European Blackjack situation (NHC)
June 19th, 2012 at 10:27:03 PM
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I imagine this has been asked many times but I am brand new to the site and haven't found out how to navigate this correctly. If around, a link would be helpful.
Blackjack with no hole card for the dealer. The second card is taken after all players are finished. I am only wondering about 3rd base play (i usually have no regard for 3rd base) and this is simply because there is a direct correlation between the hit card and the second card that the dealer MUST take (100% of the time)
The hand in question is a hard 16 vs a dealer 7 (assume 8 decks if that information is needed).
I do not know how to crunch the numbers but here is how i look at it. What i'm analyzing is the NEXT card. It has to come out and I choose where it goes:
10, J, Q, K - makes no difference. If i hit i bust if i stand I lose.
6, 7, 8, 9 - If i hit i bust, if i stand, the dealer has a 13, 14, 15, 16 respectively and has to hit again (and hopefully bust)
3, 4, 5 - I think I want this card to make my 19, 20 or 21. But if I stand then I'm not dead yet as the dealer still has a 10, 11 or 12
2 - I have no idea....if i hit I have an 18 with him drawing with his 7, or if i stand he is drawing with a 9
A - I think i'm better hitting here. If i hit I get a 17 with the dealer drawing. If i stand I lose.
I think my general question is should basic strategy be altered for 3rd base using european rules. but this single example is what it will take to convince me that basic strategy still applies.
in my mind, 4 cards are thrown out (the 10s). out of the 9 remaining, 4 are definitely better if you stand (6, 7, 8, 9). and the other 5 may be better with a stand, but not enough to make the stand the correct decision.
thanks.
Blackjack with no hole card for the dealer. The second card is taken after all players are finished. I am only wondering about 3rd base play (i usually have no regard for 3rd base) and this is simply because there is a direct correlation between the hit card and the second card that the dealer MUST take (100% of the time)
The hand in question is a hard 16 vs a dealer 7 (assume 8 decks if that information is needed).
I do not know how to crunch the numbers but here is how i look at it. What i'm analyzing is the NEXT card. It has to come out and I choose where it goes:
10, J, Q, K - makes no difference. If i hit i bust if i stand I lose.
6, 7, 8, 9 - If i hit i bust, if i stand, the dealer has a 13, 14, 15, 16 respectively and has to hit again (and hopefully bust)
3, 4, 5 - I think I want this card to make my 19, 20 or 21. But if I stand then I'm not dead yet as the dealer still has a 10, 11 or 12
2 - I have no idea....if i hit I have an 18 with him drawing with his 7, or if i stand he is drawing with a 9
A - I think i'm better hitting here. If i hit I get a 17 with the dealer drawing. If i stand I lose.
I think my general question is should basic strategy be altered for 3rd base using european rules. but this single example is what it will take to convince me that basic strategy still applies.
in my mind, 4 cards are thrown out (the 10s). out of the 9 remaining, 4 are definitely better if you stand (6, 7, 8, 9). and the other 5 may be better with a stand, but not enough to make the stand the correct decision.
thanks.
June 20th, 2012 at 10:02:00 AM
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Unless you have knowledge of what the next card is, ENHC (or any other form of no-hole-card play) makes no difference when it comes to hit/stand strategy. An unknown card is an unknown card, whether it's the dealer's hole card, the next card in the shoe, or some other card at random from the shoe. The probability of what your hit card would be (if you do so) or the dealer's next card is the same, so it makes no difference with strategy. Of course it can affect the outcome of an individual hand, but the odds (and thus the proper strategy) between a hit/stand decision are unaffected. Even if the dealer had a 10 or Ace up whether you should hit or stand is the same because if the dealer draws a blackjack the EV is still -1.00 regardless of what you did. The only way ENHC affects the odds or strategy is when deciding whether or not to double or split a hand vs. a 10 or Ace, because if the dealer draws a BJ you lose both bets (in a hole-card game the play would've ended and your original bet taken before you got to make the decision); in some other forms of no-hole-card play you won't lose your additional bets if the dealer gets a BJ (and that takes your odds/strategy back to the same as a hole-card game).
June 20th, 2012 at 11:38:44 AM
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I agree with Kellybnf's explanation of why your being anchor would not change your playing strategy. But suppose by error the dealer did show the next card? I was surprised to learn that you should stand on 16 if the next card is a 3 because the EV of your 16 vs the dealer's 13 is about 0.039 whereas your 19 would have an EV of about -0.019 vs the dealer's 10. (If you know the next card is 4, 5, or ace, then hit your 16.)
My friend had a similar opportunity but in non-European blackjack. He knew that he should hit soft 18 vs the dealer's 10, but then the dealer accidentally revealed that the next card was a ten. My friend took the hit against the protests of the other players. The other players were right because they knew the dealer would have busted with that 10 if the dealer had had a stiff hand. By the way, the dealer did have a stiff hand, but got 21 with the card after the 10.
My friend had a similar opportunity but in non-European blackjack. He knew that he should hit soft 18 vs the dealer's 10, but then the dealer accidentally revealed that the next card was a ten. My friend took the hit against the protests of the other players. The other players were right because they knew the dealer would have busted with that 10 if the dealer had had a stiff hand. By the way, the dealer did have a stiff hand, but got 21 with the card after the 10.
June 20th, 2012 at 11:43:43 AM
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As Kellynbnf said it makes absolutely no difference to basic strayegy the position of 3rd base in ENHC likes it does not make any difference in the US game.
Taking the delear's bust card is a common fallacy sufered both by ENHC players and US game players. 3rd base players often get abuse from other players for taking the dealer's bust card and this applies to both games.
In the US game if the delear has an upcard of 6 the players assume a 10 hole card and when the 3rd base hits to get a 10 and then the delear flips and shows a 10 and draws a small card, the 3rd base gets the blame for getting the delear's bust card. The players assume 10, small card to be the sequence of cards)
In ENHC exacly the same predujice applies with the players assuming that the sequence of cards is 10, 10 , small card. So when 3rd base gets the first 10 the dealer does not bust.
It is an amazing matter of selective memory when plauyers observe such sequences and blame 3rd base for losing them money and Never comment and NEVER remember when a 3rd base hit had saved the day.
For example Doubling Soft 18 (correctly under BS but inccorect by most players thinking) at 3rd base with the result of the dealer not busting will for sure makes most players shout abuse at the player where I play.
Taking the delear's bust card is a common fallacy sufered both by ENHC players and US game players. 3rd base players often get abuse from other players for taking the dealer's bust card and this applies to both games.
In the US game if the delear has an upcard of 6 the players assume a 10 hole card and when the 3rd base hits to get a 10 and then the delear flips and shows a 10 and draws a small card, the 3rd base gets the blame for getting the delear's bust card. The players assume 10, small card to be the sequence of cards)
In ENHC exacly the same predujice applies with the players assuming that the sequence of cards is 10, 10 , small card. So when 3rd base gets the first 10 the dealer does not bust.
It is an amazing matter of selective memory when plauyers observe such sequences and blame 3rd base for losing them money and Never comment and NEVER remember when a 3rd base hit had saved the day.
For example Doubling Soft 18 (correctly under BS but inccorect by most players thinking) at 3rd base with the result of the dealer not busting will for sure makes most players shout abuse at the player where I play.
June 20th, 2012 at 3:43:54 PM
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You guys are just all assuming I'm talking about an unknown card.
there is a HUGE difference in ENHC for the last to act.
in US BJ - there is a hole card and the dealer could have anything with a 7 showing (he could have a 10 and already made a hand, he could have a 4 or a 3 or even a 9)
There are too many unknowns. you have to use basic strategy which I assume was some smart people that ran through the numbers and probability of every situation.
in ENHC BJ - the dealer has to take a card 100% of the time. you know 100% of the cards he has. There is no wild card. The next card is unknown but you can have the option to take it.
In this scenario I run through all the combinations. I believe that is what the smart guys do who invent basic strategy. but I honestly do not think the same basic strategy rules apply. (and I'm ignoring the fact for this situation that ENHC has a risk of losing splits and dd to a dealer A or 10)
there is a HUGE difference in ENHC for the last to act.
in US BJ - there is a hole card and the dealer could have anything with a 7 showing (he could have a 10 and already made a hand, he could have a 4 or a 3 or even a 9)
There are too many unknowns. you have to use basic strategy which I assume was some smart people that ran through the numbers and probability of every situation.
in ENHC BJ - the dealer has to take a card 100% of the time. you know 100% of the cards he has. There is no wild card. The next card is unknown but you can have the option to take it.
In this scenario I run through all the combinations. I believe that is what the smart guys do who invent basic strategy. but I honestly do not think the same basic strategy rules apply. (and I'm ignoring the fact for this situation that ENHC has a risk of losing splits and dd to a dealer A or 10)
June 20th, 2012 at 3:50:00 PM
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If I assume the second card is a 10 (this is about as far in depth I can get with probability.....2 cards with the second card being a 10...lol)
10, J, Q, K - makes no difference. If i hit i bust if i stand I lose.
6, 7, 8, 9 - Stand = WIN; Hit = BUST/LOSE
5 - Stand = WIN; Hit = WIN
3, 4 - Stand = LOSE; Hit = WIN
2 - Stand = LOSE; Hit = WIN
A - Stand = LOSE; Hit = PUSH
If i run through the diff poss scenarios with card #2 being a 10 (I know there are lots of other scenarios). Then there are 5 cards where standing is the win vs lose. There are 3 situations where the hit wins vs. loss. And 1 situation where hit is a push vs a loss.
I calculate:
5 no diff
4 much better to stand
3 much better to hit
1 slightly better to hit
Assuming the second card is a 10, we must stand right?
I don't know if anyone has run through all the other scenarios...i guess I could but was hoping someone else has already done this.
10, J, Q, K - makes no difference. If i hit i bust if i stand I lose.
6, 7, 8, 9 - Stand = WIN; Hit = BUST/LOSE
5 - Stand = WIN; Hit = WIN
3, 4 - Stand = LOSE; Hit = WIN
2 - Stand = LOSE; Hit = WIN
A - Stand = LOSE; Hit = PUSH
If i run through the diff poss scenarios with card #2 being a 10 (I know there are lots of other scenarios). Then there are 5 cards where standing is the win vs lose. There are 3 situations where the hit wins vs. loss. And 1 situation where hit is a push vs a loss.
I calculate:
5 no diff
4 much better to stand
3 much better to hit
1 slightly better to hit
Assuming the second card is a 10, we must stand right?
I don't know if anyone has run through all the other scenarios...i guess I could but was hoping someone else has already done this.
June 20th, 2012 at 4:44:22 PM
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The only way out of your dilemma is to get Brooks Robinson to play 3rd base !
June 20th, 2012 at 8:18:00 PM
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Quote: shdw01You guys are just all assuming I'm talking about an unknown card.
there is a HUGE difference in ENHC for the last to act.
in US BJ - there is a hole card and the dealer could have anything with a 7 showing (he could have a 10 and already made a hand, he could have a 4 or a 3 or even a 9)
There are too many unknowns. you have to use basic strategy which I assume was some smart people that ran through the numbers and probability of every situation.
in ENHC BJ - the dealer has to take a card 100% of the time. you know 100% of the cards he has. There is no wild card. The next card is unknown but you can have the option to take it.
In this scenario I run through all the combinations. I believe that is what the smart guys do who invent basic strategy. but I honestly do not think the same basic strategy rules apply. (and I'm ignoring the fact for this situation that ENHC has a risk of losing splits and dd to a dealer A or 10)
Here's a detailed breakdown of 16 vs dealer's 10 in ENHC, using your what-is-the-next-card scenario.
ENHC
PLAYER STANDS PLAYER HITS
Card player dealer EV player dealer EV
1 16 BJ -1.0000 17 10 -0.4644
2 16 12 -0.0347 18 10 -0.2415
3 16 13 0.0392 19 10 -0.0187
4 16 14 0.1079 20 10 0.4350
5 16 15 0.1716 21 10 0.8117
6 16 16 0.2308 bust 10 -1.0000
7 16 17 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
8 16 18 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
9 16 19 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
Ave. -0.5758 Ave. -0.5752
See that hitting 16 vs 10 has a slightly higher EV than standing on 16 vs 10. These results were derived using your idea, but the final EV's are exactly the same as those from a regular infinite-deck analysis of ENHC.
June 20th, 2012 at 9:40:15 PM
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Quote: ChesterDogHere's a detailed breakdown of 16 vs dealer's 10 in ENHC, using your what-is-the-next-card scenario.
ENHC
PLAYER STANDS PLAYER HITS
Card player dealer EV player dealer EV
1 16 BJ -1.0000 17 10 -0.4644
2 16 12 -0.0347 18 10 -0.2415
3 16 13 0.0392 19 10 -0.0187
4 16 14 0.1079 20 10 0.4350
5 16 15 0.1716 21 10 0.8117
6 16 16 0.2308 bust 10 -1.0000
7 16 17 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
8 16 18 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
9 16 19 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
10 16 20 -1.0000 bust 10 -1.0000
Ave. -0.5758 Ave. -0.5752
See that hitting 16 vs 10 has a slightly higher EV than standing on 16 vs 10. These results were derived using your idea, but the final EV's are exactly the same as those from a regular infinite-deck analysis of ENHC.
This is awesome and exactly what I was looking for....but can you run this on 16 vs. 7. my example was a dealer with a 7. I don't think I would adjust my play at all vs a dealer 10 or A
June 21st, 2012 at 3:09:02 AM
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Quote: shdw01....but can you run this on 16 vs. 7. my example was a dealer with a 7.
ENHC 16 vs 7
PLAYER STANDS PLAYER HITS
card player dealer EV player dealer EV
1 16 18 -1.0000 17 7 -0.1068
2 16 9 -0.5431 18 7 0.3996
3 16 10 -0.5758 19 7 0.6160
4 16 11 -0.5758 20 7 0.7732
5 16 12 -0.0347 21 7 0.9259
6 16 13 0.0392 bust 7 -1.0000
7 16 14 0.1079 bust 7 -1.0000
8 16 15 0.1716 bust 7 -1.0000
9 16 16 0.2308 bust 7 -1.0000
10 16 17 -1.0000 bust 7 -1.0000
10 16 17 -1.0000 bust 7 -1.0000
10 16 17 -1.0000 bust 7 -1.0000
10 16 17 -1.0000 bust 7 -1.0000
Ave. -0.4754 Ave. -0.4148
June 21st, 2012 at 10:04:10 AM
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Quote: shdw01You guys are just all assuming I'm talking about an unknown card.
there is a HUGE difference in ENHC for the last to act.
in US BJ - there is a hole card and the dealer could have anything with a 7 showing (he could have a 10 and already made a hand, he could have a 4 or a 3 or even a 9)
There are too many unknowns. you have to use basic strategy which I assume was some smart people that ran through the numbers and probability of every situation.
in ENHC BJ - the dealer has to take a card 100% of the time. you know 100% of the cards he has. There is no wild card. The next card is unknown but you can have the option to take it.
In this scenario I run through all the combinations. I believe that is what the smart guys do who invent basic strategy. but I honestly do not think the same basic strategy rules apply. (and I'm ignoring the fact for this situation that ENHC has a risk of losing splits and dd to a dealer A or 10)
It doesn't make a difference whether the dealer's hole card is under his up card or still in the shoe - it's an unknown card. You say "in ENHC BJ - the dealer has to take a card 100% of the time." Yeah, in US BJ he has to take a card 100% of the time too - it just happens that it's already on the table. Doesn't make a difference in BS, except taking into account possible blackjacks with respect to doubling/splitting. The hit/stand decisions are all exactly the same.
Go to the the Wizard's excellent blackjack strategy calculator. Pick whatever other rules you like, then switch the "Dealer peak" rule back and forth. You will notice the only cells that change are doubling/splitting against a 10 or Ace up. For example, your situation of a 16 vs. a dealer 7 up is unchanged. You have to hit it both times.
Now you can sit here and say that "I honestly do not think the same basic strategy rules apply" and agonize over hitting that 16, or you can trust the professional actuary with a math/econ degree, who has spent his career analyzing the math of casino games. Your call on that one.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
June 25th, 2012 at 1:45:11 PM
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Quote: shdw01You guys are just all assuming I'm talking about an unknown card.
there is a HUGE difference in ENHC for the last to act.
There is absolute no difference between ENHC and the US game (excluding the Double where in ENHC you lose double your stake when dealer has BJ.
I do not think anyrhing I say will convince you except for actual numerical examples.
Example with infinite deck (means that the probability of any rank coming is always 1/13, ie 1/13 for 1..9 and 4/13 for 10)
Player has 16
Dealer has 10
You would agree that the Stand action does not make any difference between ENHC and US game.
Now the analysis for the Hit action as per your rationale
Next cards:10 Ev=0 (you burn)
Next Cards:9
June 25th, 2012 at 2:10:00 PM
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But what is the 3rd baseman hits 16 against a six up and takes the dealer's break card ?
June 25th, 2012 at 2:39:02 PM
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I think it should help to accept the Quantum Mechanics Theory of Cards: every card posseses all possible values until it is shown, depending on the type and size of deck and cards already shown.
Example:
You shuffle a standard 52-card deck and deal 5 cards face up. Suppose these are Ah, 2d, 10c, Qc and 5s. Then all the other cards in the deck simultaneaously posses every value that is not Ah, 2d, 10c, Qc or 5s.
Ditto with dice. Each face of a pair of dice in motion on a craps table posseses all six pip values until the dice come to a stop.
Naturally none of this is literally so. If it were, we woulnd't ask whether dice control is possibe. We would know it is not :)
Example:
You shuffle a standard 52-card deck and deal 5 cards face up. Suppose these are Ah, 2d, 10c, Qc and 5s. Then all the other cards in the deck simultaneaously posses every value that is not Ah, 2d, 10c, Qc or 5s.
Ditto with dice. Each face of a pair of dice in motion on a craps table posseses all six pip values until the dice come to a stop.
Naturally none of this is literally so. If it were, we woulnd't ask whether dice control is possibe. We would know it is not :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 25th, 2012 at 2:42:49 PM
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" Each face of a pair of dice in motion on a craps table posseses all six pip values until the dice come to a stop."
I did not know this was a thread on dice setting !!
I did not know this was a thread on dice setting !!
June 25th, 2012 at 2:44:35 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffI did not know this was a thread on dice setting !!
It's a corolllary.
I neglected to mention the ball in a wheel is in all slots at once until the ball stops :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
