dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
March 9th, 2013 at 8:12:12 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Isnt the 10% of losses rebate how Johnson beat the Trop in AC a couple of years ago?

This may be the most important thing that has come up. I think Johnson had a 20% rebate, but the point stands.

Oscar's ploppy is not counting, not edge sorting, probably not shuffle tracking. He is either

(a) cheating with help from at least one dealer, who is giving him info about the next card off the shoe (unlikely but possible), or

(b) he is taking advantage of your loss rebate plan, and has gotten lucky.

I think (b) explains everything. Let's say his loss target for the day is \$40000, and his win target is \$10,000. Using your liberal rules, his odds of achieving his target is about 80% each day (slightly less, due to the house edge). Let's say 79% because he's a bit of a ploppy.

He has a 79% chance of winning \$10,000, and a 21% chance of losing \$40,000. Then you give him a \$4,000 buy-in the next day, so he actually only lost \$36,000.

EV of each day = 0.79 * 10,000 - .21 * 36,000 = +\$340

So, even is he makes BS mistakes occasionally, as long as his edge stays low, he's actually expected to win in the long term. Then he catches some lucky cards, and he's way out ahead. If he knows this math, then he is playing the casino. It's been done before... the loss rebate feels like a good idea, but actually lets the player get the edge.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-man-who-broke-atlantic-city/308900/?single_page=true

You may need to discontinue, or at least reduce, the loss rebate.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8869
March 9th, 2013 at 9:40:39 AM permalink
I was puzzled for a while, but finally found where Oscar mentions the loss rebate

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/13273-are-we-being-cheated/3/#post225430 [it is #5]

I can say for sure giving a large percentage of members here a 10% rebate for losses would mean them taking you to the cleaners. The way it would act itself out would indeed mean the wins would be the striking thing, while the losses seem OK. Understanding why is definitely not intuitive to most people, as it seems that rebating only losses would be safe. WRONG.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see.
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
• Posts: 1348
March 9th, 2013 at 5:17:33 PM permalink
That was my thought, too, but two things are throwing me.

1: His play. It could be cover, but it sounds like a lot of edge to give up for cover.
2: The fact that we're being told he's had twelve winning sessions in a row. That is definitely not what should be expected of someone exploiting a loss rebate.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
MonkeyMonkey
Joined: May 1, 2012
• Posts: 770
March 9th, 2013 at 5:26:37 PM permalink
Quote: Lexinger

Hey, I'm not the guy who posted a picture of a plain, ordinary playing card.

Wow, you're not Oscar? Whew, I'm relieved, because it would be pretty strange if you were both the guy with the problem and the solution and you were talking to yourself on a gambling board about it. So, I do not think you have schizophrenia or are using a sock puppet, what I think is that you're making stuff up.

You're the one that said:

Quote: Lexinger

For the very infrequent gullible who tries that stuff in my town, the dealers are told to ignore his hand signals, and take the money when his hand loses. After a few hands of that, they give it up completely and leave.

The practice you describe would not fly in any casinos that I'm aware of, and furthermore not every "infrequent gullible" would slink away with his tail between his legs, some would report the activity to the gaming commission and there would be an investigation. Since I haven't heard of any such investigation, and you refuse to provide any sort of evidence, I can only believe that you're making it up. For what reason? Who knows, the internet is a weird place.
Lexinger
Joined: Feb 21, 2013
• Posts: 47
March 9th, 2013 at 7:11:26 PM permalink
Yeah, okay, you got me. Casinos get arrested, and worse stuff doesn't happen in the real world. Happy now? And, I should start posting up pretty "playing cards" like mostly everyone else because evidently that's about as close as you get to the real action. Lol.

Sometimes there's more to be learned from "winging it".
Those who can, do; those who can't, teach. But those who confuse the two... they wind up on the internet.
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
• Posts: 4299
March 9th, 2013 at 11:17:23 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I was puzzled for a while, but finally found where Oscar mentions the loss rebate

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/13273-are-we-being-cheated/3/#post225430 [it is #5]

I can say for sure giving a large percentage of members here a 10% rebate for losses would mean them taking you to the cleaners. The way it would act itself out would indeed mean the wins would be the striking thing, while the losses seem OK. Understanding why is definitely not intuitive to most people, as it seems that rebating only losses would be safe. WRONG. [edits]

Good catch OG. I was similarly confused about the rebate as I had missed the ill-quoted response there.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
MonkeyMonkey
Joined: May 1, 2012
• Posts: 770
March 10th, 2013 at 12:17:22 AM permalink
Quote: Lexinger

Yeah, okay, you got me.

Yeah, I know, but thanks for the affirmation, I guess.

Quote: Lexinger

Casinos get arrested,

Oh, how wonderfully absurd. I've never seen a casino lead out in handcuffs, that's soooo funny.

Uh, no, when casino employees cheat they are generally caught. Arrest and prosecution tend to follow.

Quote: Lexinger

and worse stuff doesn't happen in the real world.

I have no idea where you're coming up with this stuff, it's sorta like you inhabit your own reality and it just intersects with this one occasionally.

Quote: Lexinger

Happy now?

Absolutely.

Quote: Lexinger

And, I should start posting up pretty "playing cards"

There was a reason for the picture of the card. I can explain if it's eluding you.

Quote: Lexinger

like mostly everyone else

Oscar is everyone else? That whole schizophrenic thing is creeping back into focus.

Quote: Lexinger

because evidently that's about as close as you get to the real action. Lol.

Um, wrong again. I'm a dealer and I have a pretty good idea of what would fly and what wouldn't. I work with and talk to gaming agents all the time. Your fantasy about dealers cheating doesn't wash. That's how close I get to the real action.

Quote: Lexinger

Sometimes there's more to be learned from "winging it".

Well, I sure hope you're learning then, because posting ridiculous, unsubstantiated claims on the internet will nearly always get you called out.
Lexinger
Joined: Feb 21, 2013
• Posts: 47
March 10th, 2013 at 8:37:38 AM permalink
And, a fine company "human shuffling machine", I'm sure.
Those who can, do; those who can't, teach. But those who confuse the two... they wind up on the internet.
sunrise089
Joined: Jul 12, 2010
• Posts: 209
March 10th, 2013 at 12:16:41 PM permalink
Where do you all see talk of a rebate? He's just talking about table hold due to bad players.
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
March 10th, 2013 at 2:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: sunrise089

Where do you all see talk of a rebate? He's just talking about table hold due to bad players.

"5. Do you give him 'comps', and is that included in the amount he is up?
Yes, we pay 10% of losses if he loses the previous day, which he uses as his first buyin. "

There we go.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829