gambeano
Joined: Mar 3, 2010
• Posts: 5
March 3rd, 2010 at 8:58:55 AM permalink
I know this can't work, but I'll float the question anyway.

Ok, take Bodog Blackjack. Play using a good statistical method with splits/doubles/etc. Don't count cards, but you could change up your rules with a high count.

First bet \$5, if lose double the bet (\$10,20,40,80,160,320) if win go back to \$5.
If you lose a \$320 bet, then go back to \$5.
If you lose/win a double, split, just treat it like a typical win/loss.

The method certainly keeps you on the upward account balance for sometime, but then the big loss takes a chunk out of your gains.

The reason I think it might work, is that it essentially gives you a means to oscillate your bet size without increasing your overall risk, while you wait for the opportunity to double, split, and BJ.

Please, tell me why I'm stupid.

Gambeano
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
• Posts: 1258
March 3rd, 2010 at 9:37:20 AM permalink
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isnt this the Martingale all over again?
[This space is intentionally left blank]
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 10202
March 3rd, 2010 at 9:38:30 AM permalink
Stupid? Nah. You've just stumbled upon the oldest betting system in the world. The Martingale System.

The reason that IT'S stupid is that sooner or later, you'll have a string of losses that puts you up against the table limit. Or destroys your bankroll.

All for the chance to get \$5 ahead.

You have an interesting twist to avoid total financial ruin: Reset when you hit -\$320.

But how many times does that happen, vs the number of times you win more than \$320?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
• Posts: 1147
March 3rd, 2010 at 9:38:54 AM permalink
You are not stupid, but it's a system that will ultimately bankrupt you. Check out

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

It's called "Martingale". Every day people "discover" this system, but it won't work. The fact that you thought of it at least means you are using your mind more than the average gambler, so consider yourself ahead of the game. Just don't use this system with real money AND expect it to work.
darrenfromindy
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 35
March 3rd, 2010 at 9:43:57 AM permalink
Gambeano you're not "stupid", it's just that an Martingale system will eventually result in a HUGE loss if you play long enough. Just because you have an OPPORTUNITY to split or double-down does not mean that you'll win those hands. It's not uncommon to lose seven or more hands in a row. It can totally wipe out your bankroll or at the very least put you in the hole.
gambeano
Joined: Mar 3, 2010
• Posts: 5
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:44:35 AM permalink
I know that it's a Martingale approach and that the reason it won't work is the the table limit and/or my personal limit. It does work in theory with an unlimited amount of money, but that is not very important here.

The reason I think it might work has to do with the improved money odds when you have BJ, double, or a split. Think of the limited Martingale as a means to have a higher than normal bet in place to catch the 3/2 or double money hand.

Without doing some calculations/simulations I would assume that the odds are still NOT in my favor and if they were I would just get banned after a short run.

One more thing about Martingale, it actually works much much better if you have a 3-5% or more edge. Would using simple (or less aggressive) card counting with the Martingale approach I describe work?

Gambeano
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8295
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:49:24 AM permalink
everything works better when the odds are in your favor.

get that 3% deal and drop the martingale and go to the kelly criterion. You'll be able to retire soon a rich man.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
stephen
Joined: Jan 5, 2010
• Posts: 28
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:55:11 AM permalink
How does the system do anything to get big bets out when the odds are in your favor (e.g. a double situation)? No betting system can change the house edge, and without counting the HA is effectively the same for every hand. So your large bets are effectively exposed to the sane edge as your small one.

If you're counting you want to vary the bet with the count, not with the results of the last hand.
wildqat
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
• Posts: 157
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:55:58 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

You have an interesting twist to avoid total financial ruin: Reset when you hit -\$320.

But how many times does that happen, vs the number of times you win more than \$320?

Well, you get a net loss about 49.1% of the time.* In order to hit the reset button, you have to lose 7 times in a row. That has a 0.69% chance of happening. And your actual loss in that case is \$5+\$10+\$20+...=\$635 (assuming no doubles or splits).

I suppose the 99.31% of the time you don't run into seven losses in a row, you'll eventually win the \$635 to cover the times you do. It'd be a long grind, though, unless you win a double after several losses (and your bankroll can cover a double; to cover just a double with the \$320 bet out there, you'd need to start with at least \$955, and that's a best case scenario).

* Of course, that counts surrender, which may not be possible at Bodog. If not, it still wouldn't change things much, because you only surrender 4.5% of the time, and you wind up losing most of those anyway (15 vs. 10, 15 vs. 9/10/A, etc.).
darrenfromindy
Joined: Jan 23, 2010