Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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November 25th, 2012 at 8:57:09 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

It will never happen! If you are playing a negative EV game, I expect that each bet I make will have some negative expectation. If I wanted an 86% chance to win $1000 with a $10000 bankroll I can do that myself, quite easily. I have offered all 'dice influencers' and 'money management winners' an opportunity to state what they can do, and then I'll be happy to bet against them. All have an excuse to avoid the bet..... Wonder why?



What free bet have you offered me? I can take free bets all day long at the casino.

The only bets you've offered me are what I would consider sucker bets where your edge would be roughly equivalent to a fire bet or some such.

No thanks.

I would be willing to take a very sizable bet against you if you want to make a bet that doesn't give you an edge to shield you from a random loss.

If what you believe is true, you shouldn't be afraid of a free bet, but you want the edge for some reason.

Maybe it's you that has the excuse.

Again, casinos offer me free bets all day long that I often pass up. Why do I want a bet with an edge on your side? You shouldn't wonder why nobody is taking your bets!

If you want to make a bet that I would have to come up with an excuse NOT to accept, make a very sizable bet that puts the edge in my favor! Say maybe $10,000 says you can't roll 180 or fewer sevens in 1000 rolls. If note 180, then 168. If not 168 in 1000, then 166 in 996! Are you willing to take that bet with me if I were? If not then *I* wonder why! But if you want to make a point, you're going to have to offer me a BETTER bet than the casinos. Sorry!!!

You honestly can't be surprised that I'm not taking the bets you're offering so far. They are terrible bets as far as bets go that I have available for the taking.
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boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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November 25th, 2012 at 9:10:54 PM permalink
Say maybe $10,000 says you can't roll 180 or fewer sevens in 1000 rolls.

I'd take that bet. I have an 87.85% of winning.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 25th, 2012 at 9:26:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

What free bet have you offered me? I can take free bets all day long at the casino.

The only bets you've offered me are what I would consider sucker bets where your edge would be roughly equivalent to a fire bet or some such.

No thanks.

I would be willing to take a very sizable bet against you if you want to make a bet that doesn't give you an edge to shield you from a random loss.

If what you believe is true, you shouldn't be afraid of a free bet, but you want the edge for some reason.

Maybe it's you that has the excuse.

Again, casinos offer me free bets all day long that I often pass up. Why do I want a bet with an edge on your side? You shouldn't wonder why nobody is taking your bets!

If you want to make a bet that I would have to come up with an excuse NOT to accept, make a very sizable bet that puts the edge in my favor! Say maybe $10,000 says you can't roll 180 or fewer sevens in 1000 rolls. If note 180, then 168. If not 168 in 1000, then 166 in 996! Are you willing to take that bet with me if I were? If not then *I* wonder why! But if you want to make a point, you're going to have to offer me a BETTER bet than the casinos. Sorry!!!

You honestly can't be surprised that I'm not taking the bets you're offering so far. They are terrible bets as far as bets go that I have available for the taking.



Because i am not the one saying that dice can be influenced in a way that will make it useful to even talk about it! There are those (not you) who say they can BEAT the house edge, and significantly. They will sell their classes for close to a thousand dollars. Ahigh, all come up with an excuse, because they know they are just random rollers, trying to sucker someone in to paying them for some mumbo jumbo. If a DI SAYS THEY CAN LOWER 7's to say, 145 per 1000, I'll bet they cant. If they say they can lower them to 165, well, they have a 48% chance or so of doing that randomly. You know that you cannot successfully DI now, so OF COURSE you wont take any bet I offer.... duh.... If you ever come to a point where your stats show you can, you will happily take the bet....
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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November 25th, 2012 at 9:50:14 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Say maybe $10,000 says you can't roll 180 or fewer sevens in 1000 rolls.

I'd take that bet. I have an 87.85% of winning.



Right .. but I think this was sort of what SOOPOO was saying too. He made a bet that he was very likely to win.

A fair bet would be win if less than 166 in (166*6) or 996 rolls. Tie if exactly 166 in 996 rolls, and lose if more than 166 in 996 rolls.

Basically if you _really_ don't believe it's possible for me to have an edge, to be fair, you should make a fair and free bet.

That's my point.

The casino makes fair and free bets on the odds already.

I don't even claim to be able to influence the dice myself. I don't sell any classes. But I am pursuing the possibility and putting together as much evidence as I can that it might be possible. Including demonstrating what I can actually do in real casinos .. even if it's just landing the dice where I say I am going to land them or bounce them the way I am intending to bounce them.

I have control of the dice .. if not control of the outcome.

But I am not making false claims. I am providing evidence to suggest that it might be possible. Not proof, just evidence that makes you wonder (or at least makes me wonder).

I may be willing to take a free bet against SOOPOO for a large sum of money, and if he truly doesn't believe that I can have an edge, I don't see why he wouldn't be willing to take a free bet against me.

Even if it's not SOOPOO, anybody willing to take a bet that I can't make more pairs than sevens in some multiple of 6 rolls of 600 or more rolls, give me how many rolls and how much money you'd be willing to bet.

I don't think many people would give me a free bet on that for more than $500, and I'd be very inclined to take it if they did. And that belief of mine is my evidence that some people might actually be afraid of being somewhat less likely than 50% to win that bet.
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Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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November 26th, 2012 at 12:13:07 AM permalink
I'm thinking more about this, and yeah, I think I prefer to take my bets with the casino just because they are a better deal.

But SOOPOO needs to appreciate this fact too. Basically there's no incentive for anyone to take a bet with him in general. At least none of the bets that I've been offered.

I'm trying to be objective, and I like SOOPOO, so this is not an attack on him, just defending at least why I wouldn't take any bets he's offered me.

Also, it is WAY easier to believe the way you guys believe that everything is random. Taking or even not taking these bets is generally sort of swallowing the red pill sort of subscribing to the method of thinking employed in general by the intellectually biased members of this forum.

I'm a smart guy too, but probably a little more open minded than most people I've met so far from this forum (at least not as likely to just subscribe to conventional wisdom on the topic of "100% pure randomness" explaining everything with what happens with the dice).
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biggins
biggins
Joined: Aug 17, 2011
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November 26th, 2012 at 5:27:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Hey guys. Funny this thread got floated back up.

I went off and started my own forum since then.

Since this post, I have been playing craps on average about 3 hours a day every day for a couple of years now.

I started my own forum, and while I admire this forum very much, I enjoy having my own little private area on my forum.

I really only have just a couple of people on my forum, and I'm _not_ trying to see how many people I can get on there, but I am pushing as far as I can in areas nobody else is pushing on. Not just in one area, but as many areas as possible. This is not a forum for beginner players, and I don't generally tell people how to play. But it's more of a laboratory for investigating the game in more depth, I guess. But research into the realities of dice control is one area that I do spend a considerable amount of time.

If anybody else is hard-core into craps, specifically into the math, statistics, or physics of how the dice bounce on the table, send me a PM and I would be more than happy to talk with you.

Also, since it's generally known, I should disclose that I do work for the slot machine maker, IGT as a research engineer. I play craps because it's just easier for me to separate my work and my free time that way since I do slot machine stuff all day at work.

I take craps & BJ very seriously. But I have to admit, when I see what you have going.....YOU'RE THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!1

But I do push pretty hard on the technical side of the game of craps. I currently have quite a bit invested into my laboratory.

Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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November 26th, 2012 at 6:29:10 PM permalink
" I'm a smart guy too, but probably a little more open minded than most people I've met so far from this forum."

No one ever said, that I remember, that you were not intelligent. But having an opinion different from most is not indicative
of open mindedness. Just a willingness to express a different opinion !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Yokeoh
Yokeoh
Joined: Feb 18, 2013
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February 18th, 2013 at 7:59:17 AM permalink
Heres my story. In the '80s i used to do daytrips to vegas and gambled quite a bit at binions when the limits were $2. At the time i resorted to a seven set as my roll based on the fact that the dice should not show it after bouncing around. One time the dice passed to me and some guy threw what looked like a 3-4 inch stack of green chips each on the hard 6 & 8. I hit the hard 6 and he bellowed some green for the shooter so i got a green chip a few rolls later i hit the hard 8 and more green for the shooter got two greens and then a few rolls later i hit the hard 6 and he throws me a black chip in the end i never made my point and actually won more from him then on my roll. He went and cashed out after my seven and they were paying this guy with stacks of yellow chips to this day i don't know why a complete stranger would do that

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