Is Learning Card Counting in BlackJack Still Worth It In This Climate?
August 2nd, 2013 at 2:59:59 PM
permalink
I'm a poker player. But as many of you guys who know much about poker, a lot of the poker games are not soft anymore. Even at the casino, games aren't that soft at the 2/5NL as it use to be. Bad players don't play poker much and the games are just very tough.
Back when i started going to the casinos many years ago, i would play blackjack and would play basic strategy. I had a friend who then practice counting cards and he was pretty good at knowing what the count was. He then would then bet the amount which correlates to the true count. I also tried counting and my counting wasn't that good because i didn't give much effort and practice that well. The other problem for me was I wasn't good at the dividing the count and seeing and approximating what percentage of the shoe in the deck was left etc. Thus i was okay with counting on what the count is though i make mistakes a lot, but i wasn't good at knowing the true count which makes the whole counting thing pointless.
I visited another forum about blackjack and cardcounting, i dont recall the name of the forum but in 2011 or so you couldn't create any more threads so the whole forum is just a bunch of threads.
I read about how its very hard for guys to make a living playing blackjack because those that do well, they will get heat b/c of the amounts they bet. I read many ppl mention such as if you are betting $25 per unit and aren't spreading it out that much, you most likely won't get any heat at all. However, its very tough for a black chip player to not get noticed when counting.
In poker, if you are very good, you will do well at the table. Thus you could play the highest limits in the world if you like such as play 25/50nl at Bellagio or 400/800 mixed game in Bobbys Room. Thus it isn't like you aren't allowed to play in a game because you are so good. This is different to those who play in private games where some very good players might not get invited to play because even though they are very good, they might not give action etc.
In blackjack, it seems like you can't make much money due to heat. Is it true that the climate for a professional blackjack player is very bad now as oppose to back then? Or has it gotten better? I read about guys who say they are professional blackjack players and they said back when they started, they made very little money when they were doing it with units as small as $10. And even now, they are betting green and black chips though they can't bet black chip much due to heat.
I'm curious but how much professional blackjack players would you say are there in the US? Now if you ask how much professional poker players there are in the us that does it as their sole income, its obviously going to at least 200x the amount as a blackjack pro. Would i be correct to make this assessment?
Also the very good poker players make in the mid 5 figures but the cream of the crop ones would be making 6 figures and that breed is very very rare. Of course there are tons that breakeven and go broke but im talking about those poker players that don't have huge leaks such as table games or sportsbetting where they don't have an edge.
In today's climate, how much are blackjack pros making? I assume there are very few that make 6 figures because eventually they will get asked to leave and not play anymore because they are too good?
I'm thinking about learning blackjack counting again and giving it a ton of time where i would master it very well. However, it would horrible if im very good at it and then i go, i can't even bet much or play at certain places b/c the pit boss notices what im doing. Such as imagine you are very good at betting sports but then all your accounts they don't let you bet or you can't bet at a casino b/c they don't want any of your action or lets just say for example, you are not allowed to even have anyone make a wager for you. Thus being one of the best sportsbettors in the world would be useless if you can't make a wager. But are there tons of guys who play bj for a living had to quit b/c they are too good and they aren't allowed to play blackjack? Even if thats the case, they aren't even allowed to bet green chips?
Does anyone know how much a green chip player makes on average? What about a black chip player?
Back when i started going to the casinos many years ago, i would play blackjack and would play basic strategy. I had a friend who then practice counting cards and he was pretty good at knowing what the count was. He then would then bet the amount which correlates to the true count. I also tried counting and my counting wasn't that good because i didn't give much effort and practice that well. The other problem for me was I wasn't good at the dividing the count and seeing and approximating what percentage of the shoe in the deck was left etc. Thus i was okay with counting on what the count is though i make mistakes a lot, but i wasn't good at knowing the true count which makes the whole counting thing pointless.
I visited another forum about blackjack and cardcounting, i dont recall the name of the forum but in 2011 or so you couldn't create any more threads so the whole forum is just a bunch of threads.
I read about how its very hard for guys to make a living playing blackjack because those that do well, they will get heat b/c of the amounts they bet. I read many ppl mention such as if you are betting $25 per unit and aren't spreading it out that much, you most likely won't get any heat at all. However, its very tough for a black chip player to not get noticed when counting.
In poker, if you are very good, you will do well at the table. Thus you could play the highest limits in the world if you like such as play 25/50nl at Bellagio or 400/800 mixed game in Bobbys Room. Thus it isn't like you aren't allowed to play in a game because you are so good. This is different to those who play in private games where some very good players might not get invited to play because even though they are very good, they might not give action etc.
In blackjack, it seems like you can't make much money due to heat. Is it true that the climate for a professional blackjack player is very bad now as oppose to back then? Or has it gotten better? I read about guys who say they are professional blackjack players and they said back when they started, they made very little money when they were doing it with units as small as $10. And even now, they are betting green and black chips though they can't bet black chip much due to heat.
I'm curious but how much professional blackjack players would you say are there in the US? Now if you ask how much professional poker players there are in the us that does it as their sole income, its obviously going to at least 200x the amount as a blackjack pro. Would i be correct to make this assessment?
Also the very good poker players make in the mid 5 figures but the cream of the crop ones would be making 6 figures and that breed is very very rare. Of course there are tons that breakeven and go broke but im talking about those poker players that don't have huge leaks such as table games or sportsbetting where they don't have an edge.
In today's climate, how much are blackjack pros making? I assume there are very few that make 6 figures because eventually they will get asked to leave and not play anymore because they are too good?
I'm thinking about learning blackjack counting again and giving it a ton of time where i would master it very well. However, it would horrible if im very good at it and then i go, i can't even bet much or play at certain places b/c the pit boss notices what im doing. Such as imagine you are very good at betting sports but then all your accounts they don't let you bet or you can't bet at a casino b/c they don't want any of your action or lets just say for example, you are not allowed to even have anyone make a wager for you. Thus being one of the best sportsbettors in the world would be useless if you can't make a wager. But are there tons of guys who play bj for a living had to quit b/c they are too good and they aren't allowed to play blackjack? Even if thats the case, they aren't even allowed to bet green chips?
Does anyone know how much a green chip player makes on average? What about a black chip player?
August 2nd, 2013 at 3:01:24 PM
permalink
Does anyone know how much a green chip player makes on average? What about a black chip player? I assume if you are a red chip player and only bet $10 a unit and use a spread from $10-$80, you would probably not get any heat ? But even for that type of player if one plays full time, how much does one make overall? I would say for a red chip player, you looking at somewhere between 10k-15k if you are very good? Or would that be too high?
August 2nd, 2013 at 3:43:24 PM
permalink
You seem to have a pretty good handle on today's blackjack, Pauly. I played for a living for over a decade and made a lot of money almost exclusively from straight counting. Unfortunately that's not going to fly today for a few reasons such as deteriorating rules and top notch surveillance.
Don't be discouraged if you're not comfortable converting to the true count. There are some good unbalanced counts that do not require conversion and they can get you the money.
Don't be discouraged if you're not comfortable converting to the true count. There are some good unbalanced counts that do not require conversion and they can get you the money.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
August 2nd, 2013 at 9:26:32 PM
permalink
I am in my 10th year of supporting myself from blackjack play, Pauly. When, I first read your post early today, I initially wasn't going to respond, because I really don't like to encourage people down this road. For one, I don't particularly want more counters playing at a serious level. Lol. And number two, there have been too many folks in the last decade, that after seeing the movie 21, had visions of being a 'professional card counter, bj player. They usually learn just enough to lose their ass.
Unfortunately card counting blackjack play is not the quick road to riches that many think. Playing serious blackjack today, via card counting techniques is a grind. The math still works, but as you have already discovered, todays games, with worse conditions means getting an edge is real work, and the swings that go along with it are huge and can and will really test you mentally. Because of this many of the older guys who at one time played blackjack for a living or seriously, have become frustrated by current conditions and no longer do. Between this site and two blackjack sites, that I participate on regularly, there seems to be about 3-4 dozen guys that play for a living or the majority of there living that participate, and there is probably that many again, that are members but choose not to participate. With casinos and games almost every where now, most travel extensively. A few like myself are based out if Vegas and travel less. I specifically moved to Vegas 4 years ago, to cut down my travel.
So anyway, you have noted the obvious difference in playing blackjack and poker for a living. Playing blackjack, you not only have to win, but have to stay a step ahead of the casinos that don't want your business. Finding ways to still be able to play is the tricky part. That's why so many travel extensively. It is difficult to remain welcome if you have only a handful of casino's and games available.
The levels you mentioned, green spreading to mid black is a key level. If you pay that level, play enough, and spread yourself around enough you can make that upper five figure range that you mention. You may eventouch six figures, occasionally with some pozitive variance. That is the range I am at and my bj results are constantly in that upper 5 figure range. But here's the problem. If you desire to up your results and REALLY crack that six figure range it becomes real difficult. You have to move up to higher levels of play, max bet beyond mid black, and flying under the radar becomes real difficult. You start to lose stores and the amount you can play goes down, so your income declines. So IMO, mid black max bet and upper five figures is the sweet spot, that is somewhat tolerated.
I am not a poker player myself, but I do know a couple guys that split their time between blackjack and poker that seem to do OK. So, one or the other becomes a 'supplementary' thing. They both tell me that playing both helps break things up some. I don't know.
Good luck in your decision.
Unfortunately card counting blackjack play is not the quick road to riches that many think. Playing serious blackjack today, via card counting techniques is a grind. The math still works, but as you have already discovered, todays games, with worse conditions means getting an edge is real work, and the swings that go along with it are huge and can and will really test you mentally. Because of this many of the older guys who at one time played blackjack for a living or seriously, have become frustrated by current conditions and no longer do. Between this site and two blackjack sites, that I participate on regularly, there seems to be about 3-4 dozen guys that play for a living or the majority of there living that participate, and there is probably that many again, that are members but choose not to participate. With casinos and games almost every where now, most travel extensively. A few like myself are based out if Vegas and travel less. I specifically moved to Vegas 4 years ago, to cut down my travel.
So anyway, you have noted the obvious difference in playing blackjack and poker for a living. Playing blackjack, you not only have to win, but have to stay a step ahead of the casinos that don't want your business. Finding ways to still be able to play is the tricky part. That's why so many travel extensively. It is difficult to remain welcome if you have only a handful of casino's and games available.
The levels you mentioned, green spreading to mid black is a key level. If you pay that level, play enough, and spread yourself around enough you can make that upper five figure range that you mention. You may eventouch six figures, occasionally with some pozitive variance. That is the range I am at and my bj results are constantly in that upper 5 figure range. But here's the problem. If you desire to up your results and REALLY crack that six figure range it becomes real difficult. You have to move up to higher levels of play, max bet beyond mid black, and flying under the radar becomes real difficult. You start to lose stores and the amount you can play goes down, so your income declines. So IMO, mid black max bet and upper five figures is the sweet spot, that is somewhat tolerated.
I am not a poker player myself, but I do know a couple guys that split their time between blackjack and poker that seem to do OK. So, one or the other becomes a 'supplementary' thing. They both tell me that playing both helps break things up some. I don't know.
Good luck in your decision.
