your results will be significantly less.

I play for a living, solo until this year when I took a partner and am expanding our parntership to a third member next month. We mostly play independently, but off the same bankroll. This allows each player to play to the total bankroll. I have never heard of that 2/3 suggestion. The advantage of multiple players playing off the same bankroll is that you will get to the all important 'long run' faster, where everything comes together and the numbers come in line to somewhere near where they should be. This is the point that variance begins to take a back seat. The downside of this type of team play is trust. Trust is critical. It has been the undoing of many teams.

I brought up variance a moment ago and I noticed there was little mention of this in your original post. Variance is huge! You plug in the numbers and the software says you have an advantage and a win rate of $20 an hour. But that is the longterm advantage. After 1000 hours you may see results in that ballpark, but in the short-term, you are a prisoner to variance.

I'll give you an example firm my own play. My average win rate is about $64/hr. It varies from $50 to $75, depending in exact rules and conditions. I started this year (2013) with a 15 week period in which I lost $32,000. I track my results by rounds rather than hours, but I am talking about somewhere between 275-300 hours. So instead of being 20 grand ahead (expected win rate), I was 32 grand in the whole. That's variance. Lol. It is a card counters worse enemy, but also his best friend. Worse enemy because it makes for huge swings in both directions, which requirs a large bankroll to overcome. Best friend because without variance, everyone and their brother would be attempting to play with an advantage and the casinos wouldn't offer any beatable games.

kewlj - thanks for this informative post. I think it is my only data point in terms of solid numbers from someone playing more than just casually. I play pretty much only at Mohegan Sun and the rules are very favorable there, including S17, DAS, double any hand except split aces, infinite splits, and ok penetration around 70%.

Of course I am aware of variance and I agree with your points. If I were to plot my cumulative bankroll vs time the slope of that line is about $5/h over ~200 hours. The scatter is all over the place, similar to your comment on being down 32k vs expected +20k. I've had days with multi-thousand-dollar wins, and losses too (not in the 10k range yet...)

It would be interesting to learn what your bet spread and money mgmt strategies are for your result of $64/h. What is your starting bet when you come to a table, neutral counts, negative counts, and high counts? How much of a dent in your BR did the 32k loss make and did you change your bets as a result? Do you stick to proportional betting? Thanks!

Quote: darthvader

When wouldn't you hit a soft 16?

The guy at 3rd base was standing on 16 all night. Then he got a s16 and started asking for advice. No one said anything he wave to the dealer to stand, and the dealer said you are going to hit, the player said hit and the hand is history.