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Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 26th, 2012 at 4:19:20 PM permalink
I recently saw a new blackjack side bet called Royal 20's at the Gold Coast. I was in a hurry so just grabbed a rule card. What I should have asked about was:

1. Number of decks (I think six).
2. Does a soft 20 count as a win (I think so).
3. Penetration (this would be highly countable, so it is an important question).

All I have to go on is the rule card below.

My initial analysis of Royal 20's shows a house edge of 18.06%, assuming six decks and soft 20's win. This is a lot higher than most BJ side bets. Maybe they had to have a big cushion to protect themselves from card counters, as Lucky Ladies did.

Can anyone confirm or deny my math, or answer the three questions above?

Thanks.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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December 26th, 2012 at 4:27:18 PM permalink
Surprise!

This bet was burnt out in 2003 when it was at the Plaza and a few other casinos. It is more vulnerable than Lucky Ladies and has much lower variance. Yes, A-9 counts as 20. It doesn't take much to beat it. A friend camped out at the Plaza and played it for weeks. He bet $50 on Royal 20's (that was the table max) whenever the count indicated.

Here is the original article on the game, from 2003:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2003/Sep-21-Sun-2003/business/22168135.html

I actually still have the simulator I wrote way back then. I checked the code, same game.

Any Ten-based count will work (e.g. 2-9 = +1, T,J,Q,K = -2, A = 0).

Simulating that count with 6 decks dealt to 260 cards (5 of 6), 100M hands:
Wager frequency: 7.67%
Average edge: 8.66%
Units won per 100 hands: 0.664
Trigger true count: +6

Simulating that count with 2 decks dealt to 75 cards:
Wager frequency: 6.54%
Average edge: 10.58%
Units won per 100 hands: 0.692
Trigger true count: +8

The numbers above are based on very old software. I'll re-do it in the next few days. My recommendation is that the side bet be carefully watched by any casino hosting it. Of course, APs have a good thing going until then.
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GH
GH
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December 27th, 2012 at 5:47:45 AM permalink
This side bet contains TWO spots? One for betting ***YOU*** get a 20, and the other for betting the ***DEALER*** will get a 20. I regularly see people trying to play ***BOTH*** spots at the same time.

Also, the (one and only Royal 20's) table Mike refers to in his analysis (at the Gold Coast) had a CSM. They have since replaced it with a DD pitch. The CSM now replaces the only shoe game they used to have (near the cashier).
MrCasinoGames
MrCasinoGames
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:06:09 AM permalink
Inventer of the game BOBBY FLORENCE .

Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?

Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
GH
GH
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:09:10 AM permalink
Quote: MrCasinoGames

Inventer of the game BOBBY FLORENCE .

Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?

Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."



Hmmmm...
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:18:07 AM permalink
Hmmm... From that Review Journal article:

Quote: Review Journal

Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?

Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:18:46 AM permalink
Wow.

Three of us keyed in on that same snippet!

LOL!
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:41:06 AM permalink
Quote: MrCasinoGames

Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."



I'm sure I warned him to put it on a CSM.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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December 27th, 2012 at 6:55:23 AM permalink
I'm laughing because the Wizard can't remember the work he did 10 years ago!

You should probably check your archives to make sure you actually did that work to make sure that the inventor wasn't pulling a name out of a hat!!!
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 27th, 2012 at 7:02:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm sure I warned him to put it on a CSM.


Either he ignored and/or forgot your adivce, or BoyMimbo's right.

Quote: Review Journal

Question: It seems like this game would be susceptible to card counting.

Answer: As far as counting goes, the casino executives say that people who count cards don't waste their money on side bets.

Quote: boymimbo

You should probably check your archives to make sure you actually did that work to make sure that the inventor wasn't pulling a name out of a hat!!!

I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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