Thoughts on Hail Marys
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Quote: arcticfunEvery so often as I near the end of a session due to time or other constraints, I give serious consideration to making a "hail Mary" bet. The typical circumstances are being down about 50% of my session bankroll (I specifically mean *session* bankroll, not my total stake). What are people's thoughts on making an end-all Hail Mary bet under "favorable" circumstances (small positive True Count, within table betting limits, etc.)? Would you accept a 50% loss and come back another time or would you rather give up what you came into the casino willing to lose in the first place, for a roughly 50% at getting back what you lost?
My thought is that you should never make a bet unless you have enough left afterwards to Split+Double the maximum amount of times possible, or you are making a horrible bet.
Quote: arcticfunEvery so often as I near the end of a session due to time or other constraints, I give serious consideration to making a "hail Mary" bet. The typical circumstances are being down about 50% of my session bankroll (I specifically mean *session* bankroll, not my total stake). What are people's thoughts on making an end-all Hail Mary bet under "favorable" circumstances (small positive True Count, within table betting limits, etc.)? Would you accept a 50% loss and come back another time or would you rather give up what you came into the casino willing to lose in the first place, for a roughly 50% at getting back what you lost?
Agree with others that I never made such a bet on BJ table. My personal rule was to have enough for one split and double both at a minimum, so if betting $10 I needed at least $30 to back it up. But playing my new games of choice, Pai Gow Poker, or Pai Gow Tiles, I will make the Hail Mary at the end of a session. My mindset is to try and win after having played a reasonable time. So if I've brought $400 for the day, and am down $175, and feel its time to go, I'll throw down$200. That way I have a 50-50 chance of walking out a winner. Albeit a winner of $15 versus possibly being a loser of $375! My last two hail Mary's have been Flutie-esque! Anyone who doesn't understand can google it....
Quote: arcticfunEvery so often as I near the end of a session due to time or other constraints, I give serious consideration to making a "hail Mary" bet. The typical circumstances are being down about 50% of my session bankroll (I specifically mean *session* bankroll, not my total stake). What are people's thoughts on making an end-all Hail Mary bet under "favorable" circumstances (small positive True Count, within table betting limits, etc.)? Would you accept a 50% loss and come back another time or would you rather give up what you came into the casino willing to lose in the first place, for a roughly 50% at getting back what you lost?
Same thing as was previously mentioned. I'll throw a hail mary on pai gow poker or on the pass line at craps if it's time to go and I have less than half my original stake for that table. These bets range from $100-$500. Overall lady variance has smiled on me in these situations.
I won't do it at blackjack unless I pull enough back to cover dd and splits opportunities AND I have a favorable count.
Splits, different story. Doubles, I think it doesn't matter.
Take it to Craps and throw it on either Pass Line or Don't Pass, the House Edge on Blackjack makes it a far worse bet if you limit yourself to just hitting or standing optimally.
Hail Mary is causing a block.
A Hail Mary is usually done when the team is down. It's late in the game and you're behind.
In blackjack, it would be, it's late in the shoe. You're ahead and the count is positive or negative.
Now, from what I get from the players here is that they would not leave a positive count and would raise their bet.
Quote: wrobersonSorry.
Hail Mary is causing a block.
A Hail Mary is usually done when the team is down. It's late in the game and you're behind.
In blackjack, it would be, it's late in the shoe. You're ahead and the count is positive or negative.
Now, from what I get from the players here is that they would not leave a positive count and would raise their bet.
I think everyone understood what you meant by a Hail Mary. My advice is the same.
I kept the spare 500 for a split or double. The dealer pitches me a 7, then a 9. He flips over the doomed 10. Was a bitch of hearts or a jack, who knows or cares at this point. I came to make one big bet, so my session was going to end before it began. I scrape my cards with a defeated look on my face since I would need an ace-4 to win....... We all know what happened after that.
Mind you always play table minimum so this was quite a jump.
Yeah, you got a five :)Quote: djatcI kept the spare 500 for a split or double. The dealer pitches me a 7, then a 9. He flips over the doomed 10. Was a bitch of hearts or a jack, who knows or cares at this point. I came to make one big bet, so my session was going to end before it began. I scrape my cards with a defeated look on my face since I would need an ace-4 to win....... We all know what happened after that.
But seriously, why would you do that unless you knew the first card was for sure a ten or an ace? Or you could have waited until a high count? AP is not about sucker gambling, my friend.
I recently had the opportunity to take a $950 double down. Unfortunately, the guy called his wife who came down with the money :(
Quote: teddysYeah, you got a five :)
But seriously, why would you do that unless you knew the first card was for sure a ten or an ace? Or you could have waited until a high count? AP is not about sucker gambling, my friend.
I recently had the opportunity to take a $950 double down. Unfortunately, the guy called his wife who came down with the money :(
It was involving a lucrative promotion like Revel but blackjack only. Gotta go hard or go home! I went home with my tail tucked between my legs.
Ah, well, bad variance then.Quote: djatcIt was involving a lucrative promotion like Revel but blackjack only. Gotta go hard or go home! I went home with my tail tucked between my legs.
Quote: IbeatyouracesIf you're going to do this, blackjack is one of the worst games.
Any game is the "worst game" as it pertains to "hail mary"s or, I as refer to them, "bail-out" bets.
They remain as a "no-win" situation, and those that say that they win them all the time are, I'm afraid, using their "selective" memories.
If you lose your bail-out bet, all you did was exacerbate an already aggravating and disruptive loss (must've been, or you wouldn't even have thought of bailing your way out). Now you're left cursing yourself and your bad luck all the way home, broke.
And, even should you be so fortunate as to win your bail-out bet, what sort of "negative reinforcement" might that serve as? How often might you revert to that supposedly "easy way out" in the future, only to see them fall hopelessly into the dealer's tray?
No, my friends, there is no good game for any bail out bets.
There exists only the grind. And that includes, among other things, step-by-step recoup when necessary. It is, IMHO, the "only way to live" at the tables.
Quote: gr8player
If you lose your bail-out bet, all you did was exacerbate an already aggravating and disruptive loss (must've been, or you wouldn't even have thought of bailing your way out). Now you're left cursing yourself and your bad luck all the way home, broke.
And, even should you be so fortunate as to win your bail-out bet, what sort of "negative reinforcement" might that serve as? How often might you revert to that supposedly "easy way out" in the future, only to see them fall hopelessly into the dealer's tray?
I tend to disagree with you, if you have a session buy-in that you were willing to lose anyway, but get tired of playing and are around the halfway down point, you might say: Okay, I'm either going to lose the amount planned or leavin' even! Nothing wrong with that, in my opinion, just have to be sure to make a bet that doesn't hurt your EV, which putting it all on a hand of Blackjack would.
Again, I don't think it negatively enforces anything if one is not playing over one's head to begin with. If this is just money that the player has already prepared for the possibility of losing, then no problem, in my opinion.
If one were to lose one's session bankroll, and then proceeds to buy-in for an unplanned amount, however, in an effort to recoup...then I may have some disagreement with that.
Recently, no matter how I play, I can't seem to get ahead...so I've been out since August & won't be playing again until December/January.
