Bet Spread Question

After years of choosing to avoid blackjack rather than learn how to play correctly, I've finally memorized the basic strategy tables in preparation for my upcoming trip to Vegas. I'd obviously like to play with an advantage rather than the roughly .5% disadvantage I'll get with basic strategy alone, so I've been researching the various counting systems out there, and how to apply them.

One thing I can't quite wrap my head around is how to determine a proper bet spread. It makes sense to me intuitively that using no bet spread means you're basically counting for no reason, as you aren't exploiting the variance that you're tracking. I've read here and in other places that anything less than a 6 or 8 unit spread is insufficient to beat a 6 deck H17 game, which is what I think I'll be up against most as I'll be playing low limits. Most folks seem to suggest 8-12 units, depending on how much "heat" you're getting, your bankroll, risk aversion, etc.

It makes sense to me that you need to "make up" for all the -EV hands you play with the fewer +EV ones, hence the fact that using a 2 unit spread wouldn't get you into +EV territory. That's about where my comprehension ends, though.

If I can't/don't want to spread enough units to get to +EV, is it still beneficial to count and bet with a lower spread, or is it not worth the energy? I'm not looking to play for a living, just trying to give myself the best chance of coming out ahead possible. This is likely a very complicated question, but can someone give me the basics of how the "breakeven point" is found where your bet spread gets you into positive EV?

It doesn't take all that much to get to a break even game. Assuming decent penetration, as little as a 1-3 spread, and not playing some of the biggest negative counts will do it. There are people that are very content to play a break even game or maybe just slightly +EV, while earning some comps. You certainly will avoid almost any heat doing so.

Spread as much as you can get away with while considering bankroll and heat. Casinos and even pits in the same casino can have different levels of heat so experiment and stay alert.

Should you count with a small spread? Yes, yes, yes! Index play and wonging will enhance the smaller spread quite nicely.

I'm almost understanding the answers to this most excellent question. Probably somewhat vague and slangy for good reason, but if any of you would care to elaborate, I'd be very appreciative. I do get wonging, but not clear on unit spread recommendations and index play.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Most players bet whatever the TC is in units. I.E. if the TC is +3 they bet 3 units. Some are more aggresives, some are less depending on what you can get away with. Index play is when you change certain plays based on the count. Most common is 16 vs. 10.

Thank you, Ibeat! That clears it up!

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Now I'm wondering if pit security uses that unit correlation specifically to identify and back off a counter. Like if they looked at the tape and counted the shoe themselves, and saw your flat bet increase at the point the shoe went +EV, you're marked. They must, at least in some cases.

Seems ironic to me that they build AP into the game (doubledown and splits are both inherently AP moves, raising to take advantage of favorable odds - not that y'all didn't know that), but they'll back off a counter. This forum is corrupting me through edumacation, cuz when I first joined, I thought counting was cheating, not taking advantage of increased awareness. Next thing you know, I'll be slouched back in my chair hole-carding some careless dealer with a shiny new ring on my finger. Naw; it would spoil the fun for me. Cards talk, cheaters walk, kharma still rules.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Remember though, this was just a generalization.

I understood both concepts from other forum reading, but had not identified them by definition. I'm not going to run out half-informed (which is my self-grade of my study of this) and bet the farm on it, but I am going to play a better game, I think. thanks again!

Surveillance has software that does the counting for them. The snarling pit boss doesn't stare you down that often. It may well be someone that you haven't seen in the pit that taps you on the shoulder and says you're done for the day.

If spreading 1 to 3 doesn't draw heat, are there index plays that stand out as red flags? Inconsistent use of the insurance bet seems like it would draw attention. What about returning to a 1 unit bet immediately after the shuffle?

Quote: JimRockford

If spreading 1 to 3 doesn't draw heat, are there index plays that stand out as red flags? Inconsistent use of the insurance bet seems like it would draw attention. What about returning to a 1 unit bet immediately after the shuffle?

All red flags, Jim. Minus a larger spread most places won't bother though.

I was told by a few dealers from some local casinos they don't pay attention unless your bets start exceeding $100, so $5 to $90 never seemed to get any heat. then again if you stay all day, day after day drinking water and you look like a card counter.

It depends on the House, is my guess. I talked to a former dealer from Wheeling Island Hotel, Casino, Racetrack who dealt there back when they had good rules...the rules pretty well suck now. Anyway, he said they tolerated a spread of $5-$50 with a starting bet of $5 and a starting bet of $10 to anything less than $100. I don't know if this is still the case, and nor would he, because he hasn't worked there in quite some time.

I have an AP friend who got tossed from El Cortez for raising his bet from $5 to $10!

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I love EC, it has a distinct smell/odor and I'm a low roller, so I fit in perfect.